Housing Market

Brexit Blowback - The Panic Will Start With Property

The problem lies mostly with the human tendency to avoid short-term pain...Unless it is accepted that demand must be tied to income growth, and not extra debt, we’re never getting out of this one. The current disconnect between high asset prices, stagnant incomes and increasing, overall debt levels, is both economically and politically unsustainable. And what is the ultimate result? Brexit politically and economically there is no housing market for our young workers.

Bank Of England Unveils First Easing Measures After Brexit

In its first official easing act, the Financial Policy Committee lowered the countercyclical-capital buffer rate for UK exposures to zero from .5% of risk-weighted assets in a move that it said would raise the capacity for bank lending to households and businesses by as much as £150 billion. "This action reinforces the FPC’s view that all elements of the substantial capital and liquidity buffers that have been built up by banks are to be drawn on, as necessary" the committee said in a statement.

Frontrunning: June 30

  • Brexiters at war as Johnson pulls bid to be PM (FT)
  • Soros Says Brexit Has ‘Unleashed’ a Financial-Markets Crisis (BBG)
  • World stocks poised for worst month since January (Reuters)
  • China to tolerate weaker yuan, wary of trade partners' reaction (Reuters)
  • China central bank criticizes media for publishing 'inaccurate information' on yuan rate (Reuters)

Is A New Banking Crisis Imminent? Recent Rise In Delinquency Rates Is Shocking

In 2006 it was exactly twelve months after delinquency rates bottomed that the recession began. If the same period applies, we are due for a recession. In the first quarter of the Great Recession in 2008, delinquency rates were only 1.45%. We are already above that level. The fact that increasing loan delinquency coincides with mountains of debt maturing in 2016 and 2017 is a topic for next time.

George Soros: "Brexit Makes EU Disintegration Irreversible"

"Now the catastrophic scenario that many feared has materialized, making the disintegration of the EU practically irreversible. Britain eventually may or may not be relatively better off than other countries by leaving the EU, but its economy and people stand to suffer significantly in the short to medium term. But the implications for Europe could be far worse."

Funding Is Now Drying Up For Luxury Real Estate Developers In Manhattan

As we have noted on many occasions, the luxury real estate market in Manhattan is now in a downturn. Back in April, we reported that the Bauhouse Group had put a development project into bankruptcy after it wasn't able to find lenders to refinance short-term loans. We then posed the question: "Did The Canary Of New York's Luxury Housing Market Just Die?" The answer - based on builder Extell's need to resort to a program known as EB-5 to help finance its latest condominium tower, known as Central Park Tower - seems to be "Yes!"

Frontrunning: June 21

  • Tiny Tilt in ‘Brexit’ Polls Roils Global Markets (WSJ)
  • Oil prices slip after rally as market turns cautious (Reuters)
  • What to Watch for in Janet Yellen’s Congressional Testimony (WSJ)
  • Cracks emerge in the European consensus on Russia (Reuters)
  • Iraqi forces retake two Falluja districts from Islamic State, push west (Reuters)


Now imagine what might happen next...

Are You Listening, Canada: Australia Slaps Chinese Home Buyers With New Taxes

In a move that we strongly urge Canada (and every other nation which is the end-target of Chinese hot money laundering) to evaluate, Sydney announced it would impose new taxes on foreigners buying homes as concerns grow that a flood of mostly Chinese investors is crowding out locals and killing the “Great Australian Dream” of owning property.

Global Stocks Rebound As Brexit Odds Decline Following Tragic Death Of UK Lawmaker

While it may very well not last and all of yesterday's gains could evaporate instantly if the Brexit vote is set to take place as scheduled, all 10 industry groups in the MSCI All-Country World Index advanced, with the index rising 0.7% trimming the week’s drop 1.6%. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 1.4%. Futures on the S&P 500 were little changed, after equities Thursday snapped their longest losing streak since February. . Oil rose, paring its biggest weekly decline in more than two months. Bond yields around the globe fell.

Housing Bubble 1.0 Vs. Housing Bubble 2.0 - The Culprit Is "Shadow Demand"... Again!

"If 2006 was a known bubble with housing prices at “X”, affordability never better, easy availability of credit, unemployment in the 4%’s, total workforce at record highs, and growing wages, then what do you call today with house prices at X+ 5% to 20%, worse affordability and credit, higher unemployment, weakening total workforce, and shrinking wages? Whatever you call it, it’s a greater thing than “X”."

The Notorious 120% LTV Mortgage Is Back

With China desperate to reflate its once-burst housing bubble (as every other bubble including stocks, bonds, and yes - even rebar - has burst) and with no regulators to oversee the insanity in the local housing market, it means that the infamous 120% LTV mortgage has finally resurfaced. As SCMP reports, Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd., Hong Kong’s largest developer surprised the market on Wednesday by offering an unprecedented home loan worth as much as 120% of the flat value without the need to submit income proof in order to woo buyers for its new project in Yuen Long.