“A predicted global meltdown passed without event. But there are enough warning signs to suggest we are sleepwalking into another disaster”.
"... we have more single short names than long positions in our book today. We have reduced our net exposure by nearly a third through sales and new shorts over the past few months."
China's Manufacturing Misses; Nonmanufacturing Worst Since 2008 Despite Unprecedented $1 Trillion "Debt Injection"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/01/2015 08:38 -0500
The most anticipated economic release over the weekend was the early glimpse into China's manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors via the two key PMI surveys released by China's National Bureau of Statistics, to get a sense if the slowdown across China is stabilizing or, as some have suggested, rebounding. It did not: overnight the NBS reported that the manufacturing PMI remained unchanged in October at 49.8 missing consensus estimates of a modest rebound to 50.0, its third consecutive month in contraction territory.
To believe this isn’t a bubble is to believe that all of the hot momo money from insti’s, high/biotech, flipper, flappers, fraudsters, and foreigners buying houses is fundamental and here to stay, which is exactly what everybody thought in 2006. Or, to believe that interest rates will keep falling 1% per year going forward, which would lend an element of support to prices.
Investors are aware that the market is manipulated... and it doesn’t seem to worry them. They don’t fight the Fed; they sit down at the table with it. They play the game. And so far, they have done well. But now... She will signal that, soon, the central bank will begin the long return to “normalcy.” Don’t believe it. The entire system depends on abnormality.
The bottom line: the gross profit from a "flip" in any of these 20 markets will result in an average profit of just over 102% in as little under 7 months. Good luck.
"House prices have decoupled most from local incomes in Hong Kong, London, Paris, Singapore, New York and Tokyo. Buying a 60-square-meter apartment exceeds the budget of most people who work even in the highly-skilled service sector. Loose monetary policy has prevented a normalization of housing markets and encouraged local bubble risks to grow"
For generations, single family housing development was a driver of US economic growth. Today, there is no single family housing industry to speak of. These 7 charts derived from this week’s release of new house sales data from the Census Bureau illustrates just how bad things are.
A bursting of property bubbles in London and New York would be expected to have an impact on national economies and indeed on national property markets. Sentiment would be badly impacted. Caution should be the order of the day.
- Fed puts December rate hike firmly on the agenda (Reuters)
- Charting the Markets: A More Hawkish Fed Rattles Investors (BBG)
- China to modernize and improve fiscal and tax systems (Reuters)
- Deutsche Bank to Cut 35,000 Jobs in Overhaul (WSJ)
- Deutsche Bank Said to Near $200 Million Sanctions Settlement (BBG)
- Barclays profits drop as it abandons cost-cutting targets (FT)
World's Largest Sovereign Wealth Fund Has Worst Quarter In 4 Years After Losing 21% On Chinese StocksSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/28/2015 12:41 -0500
Norway's $860 billion sovereign wealth fund (tasked with managing the country's vast oil wealth) just had its worst quarter in 4 years and its first back-to-back quarterly loss since 2009 after an array of EM bets went awry. Meanwhile, the government is set to start making withdraws from the fund as slumping crude prices have effectively reduced inflows to zero.
Fearing the size of Mario Draghi's bazooka (so to speak), Sweden's Riksbank has just expanded QE by SEK65 billion, marking the fourth expansion in nine months and serving notice that the beggar-thy-neighbor, monetary madness gripping DM central banks isn't likely to dissipate anytime soon.
If this is indeed a rerun of the post-LTCM/pre first tech bubble days, then oil is about to soar by 150%