International Energy Agency

In Last Minute Twist OPEC Demands Big Production Cuts From Non-OPEC Members; Russia Balks

Under pressure from OPEC to make significant output cuts, Russia balked saying it was ready to freeze oil production at current levels, which it aruged is the equivalent of a cut: "According to our plans, (Russia's) oil output is going up next year. If we keep production at the current level we are making our contribution, for us that essentially means a cut of 200,000-300,000 barrels per day (in 2017)" energy minister Novak said.

Frontrunning: November 17

  • Dollar halts charge as bashed bonds steady (Reuters)
  • BOJ Fires Warning at Bond Market With Unlimited Buying Plan (BBG)
  • Trump Flouts Traditions Heading Into an Office Defined by Them (BBG)
  • Mr. Hedge Fund Goes to Washington, Looking for Ally in Trump (BBG)
  • Donald Trump’s Son-in-Law, Jared Kushner, Could Get Key White House Role (WSJ)

Everything Is Soaring As Trump Makes Buying Stuff Great Again

The global repricing of inflation expectations continues at a feverish pace in the aftermath of the Trump victory, leading to another surge in US equity futures, up 15 points or 0.7% to 2175 at last check, with Asian and European stock market all surging after the initial shock of Trump’s election victory gave way to optimism for fiscal stimulus will provide a boost to the global economy.  Commodity metals soared with copper surging the most since May 2013.

Even More OPEC Confusion: Unclear Who Cuts First, If Anyone, As Production Hits New Record High

Following yesterday's latest IEA report which showed that OPEC production had hit an all time high, this morning OPEC released its own estimate of production by OPEC member nations for September and, not surprisingly, the latest report showed that in the month OPEC was supposed to be set on "cutting" production, the 14-nation group produced a whopping 33.39 million b/d crude in Sept., up 220k b/d from August.

Futures Fail To Rebound As Deutsche Bank Tries To Comfort Markets That It Is "Fine"

After yesterday's "Hillary rally" in the US, the overnight's session has seen more risk-on sentiment as European stocks advanced, ignoring weakness in Asia as investors followed every twist of shares of beleaguered lender Deutsche Bank, whose CEO last night assured Bill readers that the bank is not seeking a bailout, which however was contradicted by a Zeit article this morning reporting that Germany may seek as much as s 25% "bailout" stake in a worst case scenario.

Saudis Offer To Cut Production By 500,000 Barrels: "The Oil Market Situation Is Much More Critical"

Saudi Arabia offered to cut its oil output to January levels, as OPEC members seek ways to stabilize crude prices at talks this week in Algiers.“Saudi Arabia is ready to freeze production at the January level,” Boutarfa said, calling the offer “an interesting step.” Saudi Arabia pumped a record 10.69 million barrels a day in August compared with 10.2 million in January, suggesting the Saudis are willing to cut total output by half a million barrels. 

US Futures; Euro Stocks Slide On Deutsche Bank Liquidity Fears; Bonds Bid

Following yesterday's paradoxical US stock surge catalyzed by a bevy of bad macroeonomic news, the overnight session has seen some good old "risk off" mood which hit European shares as a result of the previously reported $14 billion DOJ claim against Deutsche Bank, which sent Europe's biggest bank tumbling, dragging the banking sector lower, while a continued drop in the price of oil pushed energy companies lower.

Four Scenarios For Oil Producers Ahead Of Algiers

After two years of a Saudi-led strategy of all-out pumping, adopted to protect market share against the surge in U.S. shale oil, OPEC and Russia are putting cooperation back on the table. As Bloomberg notes, their last attempt to do this - a proposal to freeze output in April - collapsed in acrimony because of rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran. There may be four potential outcomes from the Algiers talks.

The Permian Pitfall: A Race To The Bottom For Tight Oil

Remember the shale gale and Saudi America? The scale of those outlandish delusions has now dwindled to plays in a few counties in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Saudi Permian. It’s a race to the bottom as investors double down on the tight oil companies that can still tell a growth story.

Futures Rise, Global Stocks Flat After Ugly Chinese Economic Data

One day after all three US indexes hit record highs for the first time since December 31, 1999, US equity index futures, European stocks and Asian equities are little changed after the Nikkei jumped on the back of a Yen weakness, while China reported disappointing economic data and the PBOC suggested that the flood of new debt is slowing which pushed Chinese stocks higher by 1.6% on hopes of more stimulus.

Busting Media Myths On Peak Oil

Depending upon whom you speak with, peak oil is either a catastrophe waiting to happen or a far-off concern that has already been solved or will be soon. Frequently, peak oil is referred to as a myth. What you rarely hear is that peak oil is an empirical fact having already occurred in dozens of countries.