If yesterday one could "explain" the overnight stock levitation due to the move higher in crude oil, today there is no such catalyst with WTI down modestly, and yet the broader push higher across European stocks and US equities has reappeared following yesterday's muted close on Wall Street ahead of key central bank data on deck.
Amid China's accelerating economic slowdown, the country's overall index of loan demand was at 55.7 in the third quarter, the lowest since the People’s Bank of China started to compile the data in 2004.
"I think what's going on in China is troubling ... some of the valuations there are really quite extraordinary... We've double checked these numbers about seven times, because I found them quite hard to believe."
As the Vancouver housing bubble bursts spectacularly, sending luxury home sales plunging by 65% in one month, the ravenous Chinese money-laundered have found a new, and more hospitable Canadian city where to park their cash: Toronto.
“Buying equities will put additional pressure on corporate CEOs to cut expenses and to postpone investments, fostering even greater Main Street resentment toward the financial elite. Consumer confidence won’t rise as consumption and economic growth stagnate. Having so clearly sided with owners of capital, rather than the employees of capital, global central banks are likely to become an easy target for populist ire.”
What was until now a mostly regional housing bubble issue, is starting to spread in the form of a hit to Canadian consumer confidence. Meanwhile, the British Columbia expectations sub-index, which measures the outlook for housing and the economy, plunged by the most since July 2013 to 60.9.
As momentum builds in the developing deflationary spiral, we are seeing increasingly desperate measures to keep the global credit ponzi scheme from its inevitable conclusion. Credit bubbles are dynamic - they must grow continually or implode - hence they require ever more money to be lent into existence. As the peak of a credit bubble is reached, all these necessary factors first become problematic and then cease to be available at all. Past a certain point, there are hard limits to financial expansions, and the global economy is set to hit one imminently.
Confirming anecdotal evidence that the Vancouver housing bubble has burst, according to yesterday's real estate board data, Vancouver home sales fell 26% from a year earlier and 23% from July. The average price of a detached property declined 17% on the month, the lowest since September 2015. And this is just the beginning.
After a muted end to August, September started off on the strong foot overnight following a surprising beat in China's official manufacturing PMI print, which rose above 50 to the highest level in almost two years. That, together with a record rebound in the UK PMI, bolstered investor confidence, fueling gains in stocks and industrial metals. The dollar advanced against most of its peers while bonds retreated before Friday’s payrolls report.
September will be quite a busy month for investors since there are around 30 major central banks meetings scheduled. Since the Bank of England’s last policy announcement, the total monthly amount in global official quantitative easing has reached almost $200 billion, which corresponds, for the purpose of comparison, to Portugal’s annual GDP in 2015. Long-rumoured and oft-discussed, QE infinity is now a reality.