International Monetary Fund
AsiaPac stocks were generally lower heading into the all-important Chinese macro data (S&P -6pts, Japan -0.7%, China -0.2%) as JPY erased Friday's ramp and crude dropped back below $47. The PBOC left the Onshore Yuan fix practically unchanged (following Friday's significant devaluation). Then the data hit... China GDP beat expectations (printing 6.9% YoY vs 6.8% exp) but is still the lowest growth since Q1 2009. Industrial Production missed (printing 5.7% YoY vs 6.0% exp). Retail Sales beat (10.9% YoY vs 10.8% exp). The initial reaction was kneejerk buying in USDJPY and stocks but that is fading as "good news" will relieve The Fed's angst over growth...
HINT: Monitor Russia for more clues...
PBOC strengthens Yuan by most since Nov 2014
The message from China was heard loud and clear from the IMF meetings in Lima: The United States [Fed] "should assume its global responsibilities" given the dollar's status as reserve currency; "now is not the time to raise rates."
Though emerging economies’ debts seem largely moderate by historic standards, it seems likely that they are being underestimated, perhaps by a large margin. If so, the magnitude of the ongoing reversal in capital flows that emerging economies are experiencing may be larger than is generally believed – potentially large enough to trigger a crisis. In this context, keeping track of opaque and evolving financial linkages is more important than ever.
- Central Bankers Urge Fed to Get On With Interest-Rate Increase (WSJ)
- Bond Market Casualties Leading Biggest S&P 500 Revival Since '11 (BBG)... on hopes of more easing
- U.S. Patrols to Test China’s Pledge on South China Sea Islands (WSJ)
- Merkel Under Fire: German Conservatives Deeply Split over Refugees (Spiegel)
- Assault Weapons Ban Before U.S. Supreme Court (NBC)
- Hedge Funds Are Playing 'Dangerous Game' With Copper (BBG)
“Capitalism is not primarily an incentive system but an information system.” Prices are the information. And the price of time itself is the single most valuable piece of information. Time, as we intuitively know, is money; they are two sides of the same coin. Mess with time and money, and you mess with everything else. Yet as with central planning in general, the central planning of either money, or time, cannot possibly work. Hayek warned the economics profession of precisely this in the 1970s. They didn’t listen, ensconced as they still remain within their interventionist Keynesian paradigm. Well that paradigm is about to be blown apart, time and money are about to return to the market, where they belong, and real, sustainable economic progress is about to restart once again.
The warnings are getting louder. Is anybody listening?
- Global stocks eye biggest rally in four years on Fed relief (Reuters)
- FOMC Minutes Sap Confidence in Fed's 2015 Rate Hike Resolve (BBG)
- Glencore to cut annual zinc production by a third (FT)
- Tea Party wave that lifted Republicans threatens to engulf them (Reuters)
- Why Kevin McCarthy Came to Quit Speaker Race (WSJ)
- A U.S. Recession Just Got a Little More Likely (BBG)
"I Would Say Don't Worry" Says Chinese Central Banker As Indian Central Banker Says "World Economy Is Looking Grim"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/07/2015 20:17 -0400
"I would say, don't worry" said Yi Gang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, after the International Monetary Fund warned of risks in China's economic challenges.
"The world economy is looking grim" - said Raghuram Rajan, Indian central bank governor and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.
- How Iranian general plotted out Syrian assault in Moscow (Reuters)
- China FX reserves post record quarterly fall as cenbank steps up yuan support (Reuters)
- MSF calls for independent inquiry into U.S. attack on Afghan hospital (Reuters)
- Yen Advances as Bank of Japan Refrains From Adding to Stimulus (Reuters)
- Abu Dhabi Said to Explore Asset Sales After Slump in Oil Price (BBG)
- U.S. Oil Approaching $50 Boosts Stocks as Emerging Markets Surge (BBG)
"The data are positive for the probability of the yuan getting into the SDR basket. It shows that the so-called devaluation in August, which wasn’t massive in value, hasn’t driven people away from using the yuan."
"There’s a lack of faith in monetary policy -- you’ve thrown the kitchen sink at it, you’ve cut rates to zero, you’re printing money -- and still inflation is lower. I think this is a dangerous situation if people perceive that it has the responsibility and it doesn’t have the tools."
"The reason the markets aren't going lower is people are holding and hoping." Incidentally, there is a reason why hope is not a strategy: in the end, it always fails.
"The impotence of monetary policy in boosting growth and staving off deflationary pressures has become painfully apparent, especially when it is acting in isolation and when a large number of countries are resorting to the same limited playbook."
- After Rough Quarter, Investors Buckle Up (WSJ)
- From heroes to bystanders? Central banks' growth challenge (Reuters)
- Russian Airstrike in Syria Targeted CIA-Backed Rebels, U.S. Officials Say (WSJ)
- Kremlin says Syria air strikes target list of groups, not just Islamic State (Reuters)
- That’s information warfare? Russia accused of killing civilians in Syria (RT)
- Euro zone factory growth eases in August despite modest price rises (Reuters)
- How Glencore's Crazy Month Makes Greek Banks Look Tame (BBG)