International Monetary Fund

Recession Now... Or Depression Later

Currently economists and market watchers roughly fall into two camps: Those who believe that the Federal Reserve must begin raising interest rates now so that it will have enough rate cutting firepower to fight the next recession, and those who believe that raising rates now will simply precipitate an immediate recession and force the Fed into battle without the tools it has traditionally used to stimulate growth. Both camps are delusional, but for different reasons.

Frontrunning: October 11

  • Samsung scraps Note 7 (Reuters)
  • Note 7 fiasco could burn a $17 billion hole in Samsung accounts (Reuters)
  • Trump's struggles may depress Democratic voter turnout (Reuters)
  • Major Investor Sues Theranos  (WSJ)
  • S. Africa’s Gordhan to Be Charged; Rand Plunges Most Since June (BBG)
  • Oil price falls back from one-year highs, hit by OPEC deal concerns (Reuters)

Do You Believe In QE Miracles?

"This is a very artificial market," warns Allianz' Mohammed El-Erian, and while markets are expecting an ever increasing pace of central bank buying of assets, their policies are no longer working...

A Mile-High House Of Cards

The mass media and establishment economists don’t dare call it a depression. But a depression it is.

The Economic "Recovery" Feels Weak Because The Great Recession Never Really Ended

"We are not in a recovery and were not really in a traditional recession. People think of a business cycle as a boom, followed by a recession and then there are automatic stabilizers that revive the economy, but this time, we can't revive. And the reason is that every recovery since 1945 has begun with a higher, and higher, and higher level of debt. And the debt is so high now that since 2008 we've been in what I call, debt deflation."

 

Doomed To Failure

In short, the U.S. economy may never reach “escape velocity” unless it is first allowed to crash.  It has been too larded up and larded over with debt for any real sustainable growth to take root.  More evidence, to this effect, was revealed this week.

IMF Chief Christine Lagarde Should Resign Immediately

Does being the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund mean never having to say sorry? As Christine Lagarde blunders on from one mishap to another with apparent insouciance, it would appear so.

Frontrunning: October 6

  • Millions flee as Southeast U.S. braces for Hurricane Matthew (Reuters)
  • Hurricane Matthew Is a $15 Billion Threat Headed to Florida (BBG)
  • Three Risks to the Global Financial System as Debt Hits Record Levels (WSJ)
  • Deutsche Bank’s $14 Billion Scare (BBG)
  • Deutsche Bank Mismarked 37 Deals Like Paschi’s, Audit Says (BBG)
  • Monte Paschi Said to Plan Debt-Swap Deadline Before Italian Poll (BBG)

Preparing For A Resurgence Of Globalism

When the Brexit vote occurred, we suggested a dialogue would be created in mainstream media painting populism as responsible for numerous economic political and military difficulties. Gradually, globalism would be suggested as the remedy for populism. That process has begun and the IMF/World bank meetings are leading the way...