India

The far more substantial risk from the pending budget negotiations remains as does the appalling US national debt and unfunded liability situation – both of which offer long term support to gold and silver.

The market lustily greeted the deal that U.S. Congress passed to raise taxes on the wealthy and spare the middle and lower income earners.

However, the very necessary cutting of budgets in various sectors, military and domestic, will no doubt fuel many more political battles as the nation’s finances continue to deteriorate.

One of the Fed Chairman's most memorable lines in recent history is that "gold is not money... it is tradition." Perhaps he was merely listening to the Fed's computers, Ferbus, Edo and Sigma, which we now know form the backbone of US central planning and whose DSGE model output is usually spot on until it happens to be catastrophically wrong, on the issue. Or perhaps that is merely what one is taught (and teaches) in the Princeton economics department. Whatever the reason for Bernanke's belief, don't show him this chart from a just released "Report of the Working Group to Study the Issues Related to Gold Imports and Gold Loans by NBFCs" in India, part of a coordinated campaign to minimize Indian gold demand and imports whose direct substitution to "(un)sound money" in the country is one of the reason being attributed for the nation's high current account deficit (as reported earlier) and why the finance minister said "demand for gold must be moderated." The chart shows the staggering eightfold increase in India's gold loans "which monetize the idle gold in the country", in just four short years. In short it proves that in India, gold is the only real money, and is the only fallback option in a country where inflation is still rampant, and where even simple peasants prefer to keep their wealth not in the local paper currency, which has been losing its value aggressively in recent years, but in the shiny metal. Must be "tradition."

While the predictions of Blackstone's Byron Wien (born in 1933), who may not be in the senate or "sleep-deprived", but this year will become an octogenarian, may have been all over the place in the past 10 years, some correct, but most miserably wrong (with a recent hit rate of about 25%), he always does provide entertainment value. Which is the only value in the latest release of his 10 forecasts for 2013. Naturally, take all of these with a salt mine.

As we wondered out loud yesterday, many have questioned the disconnect between increasingly burgeoning central bank balance sheets and money printing and the range-bound trading in Gold. It seems the first real hint of why is peeking through as the Economic Times reports the Indian government are growing increasingly concerned at the rate of gold imports. As the India Finance minister stated: "Demand for gold must be moderated... We may be left with no choice but to make it more expensive to import gold. The matter is under government consideration." Gold imports are playing a major part in India's record high current-account deficit (at $20.2bn for the period April to September), down 30.3% YoY thanks to a doubling of the customs duty on standard gold bars (to 4%). It seems the Indian powers-that-be are learning from their US and European leaders that if something is happening in a free-market that threatens the status quo even modestly - crush it with regulation and centrally-planned control. As the article goes on to note, currently, the government is also making efforts to channelise investor money into equities and other financial instruments to reduce demand for the yellow metal.

A broken safety net is no safety net at all.  

The U.S. federal deficit is now exceeding $1 trillion dollars every year —up from $161 billion in 2007, the last year before the financial crisis. Spending is up some $1 trillion, as outlays for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and other entitlements have increased by an amount equal to the entire 2013 military budget – a budget which may again surpass the combined military expenditure of every other nation in the world. U.S. unfunded liabilities are now estimated at between $50 trillion and $100 trillion and by the end of the decade (in less than just 7 years), runaway entitlement spending will require shutting down the military or crippling many other vital domestic spending programs to head off massive deficits that will likely lead to a dollar crisis and significant inflation. No matter what deal is eventually agreed, whether before or after the new year, it will at best nibble at the edges of the trillion dollar annual deficits that are being piled up. While all the focus has been on the so called U.S. ‘fiscal cliff’, amnesia has taken hold and many market participants have forgotten about the far from resolved Eurozone debt crisis – not to mention looming debt crisis in the UK and Japan.

• U.S. Family of Mao’s General Assimilates, Votes for Obama (Bloomberg)
• Iron ore prices hit eight-month high (FT)... four months after plunging and crushing iron ore miners
• Obama seeks 60 Senate votes for cliff deal (MarketWatch)
• Need. Moar. InfinitQEeee: Japan PM adviser urges unlimited BOJ easing, higher price goal (Reuters)
• Yen Touches 16-Month Low Versus Euro Before Japan CPI (BBG)
• China consumers driving economic rebound (Reuters) - ot just year end window dressing to accompany the new Politburo
• Rajaratnam agrees to pay $1.5 million disgorgement in SEC case (Reuters)
• France should review 2013 deficit target with EU partners (Reuters)
• Monti-led poll alliance takes shape (FT)
• Bersani wants growth-oriented Europe (FT)

On this lackluster Boxing Day dominated by illiquid moves in every asset class, we thought a few succinct minutes spent comprehending the US and European government policies of social welfare and their outcomes was time well spent. Canadian MP Pierre Poilievre delivers a rather epic speech destroying the myths of US and European 'wealth' noting that "Once the US citizen is in debt, the US government encourages them to stay in debt," noting that "the US government encouraged millions of Americans to spend money they did not have on homes they could not afford using loans they could never repay and then gave them a tax incentive never to repay it." His message, delivered seamlessly, notes the inordinate rise in the cost of all this borrowing, adding that "through debt interest alone, soon the US taxpayer will be funding 100% of the Chinese Military complex." From Dependence to Debt to the Welfare State and back to Dependence, this presentation puts incredible context on the false hope so many believe in the US and Europe. Everyone takes, nobody makes, work doesn't pay, indulgence doesn't cost, money is free, and money is worthless. Must watch.

