• Bruno de Landevoisin
    09/21/2014 - 14:52
    Dear Janet; If I may be so forward, as a concerned citizen of the Constitutional Republic of the United States, it is with great consternation that I feel compelled to write you this distressing...

Hyperinflation

Tyler Durden's picture

Hyperinflation As A Debt Repudiation Device? No According To UBS, Yes According To Recently Declassified IMF Paper





Some time ago UBS economist Paul Donovan claimed that hyperinflation as a policy tool to inflate away a staggering debt load (for those of you who have missed all the recent musings by SocGen's Edwards and Grice, this is precisely the situation the developed world countries, not to mention the STUPIDs, find themselves in right now) is unworkable due to the impacts this type of concerted action would have on broader markets. "The idea that governments can readily inflate their way out of their debt problems is a misnomer — arising, perhaps, from confusion between the fate of the individual bondholder and the response of the collective market... [M]odern governments can not rely on markets to remain collectively indifferent to inflation. Inflation will raise the nominal cost of borrowing (of course) but through the inflation uncertainty risk premium it will also add to the real cost of borrowing." Yet a recently declassified paper by the IMF's Guillermo Calvo "Is Inflation Effective for Liquidating Short-Term Nominal Debt?" (a document which was previously not for public use) comes to a frighteningly different conclusion, one which could imply that the last weapon in the Fed's, and the administration's arsenal, could very well be just this heretofore unthinkable "bazooka approach" previously thought only possible in such developing countries as Korea and Venezuela.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post : Stretch To Farthest Point Known - Thoughts on a Hyperinflation Event





Let’s assume for a moment that Goldman Sachs is wrong. After all, at most points in time and space, predictions tend to fail—except the lucky ones. So it’s good to think through scenarios that one would consider extremely remote. Active risk management means low probability / high catastrophic outcome tail events must be hedged, and as importantly, gain exposure to those pesky Blacks Swans in ways that lead to advantage. To accomplish this, it helps to obtain a quantitative sense of their impact, to get a “feel for the cloth” as an wise former boss of mine used to say. So let’s try here.

What if the Fed more than succeeds in reflating and the end result is hyperinflation? As remote a possibility as I think this is, they really could print a way to another, completely different type of economic destruction. All they have to do is print proactively, not reactively.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Key Theme In Interview With ShadowStats' John Williams - (You Guessed It) Hyperinflation And The Death Of The US Economy





Q: "What can we do to avoid hyperinflation? What if we just shut down the Fed or something like that?:

A: "We can't. The actions have already been taken to put us in it. It's beyond control. The government does put out financial statements usually in December using generally accepted accounting principles, where unfunded liabilities like Medicare and Social Security are included in the same way as corporations account for their employee pension liabilities. And in 2008, for example, the one-year deficit was $5.1 trillion dollars. And that's instead of the $450 billion, plus or minus, that was officially reported." - John Williams

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Has John Williams' Hyperinflation Thesis Been Delayed As Core CPI Comes In Flat?





Recently, an extended analysis by Shadow Stats' John Williams evaluated the risk of a hyperinflationary episode as one which has the potential to come as soon as next year. Somewhat in support of this theory yesterday's read of PPI came in above consensus, indicating that inflation may indeed be coming. Yet today's CPI data, whose core read came in at 0.0%, may have just poured a whole lot of cold water over Williams' thesis. Nonetheless, at the end of the day Williams may be right: the question remains - if and when the excess reserves start hitting the broader currency (as the Fed is scared shitless to withdraw liquidity on its own), we may experience a transition from deflation to inflation so rapid, that is has no historic analog. At the end of the day deflation will likely be the name of the game for quite some time, until such point as "Man of the Year" Bernanke finally flips (the turbo print switch on), and any pretence of prudent monetary policy is thrown out of the window. At that point, look for the stock market to promptly go to 36,000 followed by an even faster drop to 0, all the while the dollar gets hyperdeflated (Zimbabwe redux). With the Administration set on not losing the midterm elections by a landslide, don't expect much in terms of economic experimentation at least until 2011. At that point, all bets will be off as the Fed will likely have at most 2 more years of shelf life before both its, and thus Wall Street's, life support are forcefully yanked out.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Saved By 12 Zeroes; Zimbabwe Gets Creative in Battling Hyperinflation





In what may not be the most effective way to battle hyperinflation, Zimbabwe Central Bank governor (now that is a misnomer) Gideon Gono is making "its foreign exchange more transparent" and cutting 12 zeroes from the currency, i.e. a trillion to one exchange conversion.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Whither Hyperinflation





It seems there are two sorts of people out there right now: those who say that no matter how much money the government throws at every problem it will never result in hyperinflation, and those that say that hyperinflation is now an inevitability regardless of what actions are taken fr

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Whither Hyperinflation





It seems there are two sorts of people out there right now: those who say that no matter how much money the government throws at every problem it will never result in hyperinflation, and those that say that hyperinflation is now an inevitability regardless of what actions are taken fr

 
Syndicate content
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!