India

European Stocks, US Futures Surge On Last Minute Hopes Of "Extraordinary Policy Easing" By Mario Draghi

Yesterday's market swoon which unwound all of Tuesday's gains on concerns about a hawkish Fed and fears about terrorism in the US, are now completely forgotten, and have been replaced with the latest daily round of pre-ECB euphoria, driven by hopes that Mario Draghi will announce even more dovish details to Europe's Q€ 2 than just a 10 bps rate cut and a boost to QE more than €10 billion, both of which have been already priced in.

Visualizing The Greatest Economic Collapses In History

The very first major economic collapse in recorded history occurred in 218-202 BC when the Roman Empire experienced money troubles after the Second Punic War. As a result, bronze and silver currencies were devalued. As HowMuch.net depicts in the video below economic collapses date back thousands of years. While many countries today still feel the effects of the most recent Global Financial Crisis, it is important to note that economic troubles are not unique to the present-day, but rather date back to some of the oldest civilizations.

The Emerging Market Growth Model Is "Broken"; RIP EM

"Emerging economies’ growth prospects look damaged in several respects. The central fact facing EM is the negative external shock that results from weak global trade growth and the collapse of Chinese import growth. This brings to an irreversible end the period of rapid, investment-led Chinese growth and strong global trade growth which had supplied EM with a once-in-a-generation positive external shock during the years between 2002 and 2013."

Murder And Mayhem In The Middle East (Why It Matters To Those Living In The West)

While the populations of Europe and the US are fed raw propaganda about the regional aims involved, the reality is far different. While we might be tempted to sit in our Western environs, secure in the idea that at least we aren’t ‘over there’ where all the bad things are happening, it would be a mistake to think that this turmoil will not impact you.

Global Stocks Start Off December With A Bang, US Equity Futures Rebound; Yuan Drops

There was something for everyone in last night's much anticipated Chinese PMI data, with the official number sliding to the lowest in over 3 years, suggesting the PBOC will need to do more stimulus and is thus bullish, while the unoffocial Caixin print rising to the highest since June, suggesting whatever the PBOC is doing is working, and is also bullish. Not unexpectedly, global stocks decided to take the bullish way out, and have risen across the globe led by Asia, where stocks rose as much as 1.8%, Europe also green and US equity futures up 10 points as of this writing.

Fourth Turning - Politicians Driving The World Towards War

Americans today are blissfully distracted by their iGadgets, plotting out their holiday shopping strategies, leasing new cars, eating out, and buying advance tickets to the new Star Wars movie. They don’t see the wicked winter squalls ahead which will try their souls. We are experiencing the lull before the storms, but the storms are surely coming. The potential for catastrophe is high and burying our heads in the sand is not a strategy.

Guest Post: A Hybrid War To Break The Balkans?

The successful completion of the Balkan Silk Road would lead to a significant sum of European trade being profitably redirected towards China and other booming non-Western locations like India and Ethiopia. The US fears losing its position as the EU’s top trading partner, knowing that the slippery strategic slope that could soon follow might lead to the rapid unraveling of its hegemonic control. The inevitable New Cold War clash that this represents and the extraordinarily high stakes that are involved mean that the Balkans will remain one of the main flashpoints in this dangerous proxy struggle, despite the hierarchical switch of its multipolar protagonists.

Frontrunning: November 27

  • Russia Takes Aim at Turkish Economy Amid Fighter-Jet Spat (WSJ)
  • ‘Commercial scale’ oil smuggling into Turkey becomes priority target of anti-ISIS strikes (RT)
  • Russia-Turkey Ties Are Headed Into a Deep Freeze (WSJ)
  • France signals softer stance on Assad after Russia talks (FT)
  • China Calm Shattered as Brokerage Probe Sparks Selloff in Stocks (BBG)
  • China Stock Bulls Hit Breaking Point as State Dials Back Support (BBG)
  • China's Bond Stresses Mount as Two More Companies Flag Concerns (BBG)

"Your Debt Bubble Is Here" - The Updated Leverage Cycle Map

Wondering where the world's economies are in the leverage cycle? Well, wonder no more. SocGen is out with its updated "leverage clock" which shows you where the bank thinks everyone falls in terms of ticking debt time bombs. As you'll see, SocGen's assessment is quite generous...

Why "Supply & Demand" Doesn't Work For Oil

The traditional view of the impact of low oil prices seems to be, "It is just another cycle." Or, "The cure for low prices is low prices." We are doubtful that either of these views is right.