The Treasury just sold $21 billion in a 10 Year reopening (9 year 10 months), at a high yield of 3.494%, just below last month's 3.499%. Overall the auction turned out weak pricing outside of the when issued, confirming that the butterfly-ES correlation (which is primarily driven by the 10 Year) is working. And just as the market dipped into the auction the natural response would be a pick up following the placement. The internals were weak: Primary Dealers were forced to take down more than half (51.7%) of the auction (with every intention to flip to the Fed in a week or so), the highest Primary Dealer takedown since February 2010. In return, Indirect Bidder interest slumped to 42.4%, the weakest showing since October of last year, and the balance, or 5.9% was filled by Directs. The low Bid To Cover completed the weak picture, coming at 3.13, the lowest since December, but in line with a one year average. More importantly, with this $21 billion and yesterday's $32 billion, US debt is now $53 billion higher than the unsettled total disclosed yesterday of $14.268, or $14.321. This is far above the debt limit. It also means that the debt actually subject to the limit is now $14.269 billion, or $25 billion below the ceiling.
And keep in mind there is another $13 billion in 30 Years to be
auctioned off tomorrow (granted offset by $19.2) billion in maturities.
Will the Treasury last through July without a debt ceiling increase at a
rate of issuing $125 billion in net debt per month? Not a chance in