With October, the worst month for stocks since January, now in the history books S&P futures are eager to telegraph that the streak of five consecutive will end, with a modest gain of 0.3% in overnight trading, coupled with mixed global markets as the global bond selloff returned after strong Chinese economic data prompted concerns about rising global inflation.
"Debt in China has grown by US$4.5 trillion over the past 12 months, by far the highest amount of debt creation globally as compared to US$2.2 trillion in the US, US$870 billion in Japan and US$550 billion in the euro area. Indeed, China on its own has added more debt than the US, Japan and the euro area combined."
Pending Home Sales are following the usual seasonal pattern, fading quickly after the summer jump. Year-over-year, pending home sales are up just 2% (NSA), less than the expected 4% rise and considerably slower than the same time last year.
"Everything is awesome," right? According to the non-seasonally adjusted S&P CoreLogic (Case-Shiller) Home Price index, prices have recovered all of their losses and are back at the highest since June 2006 record highs in August. All 20 cities saw home prices rises year-over-year (and 14 up MoM) but we note that this data does lag the disappointing home sales data from September.
European, Asian stocks and S&P futures are all up again in early trading, a repeat of the Monday session, buoyed by a generally upbeat corporate earnings season, rising economic confidence and signs of improvement in the world’s biggest economies. After Charles Evans' hawkish comments on Monday, the market is now pricing in a 71% chance of a rate increase this year, up from 68% last week.
China Oceanwide Holdings, a Chinese financial conglomerate, agreed to buy US insurer Genworth Financial for $2.7 billion in cash, a 4% premium to closing, and pledging to help the U.S. firm manage its debt and strengthen life insurance units after it was hurt by higher-than-expected losses tied to long-term care coverage.
US futures were little changed, with European shares lower, and Asian stocks higher as caution returned after last night's Chinese economic data did little to clear up how the world's second largest economy is performing, and provided few positives for investors ahead of the third and final U.S. presidential debate; imminent announcements from both the ECB and the Fed also will keep traders on their toes today.
".. that was one of the biggest mistakes the central banks made during the financial crisis: They stopped the debt from blowing up. So we never had a cleansing... we are still solving the too-much-debt-problem with too much debt... the Fed is still saying We will make money for free and you just need to borrow more money, and that's its solution to having too much debt. It's insane when you look at it. "
If yesterday's session was marked by concerns about Fed tightening and rising long-end rates, today concerns about a hawkish Fed have subsided, with European, Asian stocks and S&P futures all rising amid speculation Federal Reserve policy will remain accommodative after yesterday's dovish comments by Fed vice-Chair Stan Fischer, as well as weak economic data helped push the US Dollar off its 7 month highs.