India

"The conditions in the economies of the rest of the world have undoubtedly proved weaker compared with a few months ago, in particular in the emerging economies. Global growth forecasts have been revised downwards. This slowdown is probably not temporary."

On January 6, 2004, Senator Charles Schumer and I challenged the erroneous idea that jobs offshoring was free trade in a New York Times op-ed. Our article so astounded economists that within a few days Schumer and I were summoned to a Brookings Institution conference in Washington, DC, to explain our heresy. In the nationally televised conference, I declared that the consequence of jobs offshoring would be that the US would be a Third World country in 20 years. That was 11 years ago, and the US is on course to descend to Third World status before the remaining 9 years of my prediction have expired. The evidence is everywhere.

Gold is up 3.1% in October and had even larger gains in other currencies. Entering gold’s “seasonal sweet spot” in November, December, January and February.

According to the Guardian, the US trade representative, Michael Froman, in the first public comments from a senior US official on the matter, said that "the United States is not keen on pursuing a separate free trade deal with Britain if it leaves the European Union."

As An American, I'm FURIOUS that We've Squandered Our Strengths and Resources ...

Gold will also be vulnerable towards the end of an interest rate tightening cycle as was the case in January 1980. Today, central banks including the Fed  are having difficulty raising interest rates in even a small nominal way.

On the heels of the nuclear deal and Tehran's ground operation in Syria, Iran is stepping up efforts to prove that contrary to Western rhetoric, it is not in fact "isolated." According to the country's economy minister, Iran is now set to join the BRICS bank and step up its cooperation with Brazil. This is symptomatic of Washington's waning ability to exert American influence on global affairs both political and economic.

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While we still await the Indian government to unveil the "threats and fines" part, it started the "urging" when during an address on his monthly radio programme of "Mann Ki Baat", Indian prime minister Modi "exhorted people to help convert gold to the nation's economic strength by joining in various schemes to be launched soon" adding that "gold can be converted from dead money to an economic force. To leave gold lying as dead money is behaviour not in sync with the modern times," he said.

• European shares slip as easing expectations fade (Reuters)
• Valeant and Pharmacy More Intertwined Than Thought (WSJ)
• The Pawn Isolated: Valeant, Philidor and the Annals of Fraud (WSJ)
• Strongest Afghan Quake Since 1949 Triggers Search for Survivors (BBG)
• EU Agrees To Tighten Border Controls And Slow Migrant Arrival (AP)
• Volkswagen Suspends More Employees (WSJ)
• Volkswagen Loses Global Sales Lead to Toyota Amid Diesel Scandal (BBG)

To be king implies preeminence, or lasting rule. In the Arctic, such oil and gas supremacy is still little more than a dream. That dream remains alive in Russia however, and the nation – through an unmatched stubbornness and a decidedly timid field of competitors – is making a strong bid for the throne.

September was officially the warmest ever recorded around the globe (the 7th time this year a month has set a record) as El nino is back in a big way. As Bloomberg reports, its effects are just beginning in much of the world -- for the most part, it hasn’t really reached North America -- and yet it’s already shaping up potentially as one of the three strongest El Nino patterns since record-keeping began in 1950.  Expect "major disruptions, widespread droughts and floods," warned a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, adding that without preparation, "all kinds of mayhem will let loose." The last time there was an El Nino of similar magnitude to the current one, the record-setting event of 1997-1998, floods, fires, droughts and other calamities killed at least 30,000 people and caused $100 billion in damage.

"Real investors" are simultaneously nervous and hopeful, confident yet resigned. Yes, their basic belief in equities as an investment class is sound and supported by the last five years of good performance. At the same time, they understand the nuances of the bear case extremely well and are prepared for a long slog of lower returns.

The geopolitical and financial risks facing the global economy are well-known. Hot wars and currency meltdowns garner headlines around the world. But few even hear, much less discuss, four ticking global time-bombs