India

In its just released 215 page 10-Q, BofA announced it has just overtaken Goldman, and where even Goldman ended up having days with trading losses, Bank of America was perfect. Gotta love all those 3rd grade BofA prop traders (as an FYI to all, BofA is where you go where the safety school equivalent of prop trading dumps you). What is more interesting is that the seemingly flawless trading machine which is BofA has just disclosed it has received a complains by the Chicago FHLB, Cambridge Place, and Charles Schwab (and others) that allege misrepresentations in over $375 billion worth of RMBS. It appears the FRBNY is not the only entity that now is gunning for the scalp of the last remaining flawless frontrunner.

Michael Sabia, President and CEO of the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, Canada's biggest pension fund, was the guest speaker at the the Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montreal's Desjardins business luncheon - Business Voices. He talked about the many facets of the Caisse's contribution to the economic development of Quebec, mainly in the context of a changing world, which both the Caisse and Quebec need to adapt to in order to achieve their full potential.

In a word - skeptical: "There is a growing hope that the Tea Party has tapped a raw nerve and will serve as a lightning rod for change. And change is needed in a really big way when one considers the financial strains that mandatory entitlements, such as Social Security, will pose as the demographics, in terms of an ever-higher dependency ratio, ascends further. These mounting “locked in” fiscal costs have to be addressed as do the $3.5 trillion of actuarially unfunded state/local government pension plans. Social contracts will have to be re-written — perhaps with implications for contracts with bondholders. But hope is never a good strategy. Results are what matter. It took two full years for the Reagan rally to really take hold. An economy growing at a 7% clip in the aftermath of the 1980-82 malaise and an unemployment rate that came crashing down more 300 basis points from the highs certainly helped. So, while there is hope that the stage is being set for meaningful political change in 2012 (where the Republicans stand a very good chance of reclaiming BOTH the House and the Senate) the near-term outlook is muddled. Investors should not lose sight of the fact that the recovery is so listless that we are only one negative shock away from tilting the economy back into contraction mode." David Rosenberg

The subcontinent is poised to overtake China’s white hot growth rate. India will grow by 8.5% this year. Growth could exceed that in the Middle Kingdom as early as 2013. Financing and construction of huge transportation, power generation, water, and pollution control projects are underway. India is also a huge winner on the demographic front, with one of the lowest ratios of social service demanding retirees in the world. Many hedge funds believe that India will be the top growing major emerging market for the next 25 years. (INP), (FXI).

The market rallied today as election booths underflowed with discontented voters, unemployed workers looking for a warm place to hang out during the day, and douchey hipsters who thought the lines were for the Apple store.

As I peer through the fog and attempt to see visions of things to be, I see nothing but pain ahead. Anyone who can look at the following chart and not conclude that there is much pain ahead for this country is either a Goldman Sachs banker, a Federal Reserve Governor, or a bought off politician in Washington DC. It is no coincidence that after Richard Nixon closed the gold window in 1971 and allowed the Federal Reserve to “manage” our economy that total debt outstanding in the US surged from $2 trillion to over $50 trillion. GDP has risen by 1,300% since 1971, while total US debt has risen by 2,600%. Now for the kicker. Real GDP has only gone up by 292% since 1971. This means that 1,000% of the increase in GDP was from Federal Reserve created inflation. Over this same time frame, real wages have declined by 6%, from $318 per week in 1971 to $299 per week today. Inflation has been the American drug of choice to commit suicide over the last 40 years. It is stealthy, seemingly painless, and deadly. Inflation is the “painless” method through which the Federal Reserve has decided this country will commit suicide.

• Democracy’s Rich Pageant (The Awl)
• Democratic power at risk (Reuters)
  • Obama may face "Goldilocks" voters
  • California's high-stakes elections go down to wire
  • Obama seeks to blunt Republican attack over comment
  • Obama says troubled by comments of top Republicans
• US Federal Reserve's latest bubble threatens mayhem: The prospect of more quantitative easing (QE) is driving government bond yields to levels that price in a depression (Telegraph)
• Fed easing may mean 20 percent dollar drop: Gross (Reuters)
• US Shifts G20 Currency Focus To Trade Deficits (FT)
• Robert Rubin dares to show his face with an FT oped: How America can withstand the headwinds (FT) - here's how, go back in time, and make sure Robert Rubin was never in position of power. Does that work?
• Lessons From a Lost Decade (Hussman)
• China's Hu Jintao Says Country's Yuan Policy Is Responsible, Figaro Says (Bloomberg)

Someone has to lose but, in this case, the loser is the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States of America – which plays the part of the perennial sucker as they are willing to sit down at the table and be taken for all they have two or three days a week. And why are they willing to be so generous? BECAUSE IT’S NOT THEIR MONEY!

Overall, whether or not the FOMC outcome is seen as dovish enough relative to market expectations will dictate the immediate price action. But if global cyclical indicators show further signs of global decoupling, the backdrop of Fed easing plus the expected political buy-in for burden sharing in adjusting global imbalances means the underlying dominant macro theme that will persist after the dust settles is likely one of broad USD weakness still.

Democrats--"sadly enough"--would get a shot at still retaining the majority, which would mean the monetary and fiscal policy will most likely stay on its current course. Meanwhile, the 0.25% interest rate hike effective Oct. 20 by the PBoC is "meaningless," because of skyrocketing property prices, and the cost of living inflation has gone up much more than the official figure.

Rough rice has skyrocketed by 50% since July, to $14.50 a hundred pounds. Rice is the primary food stuff for 3 billion of the world’s 7 billion population. Many of the disaster scenarios for the global food supply revolve around Asia. Crisis shortages will hit the rice markets there first, then spill over to other foodstuffs here. (CORN), (WHEAT), (SOYBEANS), (AGU), (POT), (MOS).

"Don't let the rally in the stock and bond markets fool you. Many Americans are still hurtling towards a retirement disaster. Few realize it. Even many of those running the big pension funds don't know." If you want to know why hope is not a strategy, read this comment carefully.

Nothing too surprising in the WGC's Q3 Gold update report: "The gold price continued its upward trend during Q3 2010, ending the quarter at US$1,307.00/oz, on the London PM fi x, 5.1% higher quarter-on-quarter. Gold’s average volatility of 13.2% in Q3 was not only lower than previous quarters but remained below that of equity and commodity indices. Concerns over the health of economic growth in the developed world, quantitative easing, continued purchases from central banks in emerging markets, healthy jewellery consumption in regions like China and usage in technological applications have all ensured that gold remains a sought after asset...The WGC expects demand to pick-up further in Q4 on the back of the main festive season. In China and Hong Kong, the gold market appears to have maintained its strong momentum, suggesting continued positive growth during Q3 2010 relative to year-earlier levels. Sales by European central banks remained negligible while their counterparts in emerging markets continued to increase their gold reserves.." Nothing but bullishness here.

The inaugural Chris Martenson "Straight Talk" contributor is Mike Shedlock, author of Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis, one of the most visited and respected economic blogs on the Web. Mish is an outspoken deflationist and outlines his rationale for being so in his answers to our questions. He is also a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management.

Sovereign wealth funds are a force to be reckoned with. Some like Singapore's GIC have started to selectively take on more risk while others, loading up on domestic debt, are in for a nasty surprise...