Hyman Minsky

Minsky, Myopia, & Why The S&P 500 Is A Bloated Corpse

"Natural bodies can tend towards equilibrium, i.e. death. Markets cannot. They’re doomed to flatline, and then to always come back from near death experiences. They tend to do so in violent ways though. When volatility at last returns, so will price discovery. It won’t be pretty."

America's 'Fake' Stability & Boobs On Credit

"The longer this fake stability is maintained the greater the collapse. Success breeds disregard for the possibility of catastrophe...Sometimes they do ring a bell at the top. In this case they are shaking fake boobs at the top."

China's Minsky Moment Is Imminent

Everything you wanted to know about the looming bursting of the world's biggest credit bubble, but were afraid to ask...

"Why Does Extraordinarily Low Volatility Matter" Baupost Explains...

"...we remain in a market that is broadly expensive and largely indifferent to risk... This continues to be a time for patience and, above all, caution. If there is anything to be taken from Hyman Minksy's words, it is that no one should be lulled into a false sense of comfort by the illusion of stability which surrounds us... We most assurdely, are not..."

The Math Of Bitcoin And Why One Analyst Says It's Not Yet In A Bubble

"I have read many articles lately claiming that Bitcoin is in a bubble similar to the famous Great Tulip bubble of 1637... but that comparison is only for those who do not understand the significance of what is happening currently with blockchain technology... The bubble is the dollar... And thus there is no store of value to be found. This is a terribly ugly situation for people who believe in hard work and saving to get ahead"

Canada, Let's Not Minsky Words

"Breeding animal spirits too long creates systemic problems...and for Canadian real estate, the truth is Minsky instability could’ve been argued years ago - But central banks have created unstable market monsters that they neither can afford to feed nor fight."

China Created A Record Half A Trillion Dollars Of Debt In January

Yes, you read that right. Amid a tumbling stock market, plunging trade data, weakening Yuan, and soaring volatility, China's aggregate debt (so-called total social financing) rose a stunning CNY3.42 trillion (or an even more insane-sounding $520 billion) in January alone.

Bill Gross Trolls "Addled, Impotent" Central Bankers, Asks "How's It Workin' For Ya?"

"Why after several decades of 0% rates has the Japanese economy failed to respond? Why has the U.S. only averaged 2% real growth since the end of the Great Recession? “How’s it workin’ for ya?” – would be a curt, logical summary of the impotency of low interest rates to generate acceptable economic growth worldwide. "

How QE Crushes The Real Economy & Why The Secular Low In Treasury Yields Lies Ahead

The economy was supposed to fire on all cylinders in 2015. Sufficient time had passed for the often-mentioned lags in monetary and fiscal policy to finally work their way through the system according to many pundits inside and outside the Fed. Surely the economy would be kick-started by: three rounds of QE and forward guidance; a record Fed balance sheet; and an unprecedented increase in federal debt to $18.63 trillion in 2015, a jump of 86%. Further, stock prices had gained sufficiently over the past several years, thus the so-called wealth effect would boost consumer spending. But the economic facts of 2015 displayed no impact from these massive government experiments.

A Storm Of Bad "Incoming Data" Strikes As The World Economy Rolls Over

Brutal news is pouring in from pretty much everywhere. The world, in short, is rolling over. Debt monetization on the scale so far attempted has failed to stop the implosion of tens of trillions of dollars of bad paper, growth has stalled and geopolitics has begun to turmoil. And none of this is a surprise. It’s just what you get when you put monetary printing presses in the hands of governments and/or big banks.

Peak Debt, Peak Doubt, & Peak Double-Down

Investors are too complacent (the Minsky-Moment).  Too many are still trying to profit from the Fed subsidy of past stimulus. Investors remain loaded in risk assets, incentivized by the need to beat peers and benchmarks and comforted into complacency by the Fed ‘put’. The true level of risk is being ignored. The pervasive mentality of seeking maximum risk has become a terrible risk/reward trade for two main reasons...