International Monetary Fund

Dave Collum's 2016 Year In Review - "And Then Things Got Really Weird..."

"Markets don’t have a purpose any more - they just reflect whatever central planners want them to. Why wouldn’t it lead to the biggest collapse? My strategy doesn’t require that I’m right about the likelihood of that scenario. Logic dictates to me that it’s inevitable..."

Who Won The 2016 Oil War?

Heading into the New Year with oil prices above US$50, both OPEC and the U.S. shale industry are claiming victory in the latest oil war battle - and both expect to benefit from higher prices, but there can really only be one winner here.

Frontrunning: December 20

  • Trump wins Electoral College vote; a few electors break ranks (Reuters)
  • European Stocks Head for a One-Year High (BBG)
  • Japan's Central Bank Keeps Policy Unchanged, Upgrades Economic Outlook (BBG)
  • Russia and Turkey vow to keep detente on track after murder (FT)
  • The Political Implications of Events in Ankara and Berlin (BBG)

IMF Head Lagarde Convicted Of Negligence, Faces No Jail Time; IMF Board To Meet Shortly

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde was found guilty of one count of negligence by a French court today, according to Bloomberg News. She was accused of failing to prevent a massive government payout to businessman Bernard Tapie eight years ago, while serving as France’s finance minister, but most surprising, she will face no fine or jail sentence.

Frontrunning: December 16

  • The narrative continues this time from Reuters: Putin turned election hacks in Trump's favor: officials (Reuters)
  • Russian Special Forces Key to Aleppo Victory (WSJ)
  • Dollar Hits Speed Bump in Fed-Driven Rally; Bonds Stem Declines (BBG)
  • Battered euro and yen recover after dollar surge (Reuters)
  • Wall Street's 2017 Forecasts Are Doomed If Trump Doesn't Follow Through On Campaign Promises (BBG)

What Is The Real Purpose Behind "Fake News" Propaganda?

In the end, ideological combat actually prevents people from learning rather than helping them get to the root of the issue. We live in a world where truth is superfluous to the overall narrative. The only thing that is important is destroying your rivals.

Frontrunning: December 13

  • Trump Picks Exxon Chief for State Amid Concerns (Reuters)
  • Buoyant Markets Pose New Challenge for the Fed (WSJ)
  • Tweeter-in-Chief Trump Faces Test After Yellen’s Rate Decision (BBG)
  • Trump Dissing Daily Intelligence Briefing Worsens Rift With CIA (BBG)
  • SWIFT confirms new cyber thefts, hacking tactics (Reuters)