International Monetary Fund

Frontrunning: October 17

  • Bonds Selloff Spreads on Inflation Concern; Stocks Fall With Oil (BBG)
  • Trump charges U.S. election results being rigged 'at many polling places'  (Reuters)
  • CNN’s Stelter Blames Firebombing of NC Republican Office on Trump's 'Over Heated' Rhetoric (Newsbusters)
  • Britain, France seek EU condemnation of Russia over Syria (Reuters)
  • Inside the Secret Society of Wall Street's Top In-House Lawyers (BBG)

Recession Now... Or Depression Later

Currently economists and market watchers roughly fall into two camps: Those who believe that the Federal Reserve must begin raising interest rates now so that it will have enough rate cutting firepower to fight the next recession, and those who believe that raising rates now will simply precipitate an immediate recession and force the Fed into battle without the tools it has traditionally used to stimulate growth. Both camps are delusional, but for different reasons.

Frontrunning: October 11

  • Samsung scraps Note 7 (Reuters)
  • Note 7 fiasco could burn a $17 billion hole in Samsung accounts (Reuters)
  • Trump's struggles may depress Democratic voter turnout (Reuters)
  • Major Investor Sues Theranos  (WSJ)
  • S. Africa’s Gordhan to Be Charged; Rand Plunges Most Since June (BBG)
  • Oil price falls back from one-year highs, hit by OPEC deal concerns (Reuters)

Do You Believe In QE Miracles?

"This is a very artificial market," warns Allianz' Mohammed El-Erian, and while markets are expecting an ever increasing pace of central bank buying of assets, their policies are no longer working...

A Mile-High House Of Cards

The mass media and establishment economists don’t dare call it a depression. But a depression it is.

The Economic "Recovery" Feels Weak Because The Great Recession Never Really Ended

"We are not in a recovery and were not really in a traditional recession. People think of a business cycle as a boom, followed by a recession and then there are automatic stabilizers that revive the economy, but this time, we can't revive. And the reason is that every recovery since 1945 has begun with a higher, and higher, and higher level of debt. And the debt is so high now that since 2008 we've been in what I call, debt deflation."