Hungary

Dollar Winning Streak Continues For Fourth Day Pushing Oil Lower; Futures Flat

Following two days of rangebound moves, where Monday's modest market rebound was undone by the Tuesday just as modest decline (despite the early surge higher on the latest "bullish for stocks" European terrorism), overnight equity action continued to be more of the same, and as of this moment S&P 500 futures were unchanged, while European stocks were modestly higher. But while equities remain surprisingly uneventful despite loud warnings by both JPM and Goldman now that another bout of volatility and equity downside is coming, in FX there has been a substantial change, one which has seen the US dollar rise for a fourth day, the longest winning streak in a month, driven by the latest round of hawkish Fed jawboning courtesy of the Chicago Fed's Charlie Evens yesterday, which in turn has pushed down prices of oil, gold and copper.

Why Trump Triumphs

"Now, the zeitgeist has changed. Ms. Merkel is out of style and out of step. In Britain, France, the Netherlands, Slovakia, Hungary, and the U.S., the candidates getting the most enthusiastic support are those who urge closing borders, restricting trade, and looking to protect themselves from all that is threatening, different, or new. Forget free trade! Forget freedom of travel! Stop immigration… especially of the Muslims and Mexicans! Build a wall! Torture your enemies! Stop trying to expand the empire!"

EU, Turkey Strike Migrant Deal; Erdogan Gets €6 Billion

The migrant crisis is over and Europe is fixed. Turkish PM Ahmet Davutoglu was in Brussels on Friday in an effort to hammer out a deal with EU officials that will help stem the flow of asylum seekers into Western Europe. As it turns out, eurocrats aren't very good at negotiating with an autocrat's messenger, which is why Europe came away with a set of promises that are impossible to enforce and Erdogan got €6 billion plus accelerated EU membership.

Where Have We Seen This Before: Hungary Central Bank Will Prop Up Economy By Boosting Stock Market

Today the Budapest stock exchange, now majority-owned by the central bank - just a few conflict of interest there - approved a new strategy on Wednesday to boost new listings and attract new investors, helping the government's efforts to buoy the economy. The bourse will aim for five share or corporate bond listings per year and boost stock market capitalisation to about 30 percent of gross domestic product from less than 20 percent today.

"The European Project Was Always Bound To Fail" - Europe Without The Union

Any project attempting to fuse these disparate cultures into one monolithic state over the course of just 70 years was by its very nature doomed. It would inevitably encounter insurmountable levels of nationalistic resistance, and eventually the project would stall. That is the point at which we now find ourselves.

"Idiot, Clown, Or Hero?": Europe Ponders The Donald

There are some in Europe who are repulsed by Donald Trump - who see the billionaire as the very antithesis of everything the bloc stands for. Then again, in the context of Western Europe's worsening migrant crisis and everything that's come with it, some increasingly see a veritable "hero." 

A Coherent Explanation of Obama's Foreign Policy

Obama has been carrying out a bipartisan Republican-and-Democratic foreign policy; it’s the policy of America’s aristocracy. Its results have been horrible for the world, but they’ll be even worse if it succeeds.

Frontrunning: February 18

  • Oil extends rally towards $35 after Iran welcomes output freeze (Reuters)
  • Overproduction Swamps Smaller Chinese Cities, Revealing Depth of Crisis (WSJ)
  • House Flipping Is Making a Comeback in Las Vegas (BBG)
  • Trump leads Republican field nationally by more than 20 points (Reuters)
  • Turkey blames Kurdish militants for Ankara bomb, vows response in Syria and Iraq (Reuters)

Here's Why (And How) The Government Will "Borrow" Your Retirement Savings

The bottom line is that government needs more money. Lots of it. And there is perhaps no easier pool of cash to "borrow" than Americans’ retirement savings. $7.3 trillion in US IRA accounts is too large for them to ignore. And if you think it’s inconceivable for the government to borrow your retirement savings, just consider the following...

Neil Howe Warns The 'Professional Class' Is Still In Denial Of The Fourth Turning

"The world has fundamentally shifted over the last decade, especially since we’ve emerged from the Great Recession... But the professional class has been very slow to understand what is going on, not just quantitatively but qualitatively in a new generational configuration that I call the Fourth Turning. They don’t accept the new normal. They keep insisting, just two or three years out there on the horizon, that the old normal will return – in GDP growth, in housing starts, in global trade. But it doesn’t return."