Institutional Investors

Back in February, we noted that NIRP had officially arrived in the US as JP Morgan announced it was preparing to charge some large institutional customers for deposits. This represented a kind of de facto (if not yet de jure) NIRP. Now, a combination of pinched margins and new regulations has led some of the largest financial institutions in the US to penalize corporate and institutional deposits on the way to instituting what amounts to a stealth version of negative interest rates.

Since we first exposed (and explained) the Black-sh Swan-link nature of the options market's Skew Index, the mainstream media has lept to various conclusions (from ignore it, like everything else, to 'wow'). However, what is crucial to comprehend is that the soaring Skew is occurring at the same time as a collapsing VIX. However, what we have seen over the last two days is somewhat unprecedented - VIX has continued to collapse into option expiration (and we know the pattern that occurs after opex) as SKEW has soared to new all-time record highs.

Audio - There were some very interesting insights and we believe high net worth and institutional investors and indeed all listeners will get useful information with which to protect and grow their wealth.

You’re doing yourself a disservice if you don't have a basic working knowledge of what, say, a volatility surface means. We're not saying that we all have to become volatility traders to survive in the market jungle today, any more than we all have to become game theorists to avoid being the sucker at the Fed’s communication policy table. And if you want to remove yourself as much as possible from the machines, then find a niche in the public markets where dark strategies have little sway. Muni bonds, say, or MLPs. The machines will find you eventually, but for now you’re safe. But if you’re a traditional investor whose sandbox includes big markets like the S&P 500, then you’re only disadvantaging yourself by ignoring this stuff. Ignorance is not bliss...

The “smart money” and by that we mean the more informed, aware and prudent investors and institutions internationally continue to have an allocation to gold and or add to existing allocations. The less informed continue to not understand or disparage gold and focus almost solely on gold’s short term price action rather than gold’s long term attributes as a hedging instrument and a safe haven asset.

With VIX collapsing 10 days straight (for the first time since October 2010), one might be forgiven for thinking "everything is awesome." However, as always, the real news is in the nuance that the mainstream often misses. As VIX has plunged (complacency about 'normal' risk), Skew (which measures extreme tail risk) has exploded to its highest ever...

• Playboy to Drop Nudity as Internet Fills Demand (NYT)
• Stock futures fall on weak China trade data (Reuters)
• Any Hall is down 20% YTD (WSJ)
• Global Stocks Slide With Metals After Chinese Imports Tumble (BBG)
• Clinton's tack to the left to be on display in Democratic debate (Reuters)
• Switzerland Said to Impose 5% Leverage Ratio on Big Banks (BBG)
• AB InBev, SABMiller brew up $100 billion deal (Reuters)

This is the story of a veteran NYSE specialist who noticed manipulation in the NYSE market open Imbalance, loudly complained to the NYSE, was ignored, then decided to profit from said manipulation himself... and got busted.  And that's where the story begins...

Hedge fund manager exposes the ugly truth about America's energy revolution: it's like the housing bubble but larger!

Courtesy of JPM we find something curious: it is no longer the Fed, nor its capital markets proxy, Citadel, nor even the banks or hedge funds that are the primary sellers of volatility. It is retail investors themselves!

Today's most popular hedge fund strategy among institutional investors globally is "Alternative Global Macro Funds". Also known as a “go anywhere” investment style, active managers employ opportunistic trading tactics across asset classes, financial instruments, and geographic regions. Like many liquid alts, global macro funds grew rapidly following the financial crisis as investors looked for strategies that could diversify their portfolios in the midst of volatility in the global marketplace and historically high sector correlations against the S&P 500, thereby improving their risk-return profiles. Ultimately, success in this classification resides in selecting the right active manager given the strategy’s wide dispersion of returns.

Newly-upgraded Portugal unleashed a budget bombsell on Wednesday when it revised its 2014 deficit higher by some 60% after a failure to liquidate the predecessor to bailed out Banco Espirito Santo left taxpayers holding a €5 billion bag. 

• Pressure builds on Volkswagen CEO as emissions-cheating probe spreads (Reuters)
• Volkswagen Emissions Scandal Relates to 11 Million Cars (WSJ)
• Volkswagen Emissions Investigations Should Widen to Entire Auto Industry, Officials Say (WSJ)
• Germany's Bosch makes VW's U.S. diesel components (Reuters)
• Volkswagen scandal will have personnel consequences - state economy minister (Reuters)
• Glencore Falls to Record as Mining Shares Lead Stock Losses (BBG)
• Despite Slump, China’s Xi Jinping Pledges Economic Reforms (WSJ)

The incredibly strong demand for physical precious metals around the world continues to be obscured by institutional selling of futures contracts on the COMEX. The paper or electronic market continues to dominate the spot price for now. But rising premiums and delays for popular bullion products suggests that proper price discovery reflecting real world supply and demand may be at hand.

The first is that by keeping rates lower for even longer, the EM imbalances the Fed is worrying about will grow even larger, making it harder to exit stimulus; The second is a question on the value of forward guidance, after the Fed has repeatedly called for a hike and then backed out; The third is that the Fed may have limited, or no ammunition to react to the next potential shock, and that financial booms and busts may grow even larger over time.