Housing Market

Global Stocks, Futures Continue Rise On Apple, Japan Stimulus; Yellen On Deck

The markets were following a rollercoaster night for the Japanese Yen, when after several media headlines Abe was said to have announced a stimulus package that would be more than JPY28 trillion, sending Japanese stocks higher 1.7% while the USDJPY spiked but well off overnight highs, pushing risk assets higher. Europe and US futs were also in the green on optimism from AAPL's earnings, but all eyes will be on today's FOMC announcement.

Frontrunning: July 26

  • Priest killed in French church before police shoot dead hostage-takers (Reuters)
  • On raucous opening night, Democratic stars make a pitch for Clinton (Reuters)
  • Sanders Backs Clinton After Fractious Opening of Convention (BBG)
  • Some in Sanders' army seem determined to march on without him (Reuters)
  • Yen hits two-week high as Japanese stimulus expectations dialled back (Reuters)

Vancouver Finally Cracks Down On Chinese Home Buyers With 15% Real Estate Tax

The British Columbia government finally took our advice to stem hot money inflows into real estate by announcing a 15% transfer tax on foreign nationals who buy real estate in Metro Vancouver.  Finance Minister Mike de Jong unveiled the tax, which will take effect on August 2nd, after recent housing data revealed that foreign nationals spent more than $1 billion on British Columbia property between June 10 and July 14, or a mere $28.6mm per day.

The "New Housing Crisis" – Not Enough Rental Homes?

The real crisis is not a lack of homes for people to buy, just a lack of enough homes for people to rent. Which says more about the “real economy” than just about anything else. While there are many hopes pinned on the housing recovery as a “driver” of economic growth in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 – the lack of recovery in the home ownership data suggests otherwise.

US Futures Rebound Despite Global Stock Weakness As USDJPY Ramps HIgher

After breaking a multi-year stretch of 9 daily record highs in the Dow Jones, overnight global markets saw some early weakness with Asian stocks retreating after BOJ chief Kuroda dashed hopes for so-called helicopter money, triggering yen’s steepest rally in a month and pulling the Nikkei lower by 1.1%. This however did not last long, and around the European open the traditional ramp in the USDJPY helped European equities shrug off early downside, while US equity futures have already recovered half of yesterday's losses.

Existing Home Prices Hit Record High As Sales Growth Slowest In 4 Months

Despite a better than expected 1.1% MoM rise in June (thanks to notable downward revisions), existing home sales growth is the slowest since February. Of course, NAR's Larry Yun gloated of "sustained job growth" driving an "impressive streak of sales gains," although he cautions " it's unclear if this current sales pace can further accelerate." Median home prices soared to new record highs driven by soaring demand for condo/co-ops (+3.2% vs just 0.8% for single-family homes).

US Futures Rise To Session Highs, Set For Another Record Open; Global Stocks Jump

After yesterday's positive close in the Dow Jones, which hasn't had a losing day since July 7 and which took the series of consecutive green closes to 8 in a row - the longest stretch since 2013 - the index will look to lock in its 9th green day in a row with futures currently trading well in the green. It's not just the US - equities edged higher in Asia and Europe as positive earnings results from some of the world’s biggest companies countered concern the global economy is losing steam. The dollar strengthened while gold retreated.

US Futures Dip, European Stocks Slide After EU Court Slams Italian Bank Bailout Plans

After a head-scratching S&P500 rally - which not even Goldman has been able to justify - pushed stocks to new all time highs with seemingly daily record highs regardless of fundamentals or geopolitical troubles, overnight US equity futures dipped modestly, tracking weak European stocks as demand for safe haven assets including U.S. Treasuries and gold rises. Asian stocks outside Japan fall. Crude oil trades near $45 a barrel. 

US Futures Rebound Sharply From Friday's Coup Fears, Focus Shifts To M&A

Having panciked briefly on Friday night on news of a Turkish coup, which has since not only failed but been cast away as speculation rises that it was staged and designed to give Erdogan even more authoritarian power, markets have moved on and are now focusing on the main overnight event which was the surprising $32 billion bid by Japan's SoftBank for U.K.’s semiconductor giant ARM which has sent comparable semis higher in European trading and pushing the Stoxx Europe 600 Index up by 0.6%, after surging 3.2% last week. After sliding sharply on Friday, US equity futures are up 0.1% in early trading.

UK Luxury Property Sales Collapse Post-Brexit

Things just went to '11' on the Spinal Tap amplifier of Britain's property market. Having detailed the numerous 'dominoes' that have begun to fall, and the start of forced real asset liquidations, the hard data from Britain's Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors suggests Brexit just killed the British housing market... and even more crucially, as Bloomberg reports, a measure of London (luxury) home-price changes crashed to its weakest since the financial crisis as the U.K.’s vote to leave the EU sent shock waves across the nation.

Weekend Reading: If I Was Janet Yellen

Unfortunately, for Janet, this is the 'trap'. The liquidity will dry up, the inventory restocking cycle will end, and the next “crisis” will be on the horizon with Ms. Yellen remaining stuck near the “zero bound.”  The past opportunities to “normalize” interest rate policy have come and gone. This opportunity will likely pass also and, as always, the Fed will realize far too late they are trapped. But by then, it won’t matter much to investors, or what’s left of them, anyway.

Ackman Crushed: Herbalife Soars 14% After FTC Concludes "Not A Pyramid Scheme"

Two years after Bill Ackman unleashed the longest presentation in the world and battled Carl Icahn over his "take it to the grave" short position in Herbalife, it seems the hedge fund manager just got a death blow from The FTC: FTC SAID TO DETERMINE HERBALIFE IS NOT PYRAMID SCHEME, TO ANNOUNCE $200M SETTLEMENT TODAY: DJ And HLF is soaring 14% in the pre-market... well above Ackman's short entry level from July 2014.