Housing Prices

Tyler Durden's picture

Renting: The New Buying; A Primer On Housing 2.0





Wondering why the future for housing as an asset is so bleak, why median housing prices continue to tumble and recently saw their biggest three month drop ever, and why there is no bottom in sight? Simple: the American public appears to have woken up to the reality that homes are no longer a flippable asset, and in fact continue to drop in price, an observation that is obvious to virtually all now. So what happens next? Why renting of course. Here is Morgan Stanley explaining (granted in a pitchbook for REITs but the underlying data is quite useful) why the Housing 2.0 paradigm is all about renting.

 
Reggie Middleton's picture

As Clearly Forecasted On BoomBustBlog, Housing Prices Commence Their Downward Price Movement In Search Of Equilibrium Scraping Depression Levels





There never was a housing recovery, just a reflex reaction from .gov bubble blowing. Now that that's over, we return to our regularly scheduled housing crash...

 
Reggie Middleton's picture

The Truth Goes Viral, Pt 1: Housing Prices, Economic Sales and the State of Depression, Live on Bloomberg TV!





Watch out! The Truth is GOING VIRAL! Reggie Middleton discusses residential real estate, Case Shiller and over exuberance on Bloomberg TV.

 
Reggie Middleton's picture

Those Who Blindly Follow Housing Prices Without Taking Other Metrics Into Consideration Are Missing the Housing Depression of the New Millennium.





Things are much worse than the Case Shiller index, and the media that quotes it ad nauseum, are leading many to believe...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: Correlation Of Mortgage Rates With Real Housing Prices II





My last post "Correlation of mortgage rates with real housing prices: how increasing inflation could affect housing prices", raised some questions. I didn't have the chance to respond to them. But before I do, let me go back to the original purpose of the article. I asked the question, "What could happen to real estate in the event of higher inflation?" If inflation shot up from 1% to 7%, what would happen to the real value of your home. My thesis was: you're screwed. You will lose what little equity you have and real housing prices could drop by as high as 50%. - Taylor Cottam

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Futures Down After Shanghai Composite Plunges On Slowdown In Housing Prices, Foreign Trade; BoJ Policy





The Chinese Shanghai index was lower by almost 3% overnight after a series of disappointing economic releases out of the country. The first showed a further cooling in property prices, leaving many to speculate if the housing ponzi was not beginning to unravel/ As Xinhua reports: "Housing prices in major Chinese cities rose 10.3 percent year on year in July, down from the 11.4 percent growth in June, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Tuesday. It was the third consecutive month that China's property prices rose at a slower pace and the lowest growth rate in six months." Adding to the downward pressure was news released from the Customs Administration (which we will spread later), which indicated that "China's exports rose 38.1 percent year on year to 145.52 billion U.S. dollars in July, but the growth rate was down from the 43.9-percent surge in June, the General Administration of Customs (GAC) said Tuesday." Concluding the Asian trifecta of negative news, was the Bank of Japan's refusal to further ease its monetary policy. US futures are lower by about 0.5% although all the action in the US will be focused on the FOMC statement released early this afternoon.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: How Increasing Inflation Could Affect Housing Prices - Correlating Mortgage Rates And Housing Prices





I was talking with a friend who was telling me that it was the absolute perfect time to buy a house because housing prices have tumbled and interest rates are low. I asked him, "What happens to housing prices if there is inflation and rates go up?" "Housing prices should go up with inflation as they do for all goods. Housing is a natural hedge for inflation" Did my friend have a point? Yes and no. Yes, he was right that in a high inflationary environment, housing prices should rise with all other assets. Rents will go up, as will the price of all the inputs into housing such as lumber and labor costs. Obviously, housing prices will go up to reflect this reality. But no, when inflation and thus nominal interest rates increase, housing prices tumble. When rates fall, housing prices tend to increase.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Moody's To Hike RMBS Loss Severity Assumptions, Extends Expected Trough For Housing Prices





"Moody's now expects that a trough in home prices will not be reached until the middle of 2010. In addition, based on recent loan loss severities, Moody's will increase its projected lifetime loan losses for pools backing U.S. Jumbo, Alt-A, Option ARM, and Subprime RMBS issued between 2005 and 2008." - Moody's Investors Services

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Deutsche Bank Projecting A 40% Decline In NY Housing Prices





After the good folks in the Deutsche Bank securitization group anticipated a 47% drop in NY housing prices in March, they have released an updated report discussing the future pain in the top 10 MSA, and the biggest outlier by a big margin, once again, is the New York-White Plains-Wayne NY-NJ MSAD.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Deutsche Bank Projecting A 40% Decline In NY Housing Prices





After the good folks in the Deutsche Bank securitization group anticipated a 47% drop in NY housing prices in March, they have released an updated report discussing the future pain in the top 10 MSA, and the biggest outlier by a big margin, once again, is the New York-White Plains-Wayne NY-NJ MSAD.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Deutsche Bank Projecting A 40% Decline In NY Housing Prices





After the good folks in the Deutsche Bank securitization group anticipated a 47% drop in NY housing prices in March, they have released an updated report discussing the future pain in the top 10 MSA, and the biggest outlier by a big margin, once again, is the New York-White Plains-Wayne NY-NJ MSAD.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

On "Rock Bottom" Housing Prices





For all who claim that rampant inflation is up next, and home price deflation is over, I present the following charts for readers to ruminate on just how much higher existing home sales inventories are relative to some semblance of a trendline, in addition to a long-term chart comparing CPI with the median home price.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

On "Rock Bottom" Housing Prices





For all who claim that rampant inflation is up next, and home price deflation is over, I present the following charts for readers to ruminate on just how much higher existing home sales inventories are relative to some semblance of a trendline, in addition to a long-term chart comparing CPI with the median home price.

 
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