Gross Domestic Product

An Indicator Of Peril

"Since 1948 there have been 277 quarters of data. RVA has only been negative during recessions or in proximity to periods leading up to and/or following recessions... it is currently in negative territory..."

Why Blackrock Isn't Worried At All About Record Low Volatility

"Low stock market vol only seems to keep getting lower. Yet we believe there are good reasons for vol to be subdued. Looking back, we find low-vol regimes, when U.S. equity volatility averages 10%, can last for years. That means realized U.S. equity vol has historically stayed low for remarkably long periods of time."

Not All Capital Is Equal; Some Is Destructive

Hot money capital is not productive; it is destructive. The naive belief that all capital is a priori productive blinds us to the havoc wreaked by the financialization monster that has the global economy by the throat.

China's Minsky Moment Is Imminent

Everything you wanted to know about the looming bursting of the world's biggest credit bubble, but were afraid to ask...

Europe's Banking Dysfunction Worsens

Investors who think that Europe is close to adopting an effective approach to dealing with failing banks may want to think again....