There are many factors which affect rental prices, including: (1) the general health of the economy; (2) demographics; (3) housing strength; (4) population growth; (5) migration patterns; and (6) wealth distribution.
These are the news items from the Easter weekend that those who're asleep at the wheel probably missed. Yes, of course they're important and deserving of your attention, that's why they were buried into the Easter weekend!
No need to fret, I condensed them and supplied supplementary analysis to show my love:-)
Today Rosenberg releases yet another piece that scratches the veneer off the government "data" and finds that the less presentable truth is always beyond just skin deep.
Federal Housing Administration Head: "We Are At The Point Right Now Where No One Trusts the American Housing Finance System"Submitted by George Washington on 03/23/2010 23:29 -0500
But NO ...
I've been telling readers and subscribers that the housing market has a considerable amount to fall before we reach income parity and equilibrium in supply and demand. With income currently falling along with rising underwriting standards, that point is actually being pushed even farther into the (event) horizon! We are now at a point where interested parties would be remiss in not pursuing blogs (both in addition to and instead of the mainstream media) to get the nitty gritty analysis on a wide variety of topics. With that being said, I have finally decided to bite the bullet and expand BoomBustBlog by accepting partners in a bid to grow the business. Lethargic media and financial concerns, look out, here comes the BLOGS!!!
This paper explores the subject of a possible housing bubble in Canada. It examines a diverse array of factors that may have contributed to the rise in house prices in Canada. The paper evaluates each factor individually and determines the health of the Canadian housing market using common valuation techniques. Results suggest that economic fundamentals in Canada provide little explanation for the Canadian house price dynamics. Market fundamentals have become insignificant in affecting house prices, and the price-momentum conditions characteristic of a bubble now exist. The extreme decoupling of the market prices from the underlying fundamentals suggests an upcoming correction in housing prices in Canada.
We think that China is an indestructible economic juggernaut but its economy is very fragile and it is sitting on a property bubble which will burst. What China does in response has major implications for their economy and the rest of the world. This is the second part of a three-part series on this topic.
We think that China is an indestructible economic juggernaut but its economy is very fragile and it is sitting on a property bubble which will burst. What China does in response has major implications for their economy and the rest of the world. This is the first part of a three-part series on this topic.
In contrast to the cheery mood of the markets, the latest readings from consumers and small business owners indicate economic sentiment isn’t improving. This divergence has got the Wall Street scratching its collective head. In short, the disparity may be deciphered in one word – liquidity - which Wall Street has plenty of, while main street remains strapped.
Are you having a good crisis?
Two years ago when I warned that Munis were getting primed for default in quite a few states (analysis linked below), my admonitions were pooh-poohed. Muni's practically never default, said the ivory tower (muni salesmen) professionals. Don't look now, but bankruptcy warnings are now standard fare in the Detroit prospectus, that doesn't even come with a set of financial statements attached. They are probably paying more than Greece,,, with more to come.
A detailed overview of the current state of charge-offs, delinquencies and (yes) improvements in the mortgage industry - and most importantly what can be discerned from these trends...
A lot of conflicting data came in last week. There is a lot of positive news, but does it all add up to a recovery or is the cyclical recovery headed for a stall? Nothing has changed the underlying conditions that would relieve the credit freeze. And without credit, the economy will stall.
Two months ago I pointed out an anomaly in JP Morgan's "blowout" quarterly earnings release. Bloomberg's recent story informs us of how big the problem actually is. Let's reminisce...
The year 2009 was the year of reflation theories and bubble blowing. Theses of "Green Shoots", catching the bottom, and QE reigning supreme were the order of the day. Sure enough, asset prices (nearly all of them) went one direction, straight up. We all saw it coming, but guys like me who actually count the money and rely on the fundamentals didn't believe it was a sustainable gain. It wasn't a bull market, but a bear market rally. After nearly one year, the reflationists have had their hay day, or have they?