Housing Market

Two things of note in today's Rosie piece. On one hand he breaks out the 10 good and bad things that investors are factoring, and while focusing on the positive, and completely ignoring the negative, are pushing the market to its best start since 1997. As Rosie says: "The equity market has gotten off to its best start in a good 15 years and being led by the deep cyclicals (materials, homebuilders, semiconductors) and financials — last year's woeful laggards (the 50 worst performing stocks in 2011 are up over 10% so far this year; the 50 best are up a mere 2%). Bonds are off to their worst start since 2003 with the 10-year note yield back up to 2%. The S&P 500 is now up 20% from the early October low and just 3.5% away from the April 2011 recovery high (in fact, in euro terms, it has rallied 30% and at its best level since 2007)." Is there anything more to this than precisely the same short-covering spree we saw both in 2010 and 2011? Not really: "This still smacks of a classic short-covering rally as opposed to a broad asset- allocation shift, but there is no doubt that there is plenty of cash on the sidelines and if it gets put to use, this rally could be extended. This by no means suggests a shift in my fundamental views, and keep in mind that we went into 2011 with a similar level of euphoria and hope in place and the uptrend lasted through April before the trap door opened. Remember too that the acute problems in the housing and mortgage market began in early 2007 and yet the equity market did not really appreciate or understand the severity of the situation until we were into October of that year and even then the consensus was one of a 'soft landing'." Finally, Rosie steps back from the noise and focuses on the forest, asking the rhetorical question: "Isn't this still a "modern day depression?" - his answer, and ours - "sure it is."

As of a few hours ago, Goldman's Francesco Garzarelli has officially told the firm's clients to go ahead and short 10 Year Treasurys via March 2012 futures, with a 126-00 target. While Garzarelli is hardly Stolper (and we will have more on the latest Stolpering out in a second), the fact that Goldman is now openly buying Treasurys two days ahead of this week's FOMC statement makes us wonder just how much of a rates positive statement will the Fed make on Wednesday at 2:15 pm. From Goldman: "Since the end of last August, we have argued that 10-yr US Treasury yields would not be able to sustain levels much below 2% in this cycle. Yields have traded in a tight range around an average 2% since September, including so far into 2012. We are now of the view that a break to the upside, to 2.25-2.50%, is likely and recommend going tactically short. Using Mar-12 futures contracts, which closed on Friday at 130-08, we would aim for a target of 126-00 and stops on a close above 132-00." As a reminder, don't do what Goldman says, do what it does, especially when one looks the firm's Top 6 trades for 2012, of which 5 are losing money, and 2 have been stopped out less than a month into the year.

The Fed spent $600 billion on QE 2 and had at most three months’ of improved economic data as a result (QE 2 was announced in November and the US economy rolled over in February 2011). The public is well aware of this as well as the fact that QE 2 saw inflation exploding higher.

All you neewd to read.

Here are today's economic highlights, for anyone who cares and is deluded to think that any economic numbers actually still matter and drive the market and not vice versa.

The last time intermodal traffic dipped to this level, we were in denial about a Recession and the Dow continued to march from 11,500 in January of 2008 all the way to just above 13,000 in May.

Five years on, the powers that be have just released the transcripts of the Fed's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meetings from 2006.  Putting hindsight economic analysis aside, you quickly realize more than anything else: the committee is full of burgeoning comedians! Commentators have already highlighted the "humor" of the FOMC meetings, but it is really over the top at times.  There are periods where Greenspan seems only capable of speaking in witty quips. That's right, the FOMC was laughing all the way to the top!

The only reason that today's report was "disappointing" is that economists can't forecast accurately.

All you need to read.

Analyst surveys have now risen to the level of fact, as we all know.  Thus Bloomberg and other news outlets feature detailed reports about the opinions of the Sell Side community as though these musings were burned into stone tablets with the fire of the Holy Spirit.

Are the markets already front running a potential announcement of a third round of Quantitative Easing (QE 3)?   Maybe so.  We had expected QE3 at the end of last summer as the economy weakened substantially from the impact of the Japanese earthquake/debt ceiling debate/Eurozone crisis trifecta.  However, with political pressures running high due to the raging battle in Congress raising the debt ceiling there was little support from the public for further intervention.  Furthermore, with inflation, as measured by CPI, already outside of the Fed's comfort zone, the Fed opted to institute "Operation Twist" (O.T.) instead. With the Euro-Crisis on the broiler, another debt ceiling debate approaching, the U.S. economy struggling along as Europe slips into a recession and corporate earnings being revised down there are plenty of reasons for stocks to decline in price.  Yet, they have continued to inch up.  With short interest on stocks having plunged in recent weeks it certainly sounds like the markets are betting on something happening and soon.

All you need to read.

Our comprehensive monthly chart porn packet comes courtesy of our favorite chartist: The Punchline's Abe Gulkowitz who has just released the January edition: "Jump Ball 2012 Will it all Fall Into Place in 2012?" - the narrative is brief (by definition) by as always cuts right to the chase. "It’s a new year and US economic activity is looking better. But magic is still needed to resolve the numerous challenges ahead. The best scenario is that the cyclical upturn gains momentum here in the U.S. and the rest of the world falls into place. Many are right to expect fourth?quarter GDP growth in the U.S. to have been a 3.5% growth pace, but still expect the spillover from Europe and policy uncertainty to cause GDP growth to decelerate over 2012. We have attempted to flush out some issues that are inadequately covered in the press… First, despite impressive improvement in the U.S. business scene, the recovery remains awkwardly distorted. The continuing deep slump in the housing market is partly to blame. The construction sector added only 47,000 jobs in 2011. More than 2 million construction jobs have evaporated since 2007, and the sector’s job count is back to its level in 1996, when the population and the economy were smaller. Second, the role of government spending has become so extended that it might take years to correct. Third, market liquidity measures have been drying up as big banks and financial institutions play defense. This is both a function of new regulatory underpinnings and the morass in Europe. While the focus of politicians and market players has been to remedy the short term necessities in the fiscal and debt crisis, the long?term challenge for Europe is to find ways of reducing its divisive divergence in economic performance and boosting overall rates of growth. If these issues are not addressed and resolved, the continent will remain locked in an asymmetric pattern of trade and stagnant living standards for both rich and poor countries. Such broader issues will require imagination and structural changes to the current framework, and faster growth worldwide than is currently on the drawing board…" Must read for even the most time-pressed and ADHD afflicted flow desk traders.

Remember when the hiring of former Wall Street insider and JP Morgan career man, Bill Daley, by the Obama administration as its latest Chief of Staff was big news last January? Well so much for that. The LA Times reports that the detente between Obama and Wall Street has reached new levels, with Daley's resignation expected to be announced at 3 pm by the president and is to be replaced by Citi's Jacob Lew, who in turn was the guy who oversaw the bank unit that "shorted the housing market." Well, at least Obama now knows to keep away from the JPM crew, whose Jamie Dimon is not all that happy with the president, if he wishes to avoid looking like not only the Wall Street's patsy, but also the guy who fails at sloppy seconds.

All you need to know.