Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s carefully planned move to become legal dictator of Turkey is in its final stages. In the wake of a foiled coup, Erdogan removed or imprisoned every judge not on his side, shut down all opposition newspapers, and jailed all of his political opponents. After his hand-picked court approved the changes Erdogan wanted, all that remains is a Public Referendum which Erdogan will win simply because he gets to count the votes...
We've all been eagerly waiting to see them: Venezuela's crisp,brand new yet soon to be hyperinflated with many more zeros banknotes, and finally, after various failed attempts to deliver the new bills to Caracas (which according to Maduro were at least partially aborted due to pesky CIA meddling) they have arrived. And they are vertical.
"The opinions of experts concerning the future are accorded great weight . . . but they’re still just opinions. While I take a dim view of forecasts, and especially of opinions presented as facts, I do believe there are such things as facts. Unfortunately, however, the concept of 'facts' is among the casualties of the increasingly partisan environment. Recently we have seen both the elevation in status of 'non-facts', as well as the tearing down of 'real facts'."
In October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) committed a blunder when it issued a forecast for Venezuela’s end-of-year annual inflation rate. An inflation forecast in a country that is toying with hyperinflation is a mug’s game.
It is only a matter of time until Venezuela can no longer finance its imports and social and political chaos of unprecedented proportions will afflict the country. The fallout will also affect Venezuela’s neighboring countries.
Bitcoin is no stranger to extreme fluctuations. As Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardons notes, for each of the last four years, the cryptocurrency has either been the best or the worst performing currency – with nothing to be found in between.
At its peak, the Roman Empire held up to 130 million people over a span of 1.5 million square miles. Rome had conquered much of the known world. The Empire built 50,000 miles of roads, as well as many aqueducts, amphitheatres, and other works that are still in use today. How could such a powerful empire collapse?
Venezuela’s central government has issued new dollar debt for the first time in more than five years, selling $5 billion in notes effectively to itself, using China's Haitong securities as underwriter, in what has been dubbed a "mysterious" transaction.
"The idea that paper money could replace intrinsically valuable gold and precious metals... was both revolutionary and immensely seductive. It was in fact financial alchemy - the creation of extraordinary financial powers that defy reality and common sense. Pursuit of this monetary elixir has brought a series of economic disasters - from hyperinflation to banking collapses."
We expect global monetary authorities to protect the dollar as long as they can and we expect them to fail. Stocks and bonds will react violently; stocks and weak credits falling, treasuries prices rising (at first). That failure will lead to hyperinflation – not driven by demand, but rather by central bank money printing. A new global monetary understanding will then emerge.
The Bank of Japan is set to become the biggest buyer of exchange-traded funds in 2016 for the second straight year. According to data through Thursday, the value of the BOJ's ETF purchases this year has topped 4.3 trillion yen, up 40% from 2015. As a result, the BOJ "will become the largest buyer of ETFs this year," according to Mizuho Securities.
"Markets don’t have a purpose any more - they just reflect whatever central planners want them to. Why wouldn’t it lead to the biggest collapse? My strategy doesn’t require that I’m right about the likelihood of that scenario. Logic dictates to me that it’s inevitable..."