Housing Prices

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Futures Down After Shanghai Composite Plunges On Slowdown In Housing Prices, Foreign Trade; BoJ Policy





The Chinese Shanghai index was lower by almost 3% overnight after a series of disappointing economic releases out of the country. The first showed a further cooling in property prices, leaving many to speculate if the housing ponzi was not beginning to unravel/ As Xinhua reports: "Housing prices in major Chinese cities rose 10.3 percent year on year in July, down from the 11.4 percent growth in June, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Tuesday. It was the third consecutive month that China's property prices rose at a slower pace and the lowest growth rate in six months." Adding to the downward pressure was news released from the Customs Administration (which we will spread later), which indicated that "China's exports rose 38.1 percent year on year to 145.52 billion U.S. dollars in July, but the growth rate was down from the 43.9-percent surge in June, the General Administration of Customs (GAC) said Tuesday." Concluding the Asian trifecta of negative news, was the Bank of Japan's refusal to further ease its monetary policy. US futures are lower by about 0.5% although all the action in the US will be focused on the FOMC statement released early this afternoon.

 
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Guest Post: How Increasing Inflation Could Affect Housing Prices - Correlating Mortgage Rates And Housing Prices





I was talking with a friend who was telling me that it was the absolute perfect time to buy a house because housing prices have tumbled and interest rates are low. I asked him, "What happens to housing prices if there is inflation and rates go up?" "Housing prices should go up with inflation as they do for all goods. Housing is a natural hedge for inflation" Did my friend have a point? Yes and no. Yes, he was right that in a high inflationary environment, housing prices should rise with all other assets. Rents will go up, as will the price of all the inputs into housing such as lumber and labor costs. Obviously, housing prices will go up to reflect this reality. But no, when inflation and thus nominal interest rates increase, housing prices tumble. When rates fall, housing prices tend to increase.

 
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Moody's To Hike RMBS Loss Severity Assumptions, Extends Expected Trough For Housing Prices





"Moody's now expects that a trough in home prices will not be reached until the middle of 2010. In addition, based on recent loan loss severities, Moody's will increase its projected lifetime loan losses for pools backing U.S. Jumbo, Alt-A, Option ARM, and Subprime RMBS issued between 2005 and 2008." - Moody's Investors Services

 
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Deutsche Bank Projecting A 40% Decline In NY Housing Prices





After the good folks in the Deutsche Bank securitization group anticipated a 47% drop in NY housing prices in March, they have released an updated report discussing the future pain in the top 10 MSA, and the biggest outlier by a big margin, once again, is the New York-White Plains-Wayne NY-NJ MSAD.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Deutsche Bank Projecting A 40% Decline In NY Housing Prices





After the good folks in the Deutsche Bank securitization group anticipated a 47% drop in NY housing prices in March, they have released an updated report discussing the future pain in the top 10 MSA, and the biggest outlier by a big margin, once again, is the New York-White Plains-Wayne NY-NJ MSAD.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Deutsche Bank Projecting A 40% Decline In NY Housing Prices





After the good folks in the Deutsche Bank securitization group anticipated a 47% drop in NY housing prices in March, they have released an updated report discussing the future pain in the top 10 MSA, and the biggest outlier by a big margin, once again, is the New York-White Plains-Wayne NY-NJ MSAD.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

On "Rock Bottom" Housing Prices





For all who claim that rampant inflation is up next, and home price deflation is over, I present the following charts for readers to ruminate on just how much higher existing home sales inventories are relative to some semblance of a trendline, in addition to a long-term chart comparing CPI with the median home price.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

On "Rock Bottom" Housing Prices





For all who claim that rampant inflation is up next, and home price deflation is over, I present the following charts for readers to ruminate on just how much higher existing home sales inventories are relative to some semblance of a trendline, in addition to a long-term chart comparing CPI with the median home price.

 
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