Hyperinflation

As part of yesterday's hearing with Ben Bernanke before the House Financial Services Committee, Ron Paul provided the following statement in which he blasts the Fed's ever-increasing cluelessness over monetary policy and its disastrous Catch 22 implications: "the Fed only sees what is seen, the superficial results of its policies, and not what is unseen, the effects of its monetary intervention throughout the economy. Monetary inflation leads to malinvestment and causes the boom phase of the business cycle. Once the malinvestment is realized the bust phase occurs, and these malinvested resources need to be liquidated in order for the economy to recover. But the Fed actively works to prevent this liquidation and does everything in its power to continue inflating in order to prolong the boom. The first act of intervention begets the second and subsequent interventions, each bigger than the first, as each economic bust gets larger and more severe." As the only thing that currently matters for the economy, for LBO rumors, and for stock picking in general is the overabundance of liquidity, one wonders to what rabbit holes the Fed's push for central planning of the US economy will eventually lead us: "The Soviet Union's economy failed because of its central planning, and the United States economy will suffer the same fate if we continue down the path toward more centralized control."

The velocity of money is collapsing. The end of a 50 year super cycle in lending. The government might as well be pushing on a wet noodle. The gold bugs have got it all wrong. The chances of the Fed being able to head off an inflationary burst are close to nil. But the bond vigilantes may have to wait a couple of years. Tax hikes of 3% of GDP next year will strangle the recovery in the crib. A wide ranging, in depth interview with John Mauldin on Hedge Fund Radio.

In the latest stellar analysis by Dylan Grice, the SocGen analyst discusses the reasons for not only owning gold (and
there really isn't a more profound one than taking a trip to the Marriner Eccles building and checking out what goes on in the first subbasement) but, more importantly to many, selling it. His summary view on owning Au⁷⁹: "The reason I own gold is because I'm worried about the long-term solvency of developed market governments." We all know developed markets are now insolvent and merely exist due to the continued debasement of fiat paper. Period. As to when to sell: "Eventually, there will be a crisis of such magnitude that the political winds change direction, and become blustering gales forcing us onto the course of fiscal sustainability. Until it does, the temptation to inflate will remain, as will economists with spurious mathematical rationalisations as to why such inflation will make everything OK . Until it does, the outlook will remain favorable for gold. But eventually, majority opinion will accept the painful contractionary medicine because it will have to. That will be the time to sell gold." Courtesy of universal denial of our current predicament, we still have a long, long time before acceptance sets in.

Either we are going to get hyperinflation and all tangible assets will explode 100 pct or more to the upside, gold will be at $5000/oz and paper money is history. Or we are getting Japan in the ‘90s with no chance of inflation because consumers will save, not spend no matter what the politicians do and all markets will be down 50/80 pct from here. Pay your money and make your choice. - Ebullio Capital Management

Phinance's phavorite political prisoner, Martin Armstrong, cautions that "the EU is in dire position", on the precipice of shattering. Since "debts will never be paid and interest expenditures are the greatest transfer of wealth in history ... Western society is falling apart ... If we do not act, civil unrest will explode. The current choice is DEFAULT or HIGHER TAXES & CIVIL UNREST ... Someone has to step forward to save us or we may be doomed. It's time to wake up for this is the future of our children and their children at stake. "

We comb through today's key Q&A by Ron Paul, Brad Sherman, Spencer Bacchus and Scott Garrett to find all the relevant instances in which Ben Bernanke either a) pleads the fifth, b) provides reasons to doubt his sanity, c) confuses what monetary policy is all about (not to mention cause and effect), d) forces Zero Hedge to send an Econ 101 textbook to the Marriner Eccles building c/o Ben Shalom Bernanke, or, e) lies outright.

What is $50 billion between a couple of psychopaths? It's basically “a drop in the ocean” according to Max Abelson's account of how the Repo 105 fiasco is seen by the other side. Several ex-Lehman bankers speak off the record in "The repo men's new Lehman shrug" and confirm that not only is Wall Street terminally deluded in its own self-importance, but that basically everyone in finance is a megalomaniac, with no sense of relative worth, or any worth, for that matter, unless it goes straight into their back pocket. “I’m like, whatever" says London managing director #1, when asked what his reaction to the Repo 105 disclosure is. So when is it not "whatever?" $500 billion? $500 trillion? In its pursuit of finding ever more complex ways of defrauding the middle class silly (without the latter even being aware its share of net global wealth is about to decline from 1% to half that), Wall Street's bankers have passed the clinical psychopathology barrier, and will stop at nothing to destroy the wealth of everyone else not only with impunity, but with a smirk and a smile. Now that's net worth change you can believe in.

