International Energy Agency

• As scandals mount, White House springs into damage control (Reuters)
• Glencore Xstrata chairman ousted in surprise coup (Reuters), former BP CEO Tony Hayward appointed as interim chairman (WSJ)
• JPMorgan Chase asks Bloomberg for data records (Telegraph)
• Platts Retains Energy Trader Confidence Amid Price-Fix Probe (BBG)
• Syrian Internet service comes back online (PCWorld)
• Japan Q1 growth hits 3.5% on Abe impact although fall in business investment clouds optimism for recovery (FT)
• Soros Joins Gold-Stake Cuts Before Bear Market Drop (BBG)
• Factory Ceiling Collapses in Cambodia (WSJ)
• Sony’s $100 Billion Lost Decade Supports Loeb Breakup (BBG)
• Snags await favourite for Federal Reserve job (FT)
• James Bond’s Pinewood Turned Down on $300 Million Plan (BBG)

• Once a beacon, Obama under fire over civil liberties (Reuters)
• Eurozone in longest recession since birth of currency bloc (FT)
• EU Oil Manipulation Probe Shines Light on Platts Pricing Window (BBG)
• BMWs Cheaper Than Hyundais in Korea as Tariffs Crumble (BBG)
• Stock Boom Isn't a Bubble, Says BOJ's Kuroda (WSJ)
• Struggling France strives to shake off economic gloom (FT)
• JPMorgan investors take heat off Dimon (FT)
• Private-Equity Firms Build Instead of Buy (WSJ)
• Bloomberg Saga Highlights Clash Between Two Worlds (WSJ)
• Bank documents portray Cyprus as Russia's favorite haven (Reuters)
• HSBC Signals 14,000 Jobs Cuts in $3 Billion Savings Plan (BBG)
• Argentines Hold More Than $50 Billion in U.S. Currency (BBG)

• Controversies give Obama new governing headaches (Reuters)
• About that Capex... BHP to Rein In Investment, Chief Says (WSJ), considers returning cash to shareholders (FT)
• Bloomberg users’ messages leaked online (FT)
• Japanese mayor sparks China outrage with sex-slave remarks (Reuters)
• Economists Cut China Forecasts (WSJ)
• U.S. oil boom leaves OPEC sidelined from demand growth (Reuters)
• U.S. banks push back on change in loan loss accounting (Reuters)
• Fed’s Plosser Says Slowing Inflation No Concern for Policy (BBG)
• Watchdog probes 1m US swap contracts (FT)
• Used Gold Supply Heads for ’08 Low as Sellers Balk (BBG)
• Ex-BlackRock Manager Said to Be Arrested in U.K. Probe (BBG)

Biggest loser? China.

How effective have the sanctions been in moderating Iran’s behavior up to now? Current indications are not much, despite the damage inflicted on the country’s economy. On 9 January Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that Iran should establish more processing industries in the oil and gas sectors to reduce dependency on exports of crude oil and that the budget plan for the next Iranian year of 1392 (to start on 21 March) envisaged less dependence on crude oil revenues as the government intends to replace crude oil exports with oil derivatives to allow the nation’s economy to participate in the oil sector’s lucrative downstream industry.... A regime that has weathered more than three decades of tumult in its efforts to construct an Islamic society seems unlikely in an energy-starved world to ameliorate its behavior solely to please the dictates of Washington, Brussels, the UN and Canberra. And oh, on 14 September 2012 the United States exempted Belgium, Britain, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, and Japan from complying with the sanctions for another 180 days, a list that was expanded on 8 December to include China, India, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Turkey, and Taiwan.

• Obama Concessions Signal Potential Bipartisan Budget Deal (BBG)
• Cerberus to sell gunmaker after massacre (CNN)
• With New Offers, Fiscal-Cliff Talks Narrow (WSJ)
• Judge rejects Apple injunction bid vs. Samsung (Reuters)
• U.S. policy gridlock holding back economy? Maybe not (Reuters)
• President fears for Italy’s credibility (FT)
• Struggles Mount for Greeks as Economy Faces Winter (WSJ)
• Abe leans on BoJ in post-election meeting (FT)
• Bank of Japan to mull 2 percent inflation target as Abe turns up heat (Reuters)
• EU exit is ‘imaginable’, says Cameron (FT)
• Mortgage Risk Under Fire in Nordics as Bubbles Fought (BBG)
• Sweden cuts interest rates to 1% (FT)
• External risks impede China recovery, more easing seen (Reuters)

