The more we think about it, the less the classical division between microeconomics (which studies the behavior of individuals and production entities) and macroeconomics (which deals with the performance of the economy as a whole and not its individual markets and components) makes any sense - certainly not in the 21st century. And in our view it is this disconnect between the two that is at the heart of the failure of Keynesian economics – which at best is incomplete and at worst is all just baloney.
- China’s Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates (WSJ)
- Chinese Stocks Crash Again to Extend Biggest Plunge Since 1996 (BBG)
- China cuts rates, reserve ratio to aid economy as stocks sink (Reuters)
- Wall St. suffers worst day in four years, S&P confirms correction (Reuters)
- Europe's Stocks Head for Best Day Since 2011 (BBG)
- Market turmoil clouds Fed rate outlook (FT)
- For All Its Heft, China’s Economy Is a Black Box (WSJ)
As asset bubbles are in the way of the Fed’s policy, a decline in stock prices removes the equity market bubble and enables the Fed to print more money and start the process up again. On the other hand, the stock market decline could indicate that the players in the market have comprehended that the stock market is an artificially inflated bubble that has no real basis. Once the psychology is destroyed, flight sets in.
The hard data runs completely counter to the uptick in GDP growth shown by Fed's models.
After a week of relentless FX volatility, spilling over out of China and into all other countries, and asset products, it was as if the market decided to take a time-out overnight, assisted by the PBOC which after three days of record devaluations finally revalued the Yuan stronger fractionally by 0.05% to 6.3975. And then, as a parting gift perhaps, just as the market was about to close again, the Chinese central bank intervened sending the Onshore Yuan, spiking to a level of 6.3912 as of this writing, notably stronger than the official fixing for the second day in a row. In fact the biggest news out of China overnight is that contrary to expectations, the PBOC once again "added" to its gold holdings, boosting its official gold by 610,000 ounces, or 19 tons, to 1,677 tones.
- China central bank under pressure to weaken yuan further (Reuters)
- Currency Rout Goes Global as Jen Sees Risk of 50% Loss on China (BBG)
- Europe Stocks Fall Most in Two Weeks as China Sparks Growth Fear (BBG)
- German Yields Drop to Record as China Boosts Bonds Around World (BBG)
- FT to Japan, Economist to Italy: Agnelli Family Raises Stake in Economist as Pearson Exits (BBG)
- Goldman Sachs to Give Out ‘Secret Sauce’ on Trading (WSJ)
- Greece's Preliminary Bailout Deal Faces German Turbulence (BBG)
The best time to prepare for trouble... is before trouble arrives.
- Turkey says coalition to launch 'comprehensive battle' against Islamic State (Reuters)
- Buffett’s Celebration Tempered by 50th Anniversary Stock Slump (BBG)
- SEC Set to Approve CEO Pay-Gap Disclosure Rule (WSJ)
- Greece wants full bailout, not bridge loan, ruling party says (Reuters)
- Stocks Rise Fueled by Strong European Corporate Earnings and Chinese Data (WSJ)
- JPMorgan Reclaims Place Among U.S.'s Top 10 Biggest Stocks (BBG)
- Eurozone retail sales fall sharply in June (MW)
- Deadline Draws Near for Puerto Rico (WSJ)
- U.S. to defend Syrian rebels with airpower, including from Assad (Reuters)
- Alpha Natural Resources to Seek Chapter 11 (WSJ)
- Iran’s Rouhani Says Nuclear Deal ‘More Than What Was Imagined’ (BBG)
- Cables Show Hillary Clinton's State Department Deeply Involved in Trans-Pacific Partnership (IBTimes)
- Win or Lose, U.S. Stocks Get Biggest Earnings Bang Since ’12 (BBG)
- Weaker China factories argue for more policy support as stocks swoon (Reuters)
Put simply, both sales and earnings are rolling over… at a time when the S&P 500 is close to all-time highs. This is a recipe for a correction if not a crash.
And how you will be paying for her 'exit party' bill...
This charmed circle includes Google, Amazon, Baidu, Facebook, Saleforce.com, Netflix, Pandora, Tesla, LinkedIn, ServiceNow, Splunk, Workday, Ylep, Priceline, QLIK Technologies and Yandex. Taken altogether, their market cap clocked in at $1.3 trillion on Friday. That compares to just $21 billion of LTM net income for the entire index combined. The talking heads, of course, would urge not to be troubled. After all, what’s a 61X trailing PE among today’s leading tech growth companies?
We love reading quotes from Hussman in 2000 and 2007. The air is getting pretty thin up here. A stock market driven by Google, Apple, Netflix and a few other tech darlings with no earnings does not make a market. Time is running out for the bulls. The same morons on CNBC ridiculed and scorned his facts then and they scorn and ridicule him now. Do we trust Jim Cramer and Steve Liesman or John Hussman? Guess.
- Chinese stocks tumble again, ignoring Beijing's blandishments (Reuters)
- Plight of Greek pensioners heaps pressure on Tsipras (Reuters)
- Cash Crunch Hits Everyday Life in Greece (WSJ)
- Souvlakis Tell a Story Well Beyond Today's Greek Crisis (BBG)
- Greek Referendum on Bailout Too Close to Call, Poll Shows (BBG)
- Move Over Greece: For Treasuries Traders, Today Is About the Fed (BBG)
- ECB adds corporate names to QE-eligible bonds (FT)
- Special Report: How Greece went bust (Reuters)
- Puerto Rico’s Pain Is Tied to U.S. Wages (WSJ)
The Export-Import Bank died last night when its charter expired. After 81 years, what is commonly known as Boeing’s Bank is headed toward Washington’s trash bin. When Congress returns it could revive Ex-Im, which primarily subsidizes big business exports. But a proper burial for what Barack Obama once called “corporate welfare” would save Americans money, reduce economic injustice, and promote economic growth. Ex-Im’s closure is a very rare victory for the good guys in Washington. Crony capitalism is running rampant in America, undermining confidence in a market economy.