Housing Market

Frontrunning: December 7

  • Futures rise for third day in a row (Reuters); Banks Lead Stock Rally as Bonds Gain With Hopes Pinned on Draghi (BBG)
  • Monte dei Paschi bolsters European stocks, ECB looms (Reuters)
  • Finding Risk in All the Wrong Places as Trump Era Begins (BBG)
  • Goldman Tells Stock Pickers to Rejoice as Correlations Decline (BBG)
  • Trump’s ‘Wall’ at Mexico Border Vanishing as GOP Lawmakers Bolt (BBG)

The New American Dream - A Life In Hock

Because the debt lifestyle has been normalized, there now exists social stigma to live below one’s means. To not give the appearance of wealth one doesn’t have by purchasing – on credit – things one can’t really afford. That – as much as the regulatory burden of government – is what’s driving up the cost of life for all of us (including those still trying to live within our means).

JPMorgan Tells Investors: Ignore Mainstream Media

"Geopolitical developments should be gauged from... non-traditional data sources (such as big data sentiment indicators, independent media outlets, etc.) given the failure of many traditional data sources to anticipate geopolitical developments this year."

Frontrunning: November 30

  • Oil soars on OPEC hopes, dollar renews its surge (Reuters)
  • Oil Rallies on OPEC Optimism, Spurring Gains in Energy Producers (BBG)
  • Saudis say to take 'big hit' on oil output for OPEC deal, Iran can freeze (Reuters)
  • Leaner and meaner: U.S. shale greater threat to OPEC after oil price war (Reuters)
  • an the U.S. Become an Energy Superpower in 2017? (BBG)
  • RBS Fails Toughest-Ever BOE Stress Test, Boosts Capital Plan (RBS)

Aussie Housing Market Collapses: Building Approvals Crash 25%

Following September's 9.3% MoM plunge in Aussie home approvals, hopes were high that October would see a bounce (expectations were for a 2% gain) as central bankers jawboned confidence higher. However, it didn't... Building approvals collapsed 12.6% MoM and a shocking 24.9% year-over-year decline is equal to the worst drop since Lehman. Ironically, just this month Aussie Treasurer eased restrictions on foreign buyers (otherwise known as bag holders it would seem).

US Home Prices Rise Above July 2006 Levels, Hit New Record High

Almost exactly ten years after the last housing bubble burst, unleashing a dramatic crash in US real estate prices today Case Shiller reported that as of September, its Index covering all nine U.S. census divisions, surpassed the peak set in July 2006 as the housing boom topped out, and in doing so the average home price has now climbed back above the record reached more than a decade ago.

Trump Offers Ben Carson HUD Secretary Job

Ben Carson, the man who ran for president then said he wouldn't feel comfortable having a role in the Trump administration because he has no government experience, has been formally offered the position of secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Existing Home Sales Surge To Feb 2007 Highs Before Yuuge Spike In Mortgage Rates

October saw exisitng home sales (SAAR) surge to 5.60mm (handily better than the 5.44mm expectation). These are deals essentially done in August and September - weeks before mortgage rates exploded higher - and with median home prices hitting new highs as the cost of funding spikes, it is hard to se how this is sustainable.

'Grey Champion' Assumes Command, Part 2

Seventy year old Donald Trump has assumed the Grey Champion flagstaff. In an increasingly chaotic world, normal working class Americans in flyover country were seeking a leader who could bring order, defeat the corrupt establishment, make tough decisions, and capture the zeitgeist of this moment in history. The ruling elite oligarchs and their fawning minions are infuriated the peasants have dared to resist. In their secretive secure spaces, the elites are plotting with one purpose in mind – this uprising must be quelled.

John Mauldin: This Post-Election Stock Market Rally Won't Last

"Markets have a pronounced tendency to rush to judgment when policy changes occur. When the Obama stimulus of 2009 was announced, the presumption was that it would lead to an inflationary boom. Similarly, the unveiling of QE1 raised expectations of a runaway inflation. Yet, neither happened. The economics are not different now. Under present conditions, it is our judgment that the declining secular trend in Treasury bond yields remains intact."