Housing Market

If this weekend's gruesome terrorist attack on Paris ended up being hugely bullish for stocks, then two subsequent events, a stadium-evacuation scare in Hannover (where Angela Merkel was supposed to be present) and a raid in north Paris which left several dead in the ongoing manhunt against the alleged ISIS mastermind, appear to have but some question into if not stocks then algos whether a rising wave of terrorist hatred across Europe is truly what central bankers need to unleash more QE. That said, we expect the current weakness to last only until the traditional USDJPY carry ramp pushes stocks traditionally higher.

Who would have thought terrorism is so good for stocks.

As so often happens in these upside down days, was the best thing that could happen to the market, because another economic slowdown means the BOJ, even without sellers of JGBs, will have no choice but to expand its "stimulus" program (the same one that led Japan to its current predicament of course) and buy up if not government bonds, then corporate bonds, more ETFs (of which it already own 50%) and ultimately stocks. Because there is nothing better for the richest asset owners than total economic collapse.

How much did the PBoC spend propping up China's stock market in Q3? By how much did they overpay? How likely are they to take an outsized loss? BofAML takes a look.

“The bubble may already have burst” for the most expensive homes, Barber said. Now, "36 percent of all properties currently on the market across prime central London are being marketed at a lower price than they were originally listed at, with the average reduction in price being 8.5 percent."

The housing recovery without mortgage originations is coming to its inevitable conclusion.

"It is a bloodbath. We’re at the highest point of fear and uncertainty now.... God only knows what’ll happen if oil doesn’t rebound. I try not to let that penetrate my mind."

It is important to note that the current weakness of gold is primarily in dollar and sterling terms. For investors in Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the EU gold is once again acting as a hedge.

If 2014 was the year that saw the return of No Income, No Job, No Assets (NINJA), and Stated Income, Stated Assets (SISA, or "plug in random numbers") mortgage loan applications, then the current three recent ads shown below, demonstrate just how further down the subprime rabbit hole we have fallen in 2015. One can only imagine what happens in 2016.

In case you have been hibernating, the European Union (EU) is already in a complete state of disarray. Everywhere you look - economy, politics, security, society, demographics - there are very serious problems with no credible solution in sight. This does not bode well for the future of the EU, starting with those who will be living in it.  The EU doesn't need any nationalists to destroy its future prospects. It’s doing absolutely fine on its own.

There were a few different stories coming out over the last few days that reveal the true nature of government and the apparatchiks who use disinformation, devious machinations, fraudulent accounting, and taxpayer money to cover up their criminality, lies, and the true state of the American economy. The use of government accounting tricks to obscure the truth about our dire financial straits is designed to keep the masses sedated and confused.

• BOE Stays Cautious on Rate-Hike Timing as Inflation Outlook Cut (BBG)
• China Enters Bull Market (WSJ)
• Britain says Islamic State likely brought down Russian plane (Reuters)
• Dollar jumps as markets fix on December rate expectations (Reuters)
• Activist Investor Bill Ackman Plays Defense (WSJ)
• BOJ Survey Data Reveals Signs of Growing Inequality in Japan (BBG)
• UAW Warns of General Motors Strike If Workers Fail to Approve Contract (WSJ)

"zero interest rate policy actually reduces demand in the economy, prompting the Federal Reserve to prescribe even further doses of a medicine that, for a long time, has been impeding rather than promoting economic recovery."

- JPM's David Kelly

On a day full of Manufacturing/PMI surveys from around the globe, the numbers everyone was looking at came out of China, where first the official, NBS PMI data disappointed after missing Mfg PMI expectations (3rd month in a row of contraction), with the Non-mfg PMI sliding to the lowest since 2008, however this was promptly "corrected" after the other Caixin manufacturing PMI soared to 48.3 in October from 47.2 in September - the biggest monthly rise of 2015 - and far better than the median estimate of 47.6, once again leading to the usual questions about China's Schrodinger economy, first defined here, which is continues to expand and contract at the same time.

Time and time again, I’m hearing the same sticking points for failing to prepare – for failing to assure a more promising future for themselves and their families.