International Monetary Fund

• Tea Party struggles to repeat Cantor-style shock in Tennessee (Reuters)
• Iran Deploys Forces to Fight al Qaeda-Inspired Militants in Iraq (WSJ)
• Oil Rallies as Militant Advance in Iraq Threatens Crude (BBG)
• Gold Set for First Back-to-Back Weekly Gain Since April (BBG)
• Hedge Funds Get Stung by Slow Markets (WSJ)
• Sterling nears 5-year high after Carney speech (FT)
• Britain Warns Boom in Real-Estate Prices Threatens Economy (WSJ)
• East Europe Leaders Urge EU Unity to Counter Russia (BBG)
• Formula One Said to Be Valued at $8 Billion as Malone Seeks Stake (BBG)
• Dumb and dumber: Abe Plans Company Tax Cut in 2015 as Kuroda Warns on Budget (BBG)

Yesterday, the IMF and World Bank issued warnings about rising interest rates, housing crashes and the global economy. The World Bank’s chief economist is inadvertantly offering important advice to investors and savers when he said that "now is the time to prepare for the next crisis ..."

With 10Y yields trading below those of US Treasuries, asking the question of Spain's rising default risk seems risible but as Bloomberg's Maxime Sbaihi notes, the longer the euro flirts with deflation, the higher the risk that the heavily indebted (and becoming more so) countries will be tempted to default. Of course, this 'concern' is entirely ignored by the 'market' as Draghi has promised enough liquidity to soak up every short-dated bond but as the European Union's so-called "1/20 rule" suggests - requiring states to reduce excessive (over 60% Debt/GDP) by 1/20th every year or face a fine of 0.2% of GDP - Spain, it appears has 5 options to escape this vicious circle... and one of those is restructuring...

Having previously admitted its an idiot and a liar over Greece forecasts, constantly missed world expectations with a much more rosy picture of hockey-stick-like growth than actually occurs, and now Ukraine's insanely optimistic assessments; we thought it only fair to point out that, yet again, Christine Lagarde has been forced to say "we got it wrong." This time the IMF underestimated UK growth - a year after blasting the nation's planners for "playing with fire" by cutting its budget spending. As Bloomberg reports, pressed on whether she had apologized to Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, Lagarde stopped short of saying so and said “Do I have to go on my knees?”

Timothy Geithner is likely to go down in American history as one of the most dangerous, destructive cronies to have ever wielded government power. The man is so completely and totally full of shit it’s almost impossible not to notice. The last thing we’d ever want to do in our free time is read a lengthy book filled with Geithner lies and propaganda, so we owe a large debt of gratitude to former Congressional staffer Matt Stoller for doing it for us. Stoller simply tears Geither apart limb from limb, detailing obvious lies about the financial crisis, and even more interestingly, Geithner’s bizarre bio, replete with mysterious and inexplicable promotions into positions of power..."Geithner is at heart a grifter, a petty con artist with the right manners and breeding to lie at the top echelons of American finance..."

The best lies contain elements of truth. The truth here is that the East is forming alliances in opposition to the West, the West is involved in underhanded covert operations all over the planet, and both “sides” are in fact on the verge of a catastrophic battle for supremacy. The great lie is that important details have been left out of our little story. Both sides are merely puppet pieces in a grand game of global chess, and any conflict will ultimately benefit the small group of men standing over the board. They include the international financiers who have influenced the very policy fabric of each government toward a climactic crisis which they hope will finally give them the “New World Order” they have always dreamed of.

The unmitigated gall...

We found it surprising that it was none other than Paul Volcker himself who, on May 21 at the annual meeting of the Bretton Woods Committee, said that "by now I think we can agree that the absence of an official, rules-based cooperatively managed, monetary system has not been a great success. In fact, international financial crises seem at least as frequent and more destructive in impeding economic stability and growth." We can, indeed, agree. However, we certainly disagree with Volcker's proposal for a solution to this far more brittle monetary system: a new Bretton Woods.

"Unbridled faith in financial markets prior to the crisis and the recent demonstrations of corruption ... has eroded social capital. An unstable dynamic of declining trust in the financial system and growing exclusivity of capitalism threatens.... Capitalism must reassess bankers' sense of self."

When 2014 started, expectations were sky high and as Saxo Bank's Chief Economist Steen Jakobsen notes, policymakers and their support organisations like the OECD, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank were all quick to call the crisis over and project a true recovery. Now just five month into the year we have seen nothing but disappointing data both relatively speaking but certainly also in absolute terms. As the following presentation outlines, Jakobsen believes we will see new low yields in this cycle this year and that 2014 will also be the year of the low in terms of: inflation expectations, wage/salary, velocity of money, loan demand, lack of reform, and innovation reforms.

China and Russia signed an historic agreement in Shanghai this week - the ramifications of which have yet to be appreciated ... Reserve currency status does not last forever. Empires rise and fall. The world is constantly changing and evolving. Nothing lasts forever …

Speaking like a jilted girlfriend, German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble exclaimed that "Russia needs Europe more than China to develop economy," following the signing of the 'holy grail' gas deal this week. But the German saved his sternest comments for his US "allies" as he explained discussions over sanctions and negotiations with Russia over Ukrains would "be even more successful if the United States understands that it is also part of the West." Reflecting on the waning US influence and slamming US Congress delays over IMF reform, Schaeuble unleashed the following: "Perhaps now more of those in power in the United States will ask themselves: Why is America's soft power, even though it is the indispensable nation, not so great as to be understood by the dumb Germans?" As the WSJ reports, Schaeuble reiterated "we won't seek military escalation, but we will of course use our political and diplomatic abilities to increase the pressure on Russia to abide by the rules."

On the surface, the economic atmosphere of the U.S. has appeared rather calm and uneventful. Stocks are up, employment isn’t great but jobs aren’t collapsing into the void (at least not openly), and the U.S. dollar seems to be going strong. Peel away the thin veneer, however, and a different financial horror show is revealed.  With the Ukraine crisis now escalating to fever pitch, BRIC nations are openly discussing the probability of “de-dollarization” in international summits, and the ultimate dumping of the dollar as the world reserve currency. The U.S. is in desperate need of a benefactor to purchase its ever rising debt and keep the system running. Strangely, a buyer with apparently bottomless pockets has arrived to pick up the slack that the Fed and the BRICS are leaving behind. But, who is this buyer? At first glance, it appears to be the tiny nation of Belgium. Clearly, this is impossible, and someone, somewhere, is using Belgium as a proxy in order to prop up the U.S. But who?

A specter is haunting Washington, an unnerving vision of a Sino-Russian alliance wedded to an expansive symbiosis of trade and commerce across much of the Eurasian land mass - at the expense of the United States.

We are happy to report that Zero Hedge is the first media outlet that Mario Draghi has very publicly, officially, and on the record, lied to. Because as we learned overnight, Europe most certainly had a "plan in place so that the markets don't basically collapse." Only it wasn't as Margio Draghi called it, Plan B. It was a different letter of the alphabet. Thanks to the FT's Peter Spiegel we now know that just over a year ago, in order to preserve the myth that Europe's power echelons are so "confident" with the Eurozone staying together they did not even consider a break up as a potential outcome, Draghi explicitly and on the record lied.

Presenting Europe's Plan Z.