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Frontrunning: June 18





  • Greek radical leftist SYRIZA leader Tsipras says will not join coalition government (as expected)
  • Egypt Islamists claim presidency as army tightens grip (Reuters)
  • French Socialists vow reforms after big poll win (Reuters)
  • Greeks Back European Bailout (WSJ)
  • France, Socialists Win a Solid Majority (WSJ)
  • Denmark Warns over Pressure on Krone (FT)
  • Obama to press Putin on Syria at G20 amid skepticism (Reuters)... Putin to smile
  • China Home Prices Fall in Record No. of Cities (Bloomberg)
  • Europe Gets Emerging Market Crisis Ultimatum As G-20 Meet (Bloomberg)
  • Wolfgang Münchau – What Happens if Angela Merkel Does Get Her Way (FT)
 
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Gold Will Be Top Performer in 2012 - UBS Poll Of 8 Trillion USD Official Sector





More than 80 institutions with collective assets under management of over $8 trillion attended the event and were polled regarding macroeconomic matters and their outlook for various asset classes. Gold is seen as one of the assets likely to outperform again in 2012 due to risks posed to the euro and longer term risks for the dollar. Those polled by UBS were also positive on emerging market debt. Both asset classes, gold and emerging market debt, were the top pick of 22.5% of the assembly – thereby accounting for 45% of the votes. On gold’s role as a reserve asset, the importance reserve managers attach to the yellow metal has slipped back to 2009 levels, with about 14% having the opinion that it will be the most important reserve currency in 25 years. This marks a decline from the past two years’ surveys wherein over 20% viewed gold to be the most important reserve currency. 

 
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Frontrunning: June 13





  • How original: Syria prints new money as deficit grows (Reuters)- America is not Syria
  • Former SNB head Hildebrand to become BlackRock vice chairman (FT)
  • Osborne says Greece may have to quit euro (Reuters)
  • Osborne Risks the Wrath of Merkel (FT)
  • China second-quarter GDP growth may dip below 7 percent - government adviser (Reuters)
  • Italian Borrowing Costs Surge at Auction of 1-Year Bills (Bloomberg)
  • Greeks withdraw cash ahead of cliffhanger vote (Reuters)
  • Merkel’s Choice Pits European Fate Against German Voter Interest (Bloomberg)
  • Italy Tax Increases Backfire as Monti Tightens Belts (Bloomberg)
  • Dimon says JPMorgan failed to rein in traders (Reuters)
 
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Gold Deposits Of USD 1 Billion To Be Collected By Turkish Bank





Turkey remained the world's number one minter of gold coins in 2011. There is an increasing tendency for gold bars to be retail investors' vehicle of choice – although gold coins still retain a majority market share. Turkish people can pay in gold in certain foreign exchange houses and most jewellers will accept gold as payment. Turkish banks are is now offering digital gold saving accounts. Turkey expanded its gold reserves by 29.7 metric tons in April. Turkey’s bullion reserves climbed to 239.3 tons last month meaning that Turkey increased their gold reserves by 14% in April. The central bank on March 27 doubled the share of lira reserves banks can hold in gold to 20%, saying it would provide 6.1 billion liras ($3.3 billion) of extra liquidity. "This addition," the WGC says, "was the result of a policy change under which the central bank will now accept gold in reserve requirements from commercial banks to help the banks utilize their gold in managing their liquidity." Some analysts have suggested that the increase in Turkish gold reserves, as reported by the IMF, may actually be a form of “double accounting”. Whereby the gold held in Turkish banks client’s gold account is transferred from the local bank as a reserve to the central bank, from where it then figures as gold reserves.

 
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Frontrunning: June 12





  • J.P. Morgan Knew of Risks: Warning Flags Raised Two Years Ago About CIO (WSJ)
  • Cyprus Poised to Seek Bailout within Days (FT)
  • U.S. Exempts India, South Korea From Iran Oil Sanctions (Bloomberg) - so those countries who need Iran crude?
  • Barroso Pushes EU Banking Union (FT)
  • Hollande Set for Poll Victory (FT)
  • Fed Says U.S. Wealth Fell 38.8% in 2007-2010 on Housing (Bloomberg)
  • Fed Officials Amplify Concerns over Europe (Reuters)
  • Fed's Lockhart Says Lower Yields Bolster Case for No New Action (Bloomberg)
 
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Key Events In The Coming Week





The past week was dominated by the Eurogroup statement over the weekend that Spain will seek financial support for its banks. According to the statement, Spain intends to make a formal request soon, with financial assistance expected to be around EUR100 bn and to come from the EFSF or ESM. Aid will be channeled through the FROB, and will increase the debt burden of the Spanish sovereign. There will be no macro or fiscal conditionality as in the bailouts of Greece, Ireland and Portugal, but only on bank sector restructuring. That said, there will be monitoring of the deficit and structural reforms as part of this bailout, though no conditionality, and the IMF is also invited to monitor progress under the program. Separately, the week also saw lots of commentary out of the Fed, including from Chairman Bernanke and Vice Chair Yellen. Looking to the week ahead, the key question for us is where to harvest excessive risk premia, bearing in mind that the Greek elections are around the corner.. In terms of policy talk and data, for the former Fed chatter ends on Tuesday when the blackout period begins ahead of the FOMC on June 19/20. For the latter, US retail sales and industrial production will be important to watch as we head into the FOMC next week.

 
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Guest Post: It Only Took A Global Depression To Reduce Gas Prices By 40 Cents





You can’t watch the mainstream media propaganda channels for more than ten minutes without a talking head breathlessly announcing that gas prices have dropped for the 24th day in a row and are now back to $3.55 a gallon. Wall Street oil analysts, who are paid hundreds of thousands of dollars per year to tell us why prices rose or fell after the fact, are paraded on CNBC to proclaim the huge consumer windfall from the drop in price. This is just another episode of a never ending reality show, designed to keep the average American sedated so they’ll continue to spend money they don’t have buying crap they don’t need. The brainless twits that pass for journalists in the corporate mainstream media never give the viewer or reader any historical context to judge the true impact of the price increase or decrease. The government agencies promoting the storyline of those in power extrapolate the current trend and ignore the basic facts of supply, demand, price and peak oil. The EIA is now predicting further drops in prices. Two months ago they predicted steadily rising prices through the summer. What would we do without these government drones guiding us?

 

 
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Iran Gold Imports Surge - 1.2 Billion USD Of Precious Metals From Turkey in April Alone





Global gold demand continues to surprise to the upside – especially sizeable demand from the Middle East and China. Confirmation of continuing huge demand in China came yesterday with data showing that Hong Kong shipped 101,768 kilograms of gold to mainland China in April, up 62% on the month - marking the second-highest monthly exports ever.  While demand from India continues it has fallen from the record levels recently but demand from other Asian countries is robust with reports of demand in Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia. A new and potentially significant source of demand is that of demand from Iran. Iran imported a massive $1.2 billion worth of precious metals from Turkey in April alone. Turkish exports of gold, precious metals, pearls and coins to Iran rose to $1.2 billion in April from a tiny $7,500 a year earlier, according to figures released by the state statistics institute in Ankara yesterday. This is a massive increase in demand and suggests that there may be official involvement in the imports from the Central Bank of Iran.

 
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