Housing Bubble

Building Permits Plunge Most In 11 Months Amid Multi-Family Slump

Following January's 'Trump-bump', building permits in February plunged 6.2% MoM, the biggest drop since March 2016 (amid global recession fears), driven by a tumble in multi-family units. While housing starts rose 3% MoM, the annual growth slipped back to 6.2%, again fading Trump exuberance, despite a 12 year high in builder confidence.

Canada Flagged For Recession By BIS

As if Canadians needed more proof that the country’s real estate is in a bubble, and that this misallocation has spread to other sectors of the economy, the BIS latest quarterly report confirms what any critical observer can see: binging on debt is rarely a good idea.

Risk-Ignorance Reaches 23 Year High As Short Interest Hits Record Low

Investors are willing to pay more for a given level of risk than at any time since 1994 and short interest has collapsed to record lows... "if The Fed follows through on its convictions, look for a flat yield curve and a recession to wipe out 50% of equity prices for the third time in the past seventeen years."

Raising Interest Rates Can't End Well

"The economy looks to me like a type of Ponzi Scheme. It depends on both rising energy consumption and rising debt. Judging from the problems we are having now, it seems to be reaching its limit in the near term. Raising interest rates will tend to push it even further toward its limit, or over the limit. The world economy is operating at too close to 'stall speed'. The financial system is too fragile."

The Paradox Of Our Times: Record Assets, Record Debt, & Record Depression

"It is surely one of the primary reasons why many if not most people have so much trouble accepting the trouble the economy is in... despite asset price levels and even record debt, all those prove is just how disconnected those places have become from what used to be an efficient way to redistribute financial resources."

Crude Plunges Below $49, Dragging Markets Lower; All Eyes On Draghi

While trader attention will soon be focused on the ECB and any potential tightening hints from the central bank, a more pressing development as US traders walk in today, will be ongoing collapse in WTI, which after crashing 5.5% yesterday, has tumbled more than 2% this morning, sliding not only below $50 for the first time since December 1, but also dropped under $49, as a near record number of net long spec positions suddenly rushes to unwind their exposure.