• The Bild is now a source for EURUSD stop hunts: Germany eyes 'bundled' loan payment to Greece-paper (Reuters, Bloomberg)
• Congress comes back Tuesday to confront “fiscal cliff.”  (Reuters)
• Gen. John Allen ensnared in Petraeus scandal (Politico)
• FBI Agent in Petraeus Case Under Scrutiny (WSJ)
• Comcast's NBCUniversal unit lays off 500 employees (Reuters)
• University Fees Stoke U.K. Inflation (WSJ)
• Consumers Closing Wallets in Japan Add to Noda’s Woes (Bloomberg)
• John McAfee Wanted for Murder... and explaining bathsalt anal suppositories (Gizmodo)
• Europe Gives Greece 2 More Years to Reach Deficit Targets (Bloomberg)
• Where Spain Is Worse Than Greece (WSJ)
• Microsoft's Windows unit head, once a possible CEO, exits (Reuters)
• Glitch stops NYSE trading in 216 companies (FT)
• Large European Banks Stash Cash (WSJ)
• The death of San Bernardino: How a vicious circle of self-interest sank California city (Reuters)
• Apple stores most productive US shops (FT)
• Treasuries See U.S. Falling Over Cliff as Yields Converge (Bloomberg)
• Bra-Bodysuits Make H&M One Hit Wonder as Zara Prospers (Bloomberg)

Violence, oil theft, pipeline vandalism, kidnappings, pollution, piracy, sabotage, decrepit infrastructure, and electricity for 50% of the people

It must be election season because moment ago Reuters just reported that the White House is "dusting off old plans on a potential SPR release as prices rise" according to a source with knowledge of the situation. This too, just like the earlier Corzine news, should not be a surprise. Obama made it expressly clear that with the election fast approaching, he would either force the CME to hike margins, which is also coming, or would proceed with the far dumber step of an SPR release, just so China can full up its own strategic release faster and at a lower cost. The spun version, of course, has to do with Iran, and the fear of "undermining" Iran sanction success. The same sanctions which the US granted key Iran client China a compliance waiver...

Given the rather weak near-term and long-term outlook for US coal demand, it’s not surprising that within such a capital-intensive business, a number of smaller coal producers were hit recently with bankruptcy rumors. Indeed, even large cap names like Arch Coal have seen an escalation of concern over debt levels. Accordingly, many have concluded that coal -- in an era of solar, wind, and natural gas -- has finally displaced itself due to its problematic extraction, distant transportation, and overall costs. Is coal finally going away as an energy source?

Not a chance.

Indeed, everything currently unfolding for coal in the United States is precisely what is not unfolding for coal globally. Prices to import natural gas to most countries via LNG remain sky-high, easily protecting coal’s cost advantage. And the demand for coal in the developing world remains gargantuan. Accordingly, just as with oil, lower US demand simply frees up supply to elsewhere in the world. The global coal juggernaut rolls onward.

All you need to read.

All you need to read.

All you need to read and some more.

#444444; font-size: 12px; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;">Based on supply, demand and even after taking into account the geopolitical factor, we believe#444444; font-size: 12px; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;"> oil could experience a correction later this year and in the next three years or so.

The Deepwater Horizon incident demonstrated that most of the oil left is deep offshore or in other locations difficult to reach. Moreover, to obtain the oil remaining in currently producing reservoirs requires additional equipment and technology that comes at a higher price in both capital and energy. In this regard, the physical limitations on producing ever-increasing quantities of oil are highlighted, as well as the possibility of the peak of production occurring this decade. The economics of oil supply and demand are also briefly discussed, showing why the available supply is basically fixed in the short to medium term. Also, an alarm bell for economic recessions is raised when energy takes a disproportionate amount of total consumer expenditures. In this context, risk mitigation practices in government and business are called for. As for the former, early education of the citizenry about the risk of economic contraction is a prudent policy to minimize potential future social discord. As for the latter, all business operations should be examined with the aim of building in resilience and preparing for a scenario in which capital and energy are much more expensive than in the business-as-usual one.