• Grand Bargain Shrinks as Congress Nearing U.S. Budget Deadline (BBG)
• Budget Talks Cloud Outlook (WSJ)
• Obama to cut vacation short to deal with fiscal crisis (Reuters)
• Stop-gap fix most likely outcome of "fiscal cliff" talks (Reuters)
• Aso Named Japan’s Next Finance Chief as Abe Primes Fiscal Pump (BBG)
• Aluminum Glut No Bar to Gains as Barclays Says Sell (BBG)
• Morsi signs controversial charter into law  (FT)
• Children, many ill, would be victims of Russia ban on U.S. adoption (Reuters)
• Turkey Central Bank Unveils New Tool to Limit Bank Debt Risk (BBG)
• Refi Program Expansion Eyed (WSJ)
• India Joins Indonesia Facing Heightened Policy Dilemma (BBG)

For the time being, the silver price is essentially set in the paper market where the daily average trade on the Comex is approximately 300 million ounces. An outrageous number when you compare it to the daily mine production of about 2 million ounces. As Bart Chilton, Commissioner of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission stated on October 26, 2010, “I believe there have been repeated attempts to influence prices in silver markets. There have been fraudulent efforts to persuade and deviously control that price. Based on what I have been told and reviewed in publicly available documents, I believe violations to the Commodity Exchange Act have taken place in the silver market and any such violation of the law in this regard should be prosecuted.” Which brings us back to the phrase “Follow the money.” In our view, it is almost inconceivable that investors would allocate as many dollars to silver as they would to gold, but that is what the data shows. The silver investment market is very small. While the dollar value of gold in the world approaches $9 trillion, the value of silver in the forms of jewelry, coins, bars and silverware is estimated at around $150 billion (5 billion ounces at $30 per ounce). This is a ratio of 60:1 in dollar terms. How long can investors continue to buy silver at the current ratios when the availability for investment is only 3:1? We are surprised that the price of silver has remained at such a depressed level compared to gold. Historically, the price ratio between gold and silver has been 16:1, when both were currencies. Today the ratio is 55:1, so what are the numbers telling us? We believe this is one of those times when smart investors will be well rewarded to “Follow the money.”

One of the biggest complaints about gold - always a parallel currency to paper, and soon to be serial, once the world shifts to a post-paper currency reality in which faith in infinitely creatable electronic paper money is finally destroyed - is that it would be an impractical medium of exchange, as the traditional denominations are so large one would be unable to trade one ounce (and certainly one bar) for every day needs. This is also one of the main reasons various retail investors prefer silver over gold. All this may be changing courtesy of Swiss refiner Valcambi which has created a CombiBar, a credit-card sized, 50 gram block of 99.9 gold, which is precut, and which can easily be broken into one gram pieces which can then be used as forms of payment in an emergency. And since one gram of gold has roughly the value of two ounces of silver, it is a far more practical lowest common denominator unit of exchange than the traditional one ounce minimums in broad circulation.

• Global Currency Tensions Rise (WSJ) - in other words, when everyone eases to infinity, nobody eases
• EU to give Spain, France more time to cut deficit (Reuters) - But not because their economies are not "recovering" fast enough, oh no.
• As we expected, Grupo Bimbo considering a bid for Hostess' snack cakes and bread brands (NY Post)
• Time for bus-control: Eleven children killed in latest Chinese bus crash (Reuters)
• Greece Should Write Off Billions of Overdue Taxes, Report Says (BBG) - not all taxes in perpetuity?
• India clamps down on gang-rape protests, PM appeals for calm (Reuters)
• But Meredith Whitney said... Push for Cheaper Credit Hits Wall (WSJ)
• For Greece, last major austerity package, says eurozone official (Kathimerini)...  "unless there is another one"
• Americans Miss $200 Billion Abandoning Stocks (BBG) ... and two flash crashes... and $15 trillion in artificial central bank props
• Goldman Sachs Takes Long View Over Payouts (FT)
• Cliff Would Strike Low Incomes Hard (WSJ)
• Afghan policewoman kills US police adviser (AP)
• For Sale in Japan: Electronics Assets (WSJ)

Presenting Dave Collum's now ubiquitous and all-encompassing annual review of markets and much, much more. From Baptists, Bankers, and Bootleggers to Capitalism, Corporate Debt, Government Corruption, and the Constitution, Dave provides a one-stop-shop summary of everything relevant this year (and how it will affect next year and beyond).

There are a plethora of reasons underpinning the fact that manufacturing jobs are not coming back to the USA. Perhaps the simplest is purely economic. As McKinsey notes in a recent report, manufacturings' role in job creation shifts over time as manufacturing's share of output falls and as companies invest in technologies and process improvements that raise productivity. A critical finding is that as manufacturing's share of national output falls, so does its share of employment - following the inverted 'U' curve below. Manufacturing job losses in advanced economies have been concentrated in labor-intensive and highly tradable (read globalizable) industries such as apparel and electronics assembly. Thanks to the increased productivity and a 'high' credit-enabled standard-of-living, the US has simply priced itself out of the global manufacturing business (and so is China as its GDP per capita rises). Unless Americans are willing to put the twinkie (and iPad) down, those jobs will continue to bleed overseas (to India based on the chart below) building the ever-more self-fulfilling vicious circle of a nation dependent on state-aid to survive as only the 'unlucky' few remain employed.

Manufacturing industries have helped drive economic growth and rising living standards for nearly three centuries, and for some developing economies (as McKinsey notes in a recent report) continues to do so. Things are changing, however, as manufacturing output (as measured by gross value added) grew by 2.7% annually in advanced economies and 7.4% in large developing economies (from 2000 up until 2007); the leaders are changing rapidly China, India and Russia rise and Germany, Japan, UK, and Canada are sliding. The following chart simplifies the evolution of global manufacturing economies over the last four decades.