Gross Domestic Product
Late on Friday afternoon, after recording its biggest monthly points gain in history, the S&P500 unexpectedly took a surprising swoon lower to close trading well in the red. This chart may be the reason why.
Central banks can’t afford a big correction to take place as it goes counter to their mandate, a stable growing economy, hence they interfere every single time a correction of size is about to unfold. And any threat to the global economy must be prevented. Now that fiscal year end mark-ups are over for many funds buyers have to prove how committed they are to driving markets higher. Price will ultimately confirm how this will play out, but altogether this chart is an amazing construct of symmetry and, as fans of structures and symmetry, it certainly has our attention. We can’t recall ever seeing such a precise structure.
As An American, I'm FURIOUS that We've Squandered Our Strengths and Resources ...
The weakness seen in world economic activity is partly the result of the lack of a real purge of the financial system in 2008. It has become unimaginable to let entire parts of the system collapse, and the titling of some financial institutions as “systemic” is part of this logic. Policymakers attempting to keep unhealthy economic and financial institutions alive are making a mistake. The very essence of capitalism lies in the process of creative destruction. What we see here is not a way out of the crisis. Instead, we are on the edge of a new financial disaster.
- China's central bank cuts rates for sixth time since November (Reuters)
- Global stocks hit two-month high on dovish Draghi message (Reuters)
- $6.5 Billion in Energy Writedowns and We're Just Getting Started (BBG)
- Alphabet, formerly Google, sets share buyback, shares jump (Reuters)
- Hurricane Patricia, Stronger Than Katrina, Nears Mexico (BBG)
- TVA Cleared to Start First New U.S. Nuclear Power Plant in Nearly 20 Years (WSJ)
Current oil prices are simply not low enough to stop over-production. Unless external investment capital is curtailed and producers learn to live within cash flow, a production surplus and low oil prices will persist for years.
AsiaPac stocks were generally lower heading into the all-important Chinese macro data (S&P -6pts, Japan -0.7%, China -0.2%) as JPY erased Friday's ramp and crude dropped back below $47. The PBOC left the Onshore Yuan fix practically unchanged (following Friday's significant devaluation). Then the data hit... China GDP beat expectations (printing 6.9% YoY vs 6.8% exp) but is still the lowest growth since Q1 2009. Industrial Production missed (printing 5.7% YoY vs 6.0% exp). Retail Sales beat (10.9% YoY vs 10.8% exp). The initial reaction was kneejerk buying in USDJPY and stocks but that is fading as "good news" will relieve The Fed's angst over growth...
Capitalism isn’t – wasn’t – the problem. The culprit instead was unsound finance and deeply flawed monetary management. In short, Capitalism cannot function effectively within a backdrop of unfettered cheap finance. Things appear miraculous during the boom, and then the bust discombobulates. Contemporary central bank rate administration essentially abandoned the self-adjusting and regulating market system for determining the price of finance – so fundamental to Capitalism.
Hedge fund manager wonders: what happens to the petrodollar as the "sub-prime of this decade" goes up in flames?
As the German refugee crisis has now dragged down not only Merkel, whose popularity rating just tumbled to a four year low "reflecting growing concern over the influx of hundreds of thousands of refugees into Germany, a poll showed on Thursday", but has exposed "free speech" advocate Facebook as merely another government propaganda pawn, Germany has been scrambling to find some silver lining on this scandal. It did just that on Friday, when the bank with the greatest amount of notional derivatives in Europe and the world, Deutsche Bank, raised its German 2016 GDP forecast "because the heavy influx of migrants would increase consumption as much as half a percentage point."
The results from Portugal's elections are beginning to trickle in and according to exit polls, Coelho's coalition has prevailed. According to Bloomberg, the ruling coalition of Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho has won 38%-43% of vote and 108-116 seats.
The shark jumping continues as Citi says its analysts "have found serious residual seasonality in payroll reports for the period from August through October"...
“The king is not in a stable condition and in reality the son of the king [Mohammed bin Salman] is ruling the kingdom,” the prince said. “So four or possibly five of my uncles will meet soon to discuss the letters. They are making a plan with a lot of nephews and that will open the door. A lot of the second generation is very anxious.”
In a move that would make even Hewlett-Packard's Meg Whitman blush, Harbin-based Heilongjiang Longmay Mining Holding Group, or Longmay Group, the biggest met coal miner in northeast China which has been struggling to reduce massive losses in recent months as a result of the commodity collapse, just confirmed China's "hard-landing" has arrived when it announced on its website it would cut 100,000 jobs or 40% of its entire 240,000-strong labor force.
Having completed his militarist plans, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe appears to have gone full fantasy-tard with his latest "plans" for the demographically-dead and debt-destroyed nation. "Creating a strong economy will continue to be my top priority," Abe said, a goal he has stunningly under-achieved as Japan heads for its 5th recession in 4 years, but, as Bloomberg reports, it is his new "arrows" of economic hope that has left analysts scratching their heads - 20% economic growth (when its gone nowhere for years), a higher birth rate (as the aging of the nation accelerates and interest in sex plunges), and allegedly a goose that lays golden eggs (well why not?). The collapse of Abe's approval says it all about his 'plan'.