Housing Market

Much has been made recently of the government's renewed efforts to spark the housing market from its dismal slide, however we fear there are yet more unintended consequences lurking just around the corner. The various ideas being posited for a broad REO-to-rental program is one of these steps as BofA points out in accommodating the dramatic shift from ownership to renting (with 4.2mm new renters and 1.2mm fewer homeowners since the end of 2006). Of course removing foreclosures from the for-sale market reduces competition for voluntary sellers - which should help to support prices for non-distressed homes but here is where the crux of the unintended consequence lies. We have a squatter epidemic. There are millions of 'homeowners' currently living mortgage-payment-free (by choice) who will soon be forced (as the foreclosure process ramps up post-settlement) to pay rent (since they will not qualify for a mortgage). This will have the double whammy effect of reducing overall discretionary consumption spending (as rent is greater than 'free' - unless the cardboard box is preferable) and driving inflationary forces into rental costs (something we are already seeing). Of course these are the much larger second-order effects and we will only be told of the primary benefits of clearing foreclosure inventory, but at the margin (along with gas prices) the household will have less discretionary iPad-buying ammunition as opposed to more.

All you need to read.

• Obama, Cameron discussed tapping oil reserves (Reuters)
• Greek Bonds Signal $2.6 Billion Payout on Credit-Default Swaps (Bloomberg)
• China leader's ouster roils succession plans (Reuters)
• China’s Foreign Direct Investment Falls for Fourth Month (Bloomberg)
• Greek Restructuring Delay Helps Banks as Risks Shift (Bloomberg)
• Concerns Rise Over Eurozone Fiscal Treaty (FT)
• Home default notices rise in February: RealtyTrac (Reuters)
• China PBOC Drains Net CNY57 Bln (WSJ)

All you need to read.

Going into the US open, European equity markets have carried across some risk appetite from last night’s Wall Street news that 15 out of 19 major US banks had passed the Fed’s stress test scenarios. This risk appetite is evident in Europe today with financials outperforming all other sectors, currently up over 2%. Data released so far today has been relatively uneventful, with Eurozone CPI coming in alongside expectations and Industrial Production just below the expected reading for January. Taking a look at the energy complex, WTI and Brent crude futures are seen on a slight downwards trajectory so far in session following some overnight comments from China, highlighting the imbalance in the Chinese property market, dampening future demand for oil. Looking ahead in the session, the DOE crude oil inventories will shed further light on the current standing of US energy inventories.

"Rationalising away the imminent risk of inflation, the Fed leaves the door wide open for a QE3 announcement in April."

China is trying to tell you something, are you listening?

There was a time when Bank of America's archoptimist David Bianco would take any economic data point, no matter how fecal mattery, and convert it into 24-carat gold. Then, in late 2011 Bianco was fired because the bank realized that its only chance to persevere was if the Fed proceeded with another round of QE, (and another, and another, ad inf) and as such economic reporting would have to lose its upward bias and be reporting in its natural ugly habitat. And while many other banks have in recent days become content with every other central bank in the world easing but not the Fed in an election year due to the risks of record gas prices, BAC's push for QE has not abated and in fact has gotten louder and louder. So exposes us to some oddities. Such as the firm's 29 year old senior economist Michelle Meyer literally demolishing any myth that yesterday's job number was "good." Needless to say, this will not come as a surprise to Zero Hedge readers. Nor to TrimTabs, whose opinion on the BLS BS we have attached as exhibit B as to the sheer economic data propaganda happening in an election year. Yet it is quite shocking that such former stalwarts of the bullish doctrine are now finally exposing the truth for what it is. Presenting Bank of America as we have never seen it before - throwing up all over the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

All you need to read.

Consumer spending in the Netherlands has been weaker than other countries in the eurozone for the past ten year and is currently also lower than during the severe economic crisis of the early 80s according the Dutch Central Bank (DNB). They continue that the low spending is an important factor in the recession the Netherlands is now in. Dutch spending patterns have deviated from other European countries which is noteworthy since the Netherlands had one of the highest rates of eurozone countries between 1992 and 2001.

Could housing prices be stabilizing?

All you need to read.

Wonder how Americans can afford to buy millions of iGadgets, a second LCD TV for the shoe closet, and eat at restaurants more than almost any time in the past despite sliding personal income? Simple - increasingly fewer pay the biggest staple bill in a US household: their mortgage. The following story of Keith And Janet Ritter, who have lived in their Fort Washington, MD $1.29MM, 4,900 square foot McMansion for 5 years (which they purchase with no money down) without ever making a single mortgage payment, and who are not even close to being evicted, may explain much about the way US society currently operates, and why other perfectly responsible and hard-working taxpayers (who do have to pay for their mortgage) continue to fund tens of billions in Fannie and Freddie losses who are first on the hook to absorb the implicit losses by allowing families such as the Ritters to live in perpetuity without paying, and the banks to keep said mortgage on the books at par without any impairments.

Less risk, maybe, but that's a long way from a sustained recovery.