Ice Age

War Gaming - Part 1: Nukes & Terrorism

We will examine American hegemony from a foreign nation’s perspective. In other words, if a nation wanted to attack the U.S. to either replace the U.S. as global superpower or to create conditions that would allow it to act freely to establish regional hegemony, how would this be accomplished?

The Epidemic Of Bad Ideas

Our education begins within a few minutes of arriving on planet Earth. That’s when we begin to learn that crying and carrying on is rewarded with coddling and nourishment. That particular lesson stays with us throughout our lives, more so with some people than others. But once our parents hand the keys to our brains to professional teachers, any number of factors come to play in our education... and even terrible ideas can spread virulently.

Against The Tyranny Of The So-Called Experts

America’s elite – that collection of puffed up mediocrities who until recently held the undisputed command of the heights of our politics and culture – is in crisis. Its unbroken track record of failure has finally stirred the rest of America from its coma.

Dave Collum's 2016 Year In Review - "And Then Things Got Really Weird..."

"Markets don’t have a purpose any more - they just reflect whatever central planners want them to. Why wouldn’t it lead to the biggest collapse? My strategy doesn’t require that I’m right about the likelihood of that scenario. Logic dictates to me that it’s inevitable..."

The Climate Changes Back – What Comes Next?

How can this be happening? We were supposed to be doomed! If this surfeit of good news on the climate continues, it will threaten to derail a major gravy train. In short, the big pause is continuing...

Presenting SocGen's "Most Frightening Credit Chart"

"I sometimes feel like ‘The Grim Reaper’, scouring the research savannah in a ghoulish quest to harvest bad news with a forceful sweep of my scythe. Imagine then my perverse delight when our credit team produced what is one of the scariest charts I have seen for a very long time." = Albert Edwards

'Real' Money & Why You Need It Now, Part 2

"It might work for a while. But the falcon of asset prices becomes deaf to the falconer of the real economy. Then, in a kind of financial never-never land, he gets lost completely and flies into a tree. Asset prices fall to the ground. Investors panic. Lenders call their loans. Art investors rush to auction off their tableaux. Lines form at ATMs."

Bernanke Urges Use Of Negative Rates When Next Recession Strikes

"the fact that negative rates would be temporary and deployed only during severely adverse economic conditions would be an advantage. Like quantitative easing, which was also unpopular in many quarters, a period of negative rates would probably be tolerated by politicians if properly motivated and explained" - Ben Bernanke

What Happens When The "Fed Model" Breaks Down

"One thing we learnt from Japan is that the equity secular valuation bear market takes many economic cycles to unfold and ends when equities are ?dirt cheap?. US equities did not get dirt cheap in March 2009 at a Shiller PE of 14x - they just got cheap. To be dirt cheap they needed to half again from the 666 level they reached."