Housing Market

Yesterday afternoon's "recovery" has come and gone, because just like that, in a matter of minutes, stuff just broke once again courtsy of a USDJPY which has been a one way liquidation street since hitting 106.30 just before Europe open to 105.6 as of this writing: U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD DROPS 15 BASIS POINTS TO 1.99%; S&P FUTURES PLUNGE 23PTS, OR 1.2%, AS EU STOCKS DROP 2.54%.

Only this time Europe is once again broken with periphery yields exploding, after Spain earlier failed to sell the maximum target of €3.5 billion in bonds, instead unloading only €3.2 billion, and leading to this: PORTUGAL 10-YR BONDS EXTEND DROP; YIELD CLIMBS 30 BPS TO 3.58%; IRISH 10-YEAR BONDS EXTEND DECLINE; YIELD RISES 20 BPS TO 1.90%; SPANISH 10-YEAR BONDS EXTEND DROP; YIELD JUMPS 29 BPS TO 2.40%.

And the punchline, as usual, is Greece, whose 10 Year is now wider by over 1% on the session(!), to just about 9%.

Central banks have reached a fork in the road.

According to Wells Q3 Earnings Supplement, while Mortgage Applications declined from a transitory one year high of $72 billion in Q2 to $64 billion, this number is going far lower. The reason: Wells' Morgage Application Pipeline just tumbled back to $25 billion, matching the lowest number since Lehman, and putting an end to any debate about the state of the US housing market.

Today US activity will be very light given the Columbus Day holiday. As DB summarizes, we have a relatively quiet day for data watchers today but the calendar will pick up tomorrow and beyond with a big focus on inflation numbers amongst other things. Indeed tomorrow will see the release of Germany’s ZEW survey alongside CPI prints from the UK, France and Spain. Wednesday’s data highlights will include the US retail sales for September, the Fed’s Beige Book, CPI readings from China and Germany, US PPI, and the NY Fed Empire State survey. Draghi will speak twice on Wednesday which could also be a source for headlines. On Thursday, we will get Industrial Production stats and the Philly Fed Survey from the US on top of the usual weekly jobless claims. European CPI will also be released on Wednesday. We have the first reading of October’s UofM Consumer Sentiment on Friday along with US building permits/housing starts. Yellen’s speech at the Boston Fed Conference on Friday (entitled “Inequality of Economic Opportunity”) will also be closely followed.

• Privately, Saudis tell oil market: get used to lower prices (Reuters)
• OPEC Members’ Rift Deepens Amid Falling Oil Prices (WSJ)
• Russia Spending $6 Billion Not Enough to Stop Ruble Rout on Oil (BBG)
• Deutsche clampdown on bad behaviour prompts exodus of traders (FT)
• Can't beat the spin: China trade data eases slowdown fears, more stimulus may still be needed (Reuters)
• China’s Exports Buoy Growth as IPhone Inflates Imports (BBG)
• Italy on Sale to Chinese Investors as Recession Bites (BBG)
• Hong Kong Protesters, Antiprotest Activists Clash (WSJ)
• Turkey Offers Military Bases to U.S.-Led Coalition (BBG) ... and the price is a small piece of post-Assad Syria
• Passenger With Flu-Like Symptoms Causes Ebola Scare At LAX (CBS)
• Boston patient deemed unlikely to have Ebola virus (Boston Globe)

Late into Friday's major market selloff, a completely unfounded rumor emerged out of nowhere, seeking to rekindle the BTFD spirits, that with central bank intervention from both the BOJ and ECB already priced in, and with the Fed still in taper mode (if not for much longer should the S&P dump accelerate), that the last central-planner wildcard, China, would join the fray and a major monetary gusher would come out of Beijing over the weekend to halt the slide. Alas, we have bad news for said BTFDers: just hours before futures are set to open on Sunday afternoon, the chief economist at China’s central bank said Saturday that he doesn’t see any reason for large-scale fiscal or monetary stimulus “in the foreseeable future” despite slowing growth in the world’s second-largest economy and disagreements about the depth and timing of economic overhauls.... Part of China’s “new normal,” he said, is that “big stimulus” won’t be called for every time growth decelerates. “And secondly, the new norm will involve a lot of rebalancing in terms of changing the economic structure.”

