Housing Bubble

China's "Ghost Collateral" Arrives In Canada, "Heralding A Crisis"

"We all know that the ghost collateral is a huge deal, and we all know that the shadow banking and other Chinese influence in Vancouver is profound. The issue is that the ghost collateral ends up re-hypothecated and laundered. So by the time it shows up in Vancouver, it will likely just look like a rich Chinese cash buyer with a suitcase of money.“

When Will The Fed Tighten Enough To Cause The Next Recession?

In trying to answer "When will the Fed tighten enough to cause the next recession", Deutsche Bank says that while current market expectations suggest the next recession (or at least the next Fed tightening that would be forceful enough to cause a recession) could still be many years away, the bank "thinks this is too optimistic." Here's why

Reflexivity And Why The Fed Must Sell The Long End

"If the Fed were to just let its balance sheet 'run off', it would cause additional pressure on short-term interest rates even as policy rates are rising. It could also potentially invert or further distort the front-end of the yield curve and destabilize the money markets... It would, therefore, behoove the Fed to sell some of its longer dated Treasury holdings to steepen the yield curve."

China's "Bubble Prophet" Sees Unprecedented Surge In Home Prices

"We’re living through a bubble. We’re kicking the can down the road by buying time not to keep things in check, but to blow the bubble into an even bigger one. What’s happened over the past two years has made any new reforms even more difficult to roll out."

May Day, May Day, May Day

Is it sheer hubris, or is it just incompetence? It’s a question often asked when it comes to politics. And regularly, the answer is both.

Spanish Banking Crisis Spreads As Banco Popular Credit Curve Inverts

Having told its employees "don't panic" over the weekend (at the crashing stock and bond prices of Spain's 6th largest bank), it appears investors are ignoring that message as Banco Popular's credit curve has inverted for the first time since 2012 in the biggest red flag yet that Spain's banking crisis is systemic and about to test the EU's bail-in laws.

Will Millennials Ever Become A Generation Of Homeowners: BofA Has A Troubling Answer

"While young adults can generally afford housing, there are other constraints including the ability to make a large enough downpayment and tighter credit standards. Lifestyle changes are partly to blame.  These dynamics won't change in the medium-term which should translate to a lower equilibrium pace for single family housing starts."