Housing Market

"Global Market Rout" - Bond Selloff Snowballs Into Stock Liquidations On "Stimulus Pullback" Fears

With traders in the US arriving at their desks, the global selling appears to be accelerating and as Bloomberg notes, "a selloff in fixed income is starting to snowball into a global market rout" driven by what Reuters dubbed "growing concerns that global central banks' commitment to the post-crisis orthodoxy of super-low interest rates and asset purchase programs may be waning."

Time To Get Real, Part 2: "We Need Their Drugs"

On the current path, the world is experiencing the largest artificial asset allocation in modern history, one that is driven by a misguided interest rate regime that has lost its efficacy and is producing more harm than good. Yet the fear of withdrawal pain is keeping central bankers from doing the inevitable: Quit. The response is predictable: "I need the drugs!"

With All Eyes On The ECB, Catatonic Global Markets Remain In State Of Near Paralysis

As the market's comatose trading range continues with no notable moves for nearly 40 consecutive days, there is some hope volatility may return after today's main event, the ECB's announcement due in just two hours, when Mario Draghi may surprise the market in either direction. As of today, the S&P500 has held in a band of 1.5% for 39 days, the narrowest ever for that length of time.

Frontrunning: September 7

  • Trump and Clinton look to pass U.S. commander-in-chief test (Reuters)
  • Undecided GOP-Leaning Voters Provide an Opening for Donald Trump (WSJ)
  • Stage set for iPhone 7, but many await 8 (Reuters)
  • Dollar Slides Versus Yen as Prospect of September Fed Hike Dims (BBG)
  • World stocks hit one-year highs as Fed hike prospects fade (Reuters)
  • Merkel strikes back, defends migrant policy after election rout (Reuters)

Vancouver Home Sales Crash 23% In One Month As Prices Tumble

Confirming anecdotal evidence that the Vancouver housing bubble has burst, according to yesterday's real estate board data, Vancouver home sales fell 26% from a year earlier and 23% from July. The average price of a detached property declined 17% on the month, the lowest since September 2015. And this is just the beginning.

Fear Spreads Of A Housing Crash In Canada

In Vancouver’s once white-hot commercial real estate market, the hunt is now on for Chinese buyers as big institutional investors are trying to unload.

Pending Home Sales Tumble For 2nd Month In A Row

Thanks to a series of negative revisions, pending home sales have now tumbled YoY for two consecutive months (dropping 2.2% in July versus an expectation of a 2.2% rise). The revisions enabled the MoM print of +1.3% to beat expectations optically (thanks to a surge in The West sales +7.3%). The good news for affordability is that NAR's Larry Yun notes homebuilders focusing down-market; the bad news, obviously, is that more supply will disable the low-inventory bid holding prices up at record highs. Probably time to hike rates...

Existing Home Sales Crush Recovery Narrative, Plunge Most Since Nov 2015

Following yesterday's 7 standard deviation beat in New Home Sales, Existing Home Sales for July missed expectations by 2 standard deviations dropping 1.64% YoY - the first annual decline since Nov 2015. The blame for this collapse - according to NAR's Larry Yun - is "frustratingly low inventory levels."

S&P Set For New Record Highs As Futures, Dollar Rise; Oil Slides

In a rerun of yesterday's overnight session, European indexes trade higher while US index futures were modestly in the green, set to propel the S&P 500 to new all time highs. Emerging Market dropped the most in three weeks alongside commodities, as today the market was predisposed hawkishly on a US rate hike ahead of Yellen's Friday speech, pushing the US dollar higher and oil resumed its pre "anonymous sources" headlines slide.