GATA's Adrian Douglas has done a tremendous job of combing through dozens of hundred-plus page FOMC transcripts, and has compiled numerous quotes by assorted FOMC-related personnel, including former Chairman Greenspan, which provides yet another piece of evidence, demonstrating the persistence of the Fed's gold price suppression scheme. As Douglas puts it: "My thinking was that if an organization is so inept at covering up that detailed transcripts were retained, then perhaps it is also inept at completely redacting sensitive and incriminating information. What I found is quite astounding and serves as documented evidence by the Federal Reserve itself that it manipulates the gold market." We present the relevant quotes dug up by Douglas, whom we applaud for his effort, together with his very relevant commentary, which once again exposes the Fed's covert gold price suppression intentions.

It doesn't take rocket science to understand 2 basic ways we can reduce our debt ...

• Bring back the capitalist model (Washington Times)
• Initial claims at 462,000, higher than consensus, continuing claims higher by 37,000; snow not implicated (Bloomberg, Reuters)
• Naked swap crackdown in Europe rings hollow without Washington (Bloomberg)
• Volcker rule gets lift in Senate amid reform talks (Reuters)
• Greeks strike over budget cuts, stocks decline (NYT, Bloomberg, Reuters)
• China inflation surges (Bloomberg, Reuters)

As the financial crisis has unfolded over the last two years, the Federal Reserve has been responding in a variety of unprecedented ways. Therefore, it is logical to assume that these never-before-used actions have altered long-established ways of viewing things. One area that has been impacted is the US dollar money supply.

• Evans-Pritchard: Don't go wobbly on us now, Mr. Bernanke (Telegraph)
• Euro drops, pounds plummets below $1.48 for first time since May (Bloomberg)
• Greece now, U.K. next as Scots ready for pound plunge (Bloomberg)
• Summarizing eurozone's derivative deals, at least those known to date (XE.com)
• Alphaville's 72 hour delayed breaking news on Weimar hyperinflation: about par for the comfortably oxygenated FT blog (FTA, and Zero Hedge)
• RBS paid £1.3 billion to bankers on profit of £1.0 billion in 2009 (Telegraph)

SocGen's Dylan Grice provides a gripping account of Germany's hyperinflationary episode, in which he charts the extended parallels between not just the precursor economy that lead to a 16,579,999% inflation in 1923 Weimar Germany, and modern day developed (and highly leveraged) countries, but between Germany's then central banker Rudolf von Havenstein, and the Greenspan-Bernanke duo. And while we know how "der Geld Marschall's" Weimar experiment ended, the future before the U.S., as a result of the Maestro's (both Senior and Junior) almost identical policy response is still open-ended. As the future of America is now exclusively in the hands of insidious economists, the following insight from Grice into the utility of economic models and decision-making should be sufficient to dash the hopes of any optimist for a favorable outcome.

Just in case Americans weren't schizophrenic enough, listening to Obama and CNBC telling them to spend, spend, spend, even if that means maxing out all credit cards (relax, Uncle Sam will take care of that 1,800 day delinquent account by covering 99.999% of principal losses once hyperinflation hits a few quadrillion % per day), here comes the FDIC, with the other side of the coin, imploring" consumers across the nation to consider establishing a basic savings account or boosting existing savings." And with that the insanity that is now the United States of America is laid ba(ir)re for all to see. The question of just how underfunded US banks are if the FDIC has to resort to such fund raising gimmicks is obviously irrelevant. Well, not quite - luckily, the FDIC will come out this week with its quarterly banking update so we can all see how many tens of billions the DIF burned through in the past 3 months.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is outstanding in his expose on Europe's increasingly more evident deflationist cul-de-sac, and the ever more obvious L-shaped "recovery" facing Europe. While it has taken fans of the euro currency a mere two short months to not just diametrically change their exposure vis-a-vis the "long" currency of choice, but to allow speculators to build record euro short positions, the question of how America (and China by virtue of its dollar peg) will deal with euro currency that has no choice but to go lower, becomes an increasingly thorny issue. And to further confound deficit worries, recent overtures by the Fed in the form a discount rate hike make it all too obvious that the bond market will likely soon demand a much more substantial "pound of flesh" to fund America's burgeoning deficit. In this context, the threat of increasing rates, coupled with a euro that could reach $1.25 according to Morgan Stanley, and hit a low of $1.10 according to Albert Edwards, makes the policy prospects before the Federal Reserve so much more daunting.