US futures were little changed, with European shares lower, and Asian stocks higher as caution returned after last night's Chinese economic data did little to clear up how the world's second largest economy is performing, and provided few positives for investors ahead of the third and final U.S. presidential debate; imminent announcements from both the ECB and the Fed also will keep traders on their toes today.
".. that was one of the biggest mistakes the central banks made during the financial crisis: They stopped the debt from blowing up. So we never had a cleansing... we are still solving the too-much-debt-problem with too much debt... the Fed is still saying We will make money for free and you just need to borrow more money, and that's its solution to having too much debt. It's insane when you look at it. "
If yesterday's session was marked by concerns about Fed tightening and rising long-end rates, today concerns about a hawkish Fed have subsided, with European, Asian stocks and S&P futures all rising amid speculation Federal Reserve policy will remain accommodative after yesterday's dovish comments by Fed vice-Chair Stan Fischer, as well as weak economic data helped push the US Dollar off its 7 month highs.
The key economic releases this week include industrial production on Monday, CPI on Tuesday, and housing starts on Wednesday. There are several scheduled speeches from Fed officials this week. The Beige Book for the November FOMC period will be released on Wednesday.
Another property crash would further devastate our banks and have an attendant impact on Irish assets – from property to stocks, bonds, Irish bank deposits and government “guaranteed” savings products.
World stocks started the week in the red Monday as the dollar touched a 7-month high and U.S. and European government bond yields climbed to their highest since June following the Friday speeches by Eric Rosengren and Janet Yellen which hinted the Fed's next step could be to pursue a steepening of the TSY yield curve the same as the BOJ.
While many were wondering if China would unleash QE (which it has been effectively doing for years, using various liquidity conduits), Beijing has quietly launched the biggest fiscal stimulus in history, one that is even bigger than 2009-10, following the global meltdown.
There no longer seems to be a rational alignment between economic cost and value. This means questioning so-called conventional wisdom and critically considering whether or not to invest in stocks, own property, or even to go to college.
Remember when two weeks ago the China Beige Book warned that "It’s A Lot More Negative Than People Think" in the world's second biggest economy? Well after months of complacency about the Chinese economy and financial risks emanating from its $35 trillion financial sector, overnight the world got a rude awakening when China export figures tumbled, signalling a deeper slowdown than many anticipated just as the Fed prepares to raise interest rates.
Since this is China, where one zombie asset bubble dies (briefly) only for another bubble to be (re)born, at the same time Beijing was set to pop the local housing bubble, the population turned its attention to cars. In September, Chinese passenger-vehicle sales surged a gargantuan 29% last month, led by small-car makers Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. and Mazda Motor Corp., as consumers seeking to beat an expiring tax cut helped clear inventory on dealer lots.
Last week, the IMF warned that China's growing debt "posed risks to financial stability." Here's why: new loans in August reached 948 billion yuan ($142 billion), more than double the figure a month before, data from the People's Bank of China showed. And the punchline: over 71% of the loans went to households, mainly to fund mortgages.