International Monetary Fund

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Greek Deal In Limbo After "Serious Disagreement" Between EU, IMF





On the heels of Monday's news that the IMF may demand a write-off of Greek debt by European creditors before the organization will disburse its portion of a €7.2 billion aid tranche to Athens, it now appears the situation has deteriorated further with unnamed Greek officials reporting "serious disagreements" between the IMF and the EU which may make a compromise "impossible" by the critical May 12 deadline.

 
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Frontrunning: May 5





  • Fed's Yellen says met firm at heart of leak probes (Reuters)
  • EU Raises Growth Outlook as ECB Counters Greek Threat (BBG)
  • Hillary Clinton Takes Hit in WSJ Poll, but Holds Edge Over GOP Rivals (WSJ)
  • China stocks slump on tighter margin rules, IPOs; Hong Kong down (Reuters)
  • McDonald’s Chief Promises Turnaround in a Restructuring (NYT)
  • German Bond Market Selloff Continues (WSJ)
  • Vanguard overtakes Pimco’s Total Return following outflows in wake of Bill Gross’s departure (WSJ)
  • EU Demands Concessions as Greece Hurtles Toward Deadlines (BBG)
  • Junk Bonds Are The New Haven Assets (BBG)
 
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Gates Says Bet On Yuan As IMF Calls Currency Fairly Valued





For the first time in more than ten years, the IMF believes the yuan is close to fairly valued. This comes as the fund considers the yuan for SDR inclusion later this year and as China attempts to promote the currency to a more prominent role in the global economy. Meanwhile, Bill Gates says that although he "loves the dollar" he'd "put his bet on yuan."

 
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IMF Splinters From Rest Of Troika, Threatens To Cut Off Greek Funding





"Greece is so far off course on its $172bn bailout programme that it faces losing vital International Monetary Fund support unless European lenders write off significant amounts of its sovereign debt, the fund has warned Athens’ eurozone creditors," FT reports, indicating that the organization may force the ECB and implicitly the German taxpayer to take the hit if Greece wants to receive the last tranche of aid under its existing program.

 
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Frontrunning: May 4





  • Win or lose, Cameron's political career hangs by a thread (Reuters)
  • Greece aims for deal with lenders, IMF hard on reforms: minister (Reuters)
  • Greek Jobless Legacy Adds Danger for Tsipras as Funds Dry Up (BBG)
  • U.S. Will Change Stance on Secret Phone Tracking (WSJ)
  • China April HSBC PMI shows biggest drop in factory activity in a year (Reuters)
  • Goldman Sachs in Talks to Sell Its Coal Mines (WSJ)
  • Takeover Fuel Begins to Flow as S&P 500 Bull Run Makes History (BBG)
 
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"Completely Absurd" To Think Greece Won't Default In May: Official





Facing a pensioner rebellion and a looming payment due to the IMF, Greece’s back is now truly against the wall. As Handelsblatt reports, even if a deal were reached with creditors this weekend, it may now be logistically impossible for Greece to make a €780 million payment scheduled for May 12. Oh well, there's always war reparations...

 
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What Happens When You Hand Over Your Gold To The Bank Of England For "Safekeeping"





With London, Paris, and Basel’s compliance, Nazi Germany had just looted 23.1 metric tons of gold without a shot being fired.

 
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The 10 Most Influential Economists (Still ALIVE)





So if you were sitting then in the turmoil of the economic upheaval and had to get on the phone to the one person that was likely to get you through the mortgage rates hikes and the jobless rates or the spiraling debt and inflationary pressure, then who would you immediately think of?

 
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Failed Chinese Local Bond Offering Leads To PBOC Easing Confusion





An inauspicious start to China's local government debt swap initiative has the PBoC scrambling to determine the best way to facilitate the successful issuance of new municipal securities as several provinces have reportedly canceled or delayed offerings. Now, the question is whether Chinese LTROs will be enough, or whether outright QE will ultimately be the only option.

 
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One Last Look At The Real Economy Before It Implodes - Part 6: Solutions





All problems, all crises, have at least one solution, if not many solutions. There is no such thing as an unwinnable scenario. Some may not be smart enough or courageous enough to see it, but the solution is always there, waiting to be discovered. The only fight that cannot be won is the fight in which the enemy makes all the rules and we foolishly abide by those rules. Life is not a game of chess, and a man can choose to be more than a pawn anytime he has the guts to do so. Collapse is already upon us; now we must decide who will determine what happens next.

 
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11 Signs That We Are Entering The Next Phase Of The Global Economic Crisis





Well, the Nasdaq finally did it. So if you invested in the Nasdaq at the peak of the dotcom bubble, you are just finally breaking even 15 years later.  Unfortunately, the truth is that stocks have not been soaring because the U.S. economy is fundamentally strong.  Just like the last two times, what we are witnessing is an irrational financial bubble.  Sometimes these irrational bubbles can last for a surprisingly long time, but in the end they always burst.  And even now there are signs of economic trouble bubbling to the surface all around us. 

 
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The 'Relentless' Greek Debt Payment Schedule





Greece, which owes €324 billion to the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank, and euro zone governments, faces a relentless debt payment schedule over the next few months.

 
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BoJ QE Exit "Out Of The Question," Former Official Says As Morgan Stanley Talks JGB Liquidity





"If the BoJ persists with its current pace of JGB purchases, then the incentive for investors to reduce their holdings any further is likely to dwindle away within the next 18–24 months, at which point liquidity may evaporate altogether," Morgan Stanley says, calling liquidity the "major theme" in the JGB market. Meanwhile, a former MoF official claims the BoJ is now in so far over its head that an exit from stimulus is "out of the question."

 
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"China Has A Massive Debt Problem", And Why It Is About Get Much Massiver





"China has a $28 trillion problem. That’s the country’s total government, corporate and household debt load as of mid-2014... equal to 282 percent of the country’s total annual economic output," Bloomberg notes, adding that efforts to deleverage this massive debt burden aren't compatible with the measures Beijing needs to take to boost economic growth. But if you thought the debt problem was bad now, it's going to get worse because as Reuters notes, China is about to activate the ABS machine.

 
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Frontrunning: April 22





  • Because it just gets funnier: UK speed trader arrested over role in 2010 'flash crash' (Reuters)
  • ... and funnier: Mystery Trader Armed With Algorithms Rewrites Flash Crash Story (BBG)
  • Presidential hopeful Rubio reaches out to gay Republicans (Reuters)
  • Varoufakis Sees Differences Narrowing in Creditor Talks (BBG)
  • China Debt Mess Brings Out the Yin and Yang in Policy Makers (BBG)
  • Hedge Fund That Made 18% on Dollar Strength Now Bets on Drop (BBG)
  • Whistleblower Jim Marchese Scores Millions in Payout—Again (WSJ)
  • Release of Benghazi Report on Hillary Clinton Likely Pushed to Election Season (BBG)
 
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