International Energy Agency

Busting Media Myths On Peak Oil

Depending upon whom you speak with, peak oil is either a catastrophe waiting to happen or a far-off concern that has already been solved or will be soon. Frequently, peak oil is referred to as a myth. What you rarely hear is that peak oil is an empirical fact having already occurred in dozens of countries.

Saudi Strategy Working: OPEC Captures Largest Market Share Since 1975

OPEC has captured its largest share of the oil market since 1975, which could be seen as a vindication of the cartel’s strategy over the past two years. But it also creates vulnerabilities for the U.S. and others, who are once again increasingly dependent on the Middle East for oil.

Frontrunning: June 27

  • After ‘Brexit’ Vote, Europe’s Leaders Debate Timing of U.K.’s Departure (WSJ)
  • Pound Slumps, Banks Tumble on Brexit Fallout; Bonds Extend Gains (BBG)
  • To Brexit or Regrexit? A dis-United Kingdom ponders turmoil of EU divorce (Reuters)
  • ‘Brexit’ Sparks Political Turmoil Across U.K. (WSJ)
  • 10 ways to leave EU lover; scenarios for Brexit (Reuters)
  • The $100 Trillion Bond Market’s Got Bigger Concerns Than Brexit (BBG)

Soaring Brexit Fears Spark Global Flight To Safety, Send 10 Year Bunds Tumbling Below 0%

The UK EU referendum is suddenly totally dominant in financial markets. The increased focus comes as the leave campaign has gathered steam as 4 polls yesterday afternoon/evening put the 'leave' campaign ahead. As a result of the continued global scramble for safety, German 10Y bunds finally dropped below 0% for the first time ever, while global risk assets are red around the globe.

Does Iran Have The Upper Hand In OPEC Oil War

The fight between the two for supremacy in the Middle East region is unlikely to end anytime soon. Currently, supply outages to the tune of 3.5 million b/d are supporting the oil prices by creating a balance between demand and supply. Once Nigeria, Libya, and Canada resume pumping at their normal levels, the effects of the struggle between Iran and Saudi Arabia will be felt. If both increase production, the world will be awash with oil, pulling prices back to the mid $30/barrel levels.

Futures Levitation Continues As Brent Rises Above $50 For First Time Since November

In what has been another quiet overnight session, which unlike the past two days has not seen steep, illiquid gaps higher in US equity futures (the E-mini was up 3 points and accelerating to the upside as of this writing so there is still ample time for the momentum algos to go berserk), the main event was the price of Brent rising above $50 for the first time since November with WTI rising as high as $49.97.

De-Petrodollar-ization Esclates - China Imports Record Amount Of Russian Oil In April

We have reported for years that Russia and China have been doing everything they can to displace the use (and influence) of the US dollar. Of course, as the US has been playing geopolitical games, China and Russia have been working on strengthening their relationship with one another. At the end of 2015, China had become Russia's biggest oil customer, and as of April, Russian oil shipments to China hit a record high. Russia has also surpassed Saudi Arabia as the biggest crude exporter to China.

France Hit By Gas Shortages, Rationing After Refinery Workers Go On Strike

In the aftermath of the French labor law reform, local refinery workers have launched a strike to hit the government where it hurts the most. Protesters have blocked deliveries to gas stations from at least half of France's eight refineries, and workers at three Total refineries have voted to halt all output by Tuesday. The effect was immediate: as an IEA analyst observed, "there is a noticeable fuel shortage in the North West and North of the country, including parts of the greater Paris region."

The Real Oil Limits Story - What Other Researchers Missed

For a long time, a common assumption has been that the world will eventually “run out” of oil and other non-renewable resources. Instead, we seem to be running into surpluses and low prices. What is going on that was missed by M. King Hubbert, Harold Hotelling, and by the popular understanding of supply and demand?

Oil "Rebalancing" In Jeopardy After Iran Output Soars To Pre-Sanction Levels, Russia "Pours Cold Water" On OPEC Forecast

The biggest non-OPEC member disagreed with OPEC's latest rosy - if only for OPEC countries - assessment, when Russia poured cold water on the notion that recent falls in production in the Americas, Asia and Africa had wiped out a global production and storage overhang.  Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak told reporters on Thursday that the global oil surplus stood at 1.5 million bpd and that the market might not balance out until the first half of 2017.

WTI Crude Tops $47 To 6-Month Highs After IEA Forecast

Following IEA's report this morning which proclaimed OPEC production at record highs but forecast a drop in the global oil glut in the first half of the year (due to demand from India, as the current marginal demand driver - China's teapot refiners - have since slowed dramatically), WTI crude prices have jumped back above $47 for the first time since November 2015. It seems, however, tha traders did not read the sedtion that said, further gains in oil prices “are likely to be limited by brimming crude and products stocks.”

Futures Halt Selloff, Levitate Higher On Another USDJPY Spike; Oil Rises

If yesterday's selloff had a specific catalyst, namely some of the worst consumer retail earnings seen in years, it merely undid the Tuesday rally which levitated global risk with no fundamental driver, aside for a 200 pip spike in the USDJPY.  Some central bankers may even say it was a "magical" levitation. Fast forward to the overnight session when following a muted Asian session, it was once again up to the "magical" USDJPY to send stocks well into the green without any actual catalyst whatsoever, but what merely appears to have been another "magical" intervention session by the BOJ.