Institutional Investors

If one wants to identify bubbles, one must perforce study monetary conditions. The comparison of historical data on valuations and other ancillary factors can only take one so far. The problem is that in times of strongly inflationary policy, the economy's price structure becomes thoroughly distorted, and that therefore a great many “data” can no longer be regarded as reliable... Most of the time, it's the eventual slowdown of money supply growth that brings a bubble to its knees.

Let's take a look at the amount of settlements/fines from various banks and financial institutions around the world since the crisis.

File this one for the bizarro files. After Barclays was caught lying to its "sophisticated" clients about how it handles their order following the lawsuit by NY AG Schneiderman, the bank, having suffered an epic 75% collapse of trading volume in its dark pool, has decided to fight back and earlier today filed a motion to dismiss the dark pool complaint against it. Its main argument, as reported by the WSJ, is that the attorney general's complaint "fails to identify any fraud, establishing no material misstatements, no identified victims and no actual harm." In other words, Barclays alleges the dark pool participants were smart enough to figure out Barclays was lying to them when it promised their order flow wouldn't be offered up to predatory algos.

• Here come the gates which we predicted in 2010: SEC Is Set to Approve Money-Fund Rules (WSJ)
• Dick's cuts 400 jobs as golf now less popular (MW)
• Kerry arrives in Israel, pushes for peace (Reuters)
• Pay Penalty Haunts Recession Grads as U.S. Economy Mends (BBG)
• Appeals Courts Issue Conflicting Rulings on Health-Law Subsidies (WSJ)
• Rebel Stronghold Donetsk Holds Breath as Shellfire Mounts (BBG)
• Business executive wins Georgia Republican runoff in U.S. Senate race (Reuters)
• Five held in China food scandal probe, including head of Shanghai Husi Food (Reuters)
• Jobs Hold Sway Over Yellen-Carney as Central Banks Splinter (BBG)

Shortly after we highlighted the utter ridiculousness of the bubble frenzy in Dubai stocks (30x IPO oversubscription for a firm that did not exist), the Dubai General Financial Markets Index tumbled 30% popping an epic 250% rally since The Fed started QE3. It seems Saudi Arabia is getting nervous at its neighbor's fall and so The Kingdom has decided it needs more great fools to keep its dream alive... and as The WSJ reports today, Saudi Arabia plans to open its $530 billion stock market to foreigners for the first time early next year, a move that will allow the Middle East's biggest economy to attract more international investment and reduce its dependence on oil revenue. Did we just find another China inflation outlet?

Today we’re going to explain what the “final outcome” for this process will be. The short version is what happens to a cancer patient who allows the disease to spread unchecked (death).

With year-end target after year-end target having been met and raised by the oh-so-ethical sell-side strategists and asset-gatherers, it appears the Fed's grand plan of dragging every bit of cash into the increasingly more risky equity markets is working. After a rally driven more by financial engineering that real sustainable growth, Bloomberg reports, individual investors are plowing money back into the U.S. stock market just as professional strategists say gains for this year are over. As one senior equity manager warned, "if Wall Street, after poring over all known data, comes up with a target and we’re already there, and you still see individual investors buying and they’re typically the ones that are late to the party, it would seem there is limited upside," but that didn't stop about $100 billion being added to equity mutual funds and exchange-traded funds in the past year, 10 times more than the previous 12 months. We have found this cycle's greater fool and once again it is the retail investor.

• Espirito Santo Financial Suspends Shares, Bonds on ESI Exposure (BBG)
• Europe Stocks Drop for Fifth Day as Espirito Santo Sinks (BBG)
• Espirito Santo Creditors Doubt Containment on Missed Payment (BBG)
• French Stocks Seen Extending Losses on Economy Concern (BBG)
• Stocks Slide With Portugal Bonds as Yen Gains; Oil Drops (BBG)
• U.S. Probes Hacking of Government Computers at Personnel Agency (WSJ)... finds terabytes of porn 
• It's Congress' fault: Obama rejects criticism over border crisis (Reuters)
• Israel Mobilizes 20,000 Troops for Possible Gaza Invasion (BBG)
• Chinese hackers pursue key data on U.S. workers (NYT)
• Donetsk Primed for Siege as Ukraine Army Hems In Rebels (BBG)

Curious what Uber is spending the record $1.2 billion in cash it raised in its most recent funding round (which valued it at a whopping $18.2 billion)? The answer: subsidies. In a page right out of Amazon's playbook, the management of Uber has found that the best use of proceeds now that it may have finally saturated addressable markets, is to use its cash on hand to fund sub-equilibrium pricing losses and in the process, hopefully, put its competition out of business. Earlier today, the Uber blog announced that UberX is "now cheaper than a New York City taxi."

It wasn’t an edgy blogger but the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency that issued the warning.

• Minorities Seen Driving U.S. Household Growth (Reuters)
• GM prepares to recall some Cruze sedans with Takata air bags (Reuters)
• PBOC Halts Repos as China Money Rate Climbs to Seven-Week High (BBG)
• Ukraine Optimism Wavers on Peace as Cease-Fire Winds Down (BBG)
• Economic Rebound Seen Undercut by Weak Pay as Vote Winner (BBG)
• Cracks Open in Dark Pool Defense With Barclays Lawsuit (BBG)
• The Survivor: How Eric Holder outlasted his (many) critics (Politico)
• IBM, Lenovo Tackle Security Worries on Server Deal (WSJ)
• Militants take Iraqi gas field town, president calls parliament session (Reuters)
• Carney Surprises Confounding Markets as BOE Manages Guidance (BBG)

First it was gold, now it is HFT - poor Barclays just can't get away with any market rigging crime these days: "In sum, Barclays’ courting of high frequency traders, and its willingness to falsify the extent of high frequency trading activity in its dark pool, was contrary to Barclays’ representations to clients that Barclays operated with “transparency” and provided a safe venue in which to trade. As described by one former senior Barclays Director:  “there was a lot going on in the dark pool that was not in the best interests of clients. The practice of almost ensuring that every counterparty would be a high frequency firm, it seems to me that that wouldn’t be in the best interest of their clients . . . It’s almost like they are building a car and saying it has an airbag and there is no airbag or brakes.”

Well, at least someone gets it. While just about every other central bank on the planet is giving everyone two thumbs up on the economy, the deputy chair of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (Lim Hng Kiang) said last night at a dinner that “an uneasy calm seems to have settled in markets” and that “we remain in uncharted waters.” It was quite surprising to see such pointed language from a central banking official. Mr. Lim jabbed at the “obvious” risks and said there would be “bumps on the road” ahead.

With the market firmly under the control of the Fed, VIX plunging and the S&P at all time highs is the a different indicator to look at for "fear"? For one possible answer we refer to the latest note by FBN's JC O'Hara who looks at a different "fear" index, namely the Credit Suisse Fear Barometer. He finds that, at 37%, it has never been higher.

With a nod to the absurd, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen freely admitted earlier this week that the Fed really has no idea what’s going to happen to the economy.