Housing Prices

Time To Take The Fed's Warning Seriously: CMBS Has "Greatest Ever Monthly Delinquency Increase"

15 loans totaling $221MM became newly delinquent in June. In total, 71 loans with a balance of $760.6MM were delinquent in June, resulting in a delinquency rate of 32bp. The $142MM month-over-month increase in the volume of delinquent loans was the greatest ever - it eclipses the $116MM increase in March 2016 and compares to an average monthly increase of $40.7MM.

The Crackdown Begins: Chinese Bank Sues To Seize Vancouver Real Estate Assets

China CITIC Bank Corp Ltd has launched a Canadian lawsuit to try to seize the assets of a Chinese citizen the bank claims took out a multimillion-dollar loan in China then fled to Canada. The defendant, Shibiao Yan, owns three multimillion-dollar properties in a Vancouver suburb and lives in a $3-million Vancouver home owned by his wife, according to court documents.

Wake-Up Call America: Iceland's New President Has Never Been A Politician

Meet Icelandic president elect Guoni Johannesson - a scholastic expert on political history, diplomacy and the Iceland constitution - who has never been a member of a political party, is a husband and father, and reportedly chose to run for president after the release of the Panama Papers.

The End Game Of Bubble Finance - Political Revolt

During Friday’s bloodbath we heard a CNBC anchor lady assuring her (scant) remaining audience that Brexit wasn’t a big sweat. That’s because it is purportedly a political crisis, not a financial one. Here’s a news flash. That’s all about to change. The era of Bubble Finance was enabled by a political abdication nearly 50 years ago. But as Donald Trump rightly observed in the wake of Brexit, the voters are about to take back their governments, meaning that the financial elites of the world are in for a rude awakening.

"Please Don't Pop My Bubble!"

So ride your bubble of choice up--stocks, bonds, housing, bat guano, take your pick--but it's best to keep your thumb on the sell button and your mind attuned to the many needles and nails pressing aginst the thin membrane of the bubble.

Are You Listening, Canada: Australia Slaps Chinese Home Buyers With New Taxes

In a move that we strongly urge Canada (and every other nation which is the end-target of Chinese hot money laundering) to evaluate, Sydney announced it would impose new taxes on foreigners buying homes as concerns grow that a flood of mostly Chinese investors is crowding out locals and killing the “Great Australian Dream” of owning property.

Housing Bubble 1.0 Vs. Housing Bubble 2.0 - The Culprit Is "Shadow Demand"... Again!

"If 2006 was a known bubble with housing prices at “X”, affordability never better, easy availability of credit, unemployment in the 4%’s, total workforce at record highs, and growing wages, then what do you call today with house prices at X+ 5% to 20%, worse affordability and credit, higher unemployment, weakening total workforce, and shrinking wages? Whatever you call it, it’s a greater thing than “X”."

Bank Of Canada Warns Of "Higher Possilbity" Of Housing Downturn, Sees Vancouver, Toronto Prices Unsustainable

Just a few days after the OECD warned of the risk of a "disorderly housing market correction" in Canada, moments ago the Bank of Canada also chimed in and warned that the "potential" for home price downturn in some areas has increased, and that Vancouver, Toronto home price gains likely unsustainable.  Which is curious because the vast majority of price gains in Toronto and Vancouver have been driven by the outflow of the trillion in Chinese inert deposits, which promptly find their way into Canadian real estate (and lately bitcoin). In other words, is the BOC assuming that China will crash soon?

Vancouver Homeowners Made More From Sitting On Their Assets Than The Entire City Did By Working

The most stunning statistic to come out of China's offshore money-laundering mecca located in Vancouver, where over the past two years Chinese buyers have created the biggest developed world housing bubble in recent history as a result of unprecedented capital flight from China's financial system, is that just by sitting on their assets local homeowners "made" more in 2015 than the entire city population earned by actually going to work.

China Is The Biggest Short...Ever

As simply put as possible... over the next 2 decades, there will be an average of 7.5 million fewer 0-55yr/old Chinese every year vs. an average annual increase of 9.5 million 55+yr/olds. And the wealthy minority of the elderly have stashed their reserves in a whole lot of expensive, vacant real estate that they intend to pass along (rent or sell) to the declining young population.  What could go wrong since housing prices only go up...right!?!

Frontrunning: June 2

  • Global stocks struggle as ECB and OPEC meetings loom (Reuters)
  • Iran Resists Saudi Gesture for Unity as OPEC Fractures Reappear (BBG)
  • Clinton to blast Trump on North Korea, NATO in foreign policy speech (Reuters)
  • Hillary Clinton Shifts to California as Race Tightens There (WSJ)
  • Puerto Rico’s U.S. Rescue Won’t Come Soon Enough to Halt Default (BBG)