Housing Prices

The Norwegian Economy In 2017: Black Swans Hovering Overhead

Norwegians are just now starting to grapple with the effects of their “single cylinder” economy, mostly dependent on oil and gas (ca. 60% of exports). Despite optimism about $50-$70/barrel oil, American crude output is surging, on track to be the highest ever, since 1970, while cracks start to form in OPEC’s latest agreement. In addition to the oil tailspin, a flock of “black swans” have taken flight, led by one with a very orange beak.

China Housing Bubble Finally Pops: First Slowdown After 19 Months Of Acceleration

Today we got the first confirmation that the latest Chinese housing bubble has finally popped, as housing prices across the 70 cities were up 12.7% Y/Y, below the 12.9% annual growth rate in November. This was the first moderation in year-over-year housing price growth after 19 months of continued acceleration.

Do Central Bankers Know A Bubble When They See One?

In spite of being exposed in what is either a self-exculpating lie (the claim that bubbles can only be seen after they burst) or a sign of gross incompetence (the failure to see two of the largest financial bubbles in history), no Fed official has ever been asked to explain or rationalize the Fed’s contradictory positions on bubbles.

Chinese Home Prices Surge Most On Record, Ignore "Cooling" Measures

Average new-home prices in the 70 cities tracked surged by 1.8% in September from the month prior. On an annual basis, housing prices soared 11.2% year over year, after a 9.2% jump in August. This was the biggest annual jump on record, and the 12th consecutive month in year-over-year gains.

Trump's Right - Morgan Stanley Warns "Big, Fat, Ugly Bubble" Is "An Illusion" Driven By The Fed

"In a looping debate rant, Mr. Trump argued that an increasingly “political” Fed is holding interest rates low to help Democrats in November, driving up a “big, fat, ugly bubble” that will pop when the central bank raises rates. This riff has some truth to it... The stock market should be a barometer of the economy, but in practice it has become a barometer of Fed policy."