Housing Market

Frontrunning: October 19

  • China third quarter GDP grows 6.7 percent as expected as construction booms, debt rises (Reuters)
  • China Growing at 6.7% Opens Window to Deliver Debt-Curb Vow (BBG)
  • U.S. expects Islamic State to wield chemical weapons in Mosul fight (Reuters)
  • Iraq urges U.S.-led coalition to prevent Islamic State escape to Syria (Reuters)
  • Fox national poll shows Clinton leading by six points (Hill)

US Futures, Global Stocks Mixed After Lackluster Chinese Economic Data; Oil Rises Over $51

US futures were little changed, with European shares lower, and Asian stocks higher as caution returned after last night's Chinese economic data did little to clear up how the world's second largest economy is performing, and provided few positives for investors ahead of the third and final U.S. presidential debate; imminent announcements from both the ECB and the Fed also will keep traders on their toes today.

"The Economy Is Cracking Under Too Much Debt"

".. that was one of the biggest mistakes the central banks made during the financial crisis: They stopped the debt from blowing up. So we never had a cleansing... we are still solving the too-much-debt-problem with too much debt... the Fed is still saying We will make money for free and you just need to borrow more money, and that's its solution to having too much debt. It's insane when you look at it. "

 

Global Stocks Rebound As Fed Fears Ease, Dollar Falls From 7 Month High

If yesterday's session was marked by concerns about Fed tightening and rising long-end rates, today concerns about a hawkish Fed have subsided, with European, Asian stocks and S&P futures all rising amid speculation Federal Reserve policy will remain accommodative after yesterday's dovish comments by Fed vice-Chair Stan Fischer, as well as weak economic data helped push the US Dollar off its 7 month highs.

Key Events In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week include industrial production on Monday, CPI on Tuesday, and housing starts on Wednesday. There are several scheduled speeches from Fed officials this week. The Beige Book for the November FOMC period will be released on Wednesday.

Canaries 'In Extremis'

Nobody “important” will admit it until after the election, but the resumption of the depression is at hand.

Global Stocks Tumble To Three Month Lows As China Fears Return

Remember when two weeks ago the China Beige Book warned that "It’s A Lot More Negative Than People Think" in the world's second biggest economy? Well after months of complacency about the Chinese economy and financial risks emanating from its $35 trillion financial sector, overnight the world got a rude awakening when China export figures tumbled, signalling a deeper slowdown than many anticipated just as the Fed prepares to raise interest rates.

As China Pops Its Housing Bubble, Car Sales Soar 29%

Since this is China, where one zombie asset bubble dies (briefly) only for another bubble to be (re)born, at the same time Beijing was set to pop the local housing bubble, the population turned its attention to cars. In September, Chinese passenger-vehicle sales surged a gargantuan 29% last month, led by small-car makers Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. and Mazda Motor Corp., as consumers seeking to beat an expiring tax cut helped clear inventory on dealer lots.

Frontrunning: October 12

  • UK's May offers lawmakers scrutiny of Brexit process, no Article 50 vote (Reuters)
  • For or Against Trump, GOP Fears Intensifying Civil War If He Loses (BBG)
  • Podesta: 'Reasonable Belief' WikiLeaks Tipped Off Trump Campaign (BBG)
  • Obama says Trump's comments on women disqualifying (Reuters)
  • Samsung slashes third quarter profit estimate by a third after pulling plug on Note 7 (Reuters)

Aussie Property Bubble On A Scale Like No Other

The size of the Australian property bubble is old news. What is less well understood is how such a large and sustained bubble has distorted the Australian political economy. 

Hangzhou, We Have A Problem: "Over 71% Of New Chinese Loans Went To Fund Mortgages"

Last week, the IMF warned that China's growing debt "posed risks to financial stability." Here's why: new loans in August reached 948 billion yuan ($142 billion), more than double the figure a month before, data from the People's Bank of China showed. And the punchline: over 71% of the loans went to households, mainly to fund mortgages.