International Monetary Fund

The Elites Are Privately Warning About A Crash

"...demand for secure vaulting space in major financial centers like London and Frankfurt is soaring. There are plenty of bank safe deposit boxes in those cities, but investors are insisting on non-bank vaults because investors understand that the banks cannot be trusted in a panic"

Frontrunning: July 25

  • Dollar slumps to 13-month lows before Fed; euro up (Reuters)
  • Overwhelming approval likely for Russia bill (Reuters)
  • Trump to study tougher Russia sanctions bill: White House (Reuters)
  • Unrest bubbles among Trump's key foreign policy aides (Reuters)
  • Abe Overtaken by Rival as Top Choice for Japan Premier in Poll (BBG)

Euro Surges To 2-Year High In "Bipolar" Draghi Reaction; Futures Flat

"Draghi tried to talk the Euro down, even going so far as to suggest that ECB’s quantitative easing could be increased and prolonged," said Swissquote Bank's Yann Quelenn. "But the currency markets were not buying Draghi’s line, and neither are we. Available bonds are too scarce, and turn to a taper is too clear to disguise."

Global Stocks Hit Record High, Set For Longest Winning Streak Since 2015

With the USD just off 10-month lows, there continues to be an easing of loosening of financial conditions for emerging markets which also supports equities. After decent gains in Asia on the back of positive signs from China this week, MSCI's world stocks index looked set for a ninth day of gains which would mark its longest winning streak since October 2015.

Welcome To Donald Trump's Very Own Big, Fat, Ugly Bubble

"...the Fed is only now beginning to apprehend the train-wreck that lies dead ahead (the June FOMC minutes were grasping for something dimly worrisome)... The Donald now owns the Bubble and has left his Presidency and the American economy squarely in harms’ way..."

The European Union Has A Currency Problem

Donald Trump, for all his rhetorical clumsiness and intellectual limitations, still sometimes makes a valid point. He does when he says that Germany is “very bad on trade.” However much Berlin claims innocence and good intentions, the fact remains that the euro heavily stacks the deck in favor of German exporters and against others, in Europe and further afield.