What if there was some degrees of freedom in the centrally planned capital markets that rational, non-emotional and non-ideologically-laden thinking could shed light on ? Here is such an attempt

While the memory of a financial market participant can be measured in nanoseconds, it appears that the average American has also become goldfish-like as RealtyTrac reports a total of 797,865 home equity lines of credit were originated nationwide, up 20.6% from a year ago and the highest level since 2008. As Jim Quinn so eloquently notes, after a two year Wall-Street-engineered fraudulent boost in home prices in the exact markets that led the bubble in 2003 through 2007, the delusional dolts are now acting like the increase in home equity is real: As RealtyTrac's Blomquist exudes, "this recent rise in HELOC originations indicates that an increasing number of homeowners are gaining confidence in the strength of the housing recovery."

• It wasn't Obama this time: Pakistani teen, Indian activist win Nobel Peace Prize (Reuters)
• Surging VIX Shakes Bulls as S&P 500 Charts Go Haywire (BBG)
• Global shares hit six-month low as growth worries mount (Reuters)
• Police, protesters clash in St. Louis ahead of weekend of rallies (Reuters)
• We're Sitting on 10 Billion Barrels of Oil! OK, Two (BBG)
• Spain seeks answers as seven more enter Ebola isolation (Reuters)
• Iran will sell its oil to Asia in November at the biggest discount (BBG)
• Redefining honeypot: U.S. DEA 'most interested' in U.S. investors in Canadian marijuana firms (Reuters)
• UKIP Wins First Commons District With Conservative Defector (BBG)
• Fake Ebola Patients Help Hospitals Prepare for Next Case (BBG)

Low interest rates are a direct cause of credit bubbles, and this is what is happening in Singapore

The take-away from last month’s housing data was that “the market was returning to normal”, which despite the persevering weakness, was viewed as a “great thing”. This overly-simplistic and flawed assumption was made, as the all-cash cohort demand dramatically cooled and distressed supply and sales plunged YoY. What people are suffering from is a lack of a medium-term memory, as what’s happening today happened in 2007/08; “Peak Housing” It was the stimulus-driven, unorthodox “things” that drove the “V” bottom in demand and prices yet again, not coincidentally from exactly the time in 2011 that Twist was first announced and yields plunged. Although 2003-07 and 2011-13 were basically the same in nature, a big difference is that this stimulus-cycle was much greater in stimulus input over a shorter period of time than from 2003 to 2007. If stimulus “hangovers” are proportional to the amount of stimulus that preceded them, then this one could be a doozy.

• As we warned in May 2013... Gross Exposes $42 Trillion Bond Market’s Key Flaw in Exit (BBG).... hint: no liquidity
• WTI Crude Slips Below $90 for First Time in 17 Months (BBG)
• Traders Thank Fed for Once-in-Decade Surge in Profit (BBG)
• Islamic State committing 'staggering' crimes in Iraq: U.N. report (Reuters)
• Philippine Islamist militants threaten to behead German on October 17 (Reuters)
• Draghi’s Buying Spree for the ECB Might Start Modestly (BBG)
• Russian Officials Say No Plans for Capital Controls (WSJ)
• Indians Join the Wave of Investors in Condos and Homes in the U.S. (NYT)
• Leader of Mexican drugs cartel captured (FT)
• Dallas Ebola patient vomited outside apartment on way to hospital (Reuters)

The ultra high end of US housing is now sliding fast, and that unless some other central banks steps up and resumes the injections of some $100 billion in outside money into inflating asset prices such as stocks and billionaire mansions, then all bets are soon off.

At the heart of the problem is the fact that the Federal Reserve’s manipulation of the money supply prevents interest rates from telling the truth: How much are people really choosing to save out of income, and therefore how much of the society’s resources — land, labor, capital — are really available to support sustainable investment activities in the longer run? What is the real cost of borrowing, independent of Fed distortions of interest rates, so businessmen could make realistic and fair estimates about which investment projects might be truly profitable, without the unnecessary risk of being drawn into unsustainable bubble ventures? All that government produces from its interventions, regulations, and manipulations is false signals and bad information.