• Steve H. Hanke
    02/11/2016 - 16:08
    The burgeoning literature contains a great deal of hype, which validates the 95% Rule: 95% of what is written about economics and finance is either wrong or irrelevant.

India

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Fourth Turning - Politicians Driving The World Towards War





Americans today are blissfully distracted by their iGadgets, plotting out their holiday shopping strategies, leasing new cars, eating out, and buying advance tickets to the new Star Wars movie. They don’t see the wicked winter squalls ahead which will try their souls. We are experiencing the lull before the storms, but the storms are surely coming. The potential for catastrophe is high and burying our heads in the sand is not a strategy.

 
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Guest Post: A Hybrid War To Break The Balkans?





The successful completion of the Balkan Silk Road would lead to a significant sum of European trade being profitably redirected towards China and other booming non-Western locations like India and Ethiopia. The US fears losing its position as the EU’s top trading partner, knowing that the slippery strategic slope that could soon follow might lead to the rapid unraveling of its hegemonic control. The inevitable New Cold War clash that this represents and the extraordinarily high stakes that are involved mean that the Balkans will remain one of the main flashpoints in this dangerous proxy struggle, despite the hierarchical switch of its multipolar protagonists.

 
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Will Low Oil Prices Increase Internal Instability In Conflict Countries?





With over 1.6 million internally displaced in South Sudan, and another 600,000 refugees in neighboring countries, are oil price declines exacerbating humanitarian crises in oil-producing African countries, and can we expect further deterioration as a result of the recent price depression?

 
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Frontrunning: November 27





  • Russia Takes Aim at Turkish Economy Amid Fighter-Jet Spat (WSJ)
  • ‘Commercial scale’ oil smuggling into Turkey becomes priority target of anti-ISIS strikes (RT)
  • Russia-Turkey Ties Are Headed Into a Deep Freeze (WSJ)
  • France signals softer stance on Assad after Russia talks (FT)
  • China Calm Shattered as Brokerage Probe Sparks Selloff in Stocks (BBG)
  • China Stock Bulls Hit Breaking Point as State Dials Back Support (BBG)
  • China's Bond Stresses Mount as Two More Companies Flag Concerns (BBG)
 
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"Your Debt Bubble Is Here" - The Updated Leverage Cycle Map





Wondering where the world's economies are in the leverage cycle? Well, wonder no more. SocGen is out with its updated "leverage clock" which shows you where the bank thinks everyone falls in terms of ticking debt time bombs. As you'll see, SocGen's assessment is quite generous...

 
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Why "Supply & Demand" Doesn't Work For Oil





The traditional view of the impact of low oil prices seems to be, "It is just another cycle." Or, "The cure for low prices is low prices." We are doubtful that either of these views is right.

 
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It's "Red Or Black" For Those Still Foolish Enough To Play





There’s an old adage among veteran stock traders that goes something like his, “If I told you the news before it were made public – it’s still a 50/50 bet you would guess the market’s reaction correctly.” That was when the markets had some resemblance of normalcy. Today, normalcy has been replaced with sheer lunacy as to the speculation and interpretations for where these markets go from here.

 
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Largest Immigration Wave In Modern History Ends: More Mexicans Are Leaving The US Than Entering





The 'Great Recession' was evidently so bad for the economy that it stopped the net influx of illegal immigrants from Mexico. For the first time since the 1940s, more Mexicans have been leaving the U.S. to return home than arriving, a reversal that brings down the curtain on the largest immigration wave in modern American history. As WSJ reports, the Pew Research Center figures released Thursday suggest that the surge in legal and illegal Mexican immigration that helped transform America - and remains a contentious issue on the presidential campaign trail - may have peaked for good.

 
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Europe Cracks Down On Bitcoin, Virtual Currencies To "Curb Terrorism Funding"





European Union countries are preparing to crackdown on virtual currencies such as bitcoin, and anonymous payments made online and via pre-paid cards "in a bid to tackle terrorism financing after the Paris attacks, acording to a draft document."

 
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The Party Is Over: Goldman Sees "Limited Equity Upside" As "Bernanke Put" Is Replaced With "Yellen Call"





"We see a risk that the ‘Bernanke put’ will gradually be replaced by the ‘Yellen call’. The ‘Bernanke put’ captured the intuition that when the risks to growth, monetary policy reacts aggressively to bad news. Now that these risks have receded, we expect the Fed will shift to an easing bias, implying that monetary policy will likely begin to react more aggressively to good news... Rallies in risk sentiment may be met by less accommodative monetary policy – the ‘Yellen call’.

 
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The Fate Of Goldman's Global Growth Forecast Is In The Hands Of Just Three Countries





In 2016 just three countries will grow above Goldman's blended global average growth rate of 3.6%: India, China and Indonesia.

 
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Indians Refuse To Give Their Gold To The Government: Only 30 Kilograms Take Part In "Gold Monetization Scheme"





One week after the gold scheme's official launch, we take a look at how has it has done so far. In one word, so far the "gold monetization" plan has been a disaster with a laughable 30 kilograms in gold tendered by the people from physical into "government-backed" form.

 
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The 1% Is Rolling Over





Today’s financial world is a tough place for the average person but paradise for rich guys. As easy money raises asset prices, the owners of those assets make effortless profits. Then they buy expensive toys and trophy properties. Hence the recent boom in fine art, high-end real estate, yachts and private jets. But like all financial trends, this one has a limit, and that limit is now in sight. The 1%, it seems, is rolling over...

 
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European Union Challenged From Right And Left, "Maybe Too Much To Endure"





The heinous ISIS attack in Paris is a game changer in Europe. In addition to the horrific amount of individual casualties, the attack has also threatened severe damage to the long term survivability of the European Union as a political entity. Based on the unpopularity and unfeasibility of immigration controls under the EU's Schengen Plan, the events have opened up the Union to renewed attacks from the right, just as its support from the left is crumbling as a result of opposition to EU-mandated fiscal austerity. This two-front onslaught may be too much for the Union to endure.
 
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