International Monetary Fund

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Global Deflation Alert: Hidden EM Debts To China Could Be Immense





Though emerging economies’ debts seem largely moderate by historic standards, it seems likely that they are being underestimated, perhaps by a large margin. If so, the magnitude of the ongoing reversal in capital flows that emerging economies are experiencing may be larger than is generally believed – potentially large enough to trigger a crisis. In this context, keeping track of opaque and evolving financial linkages is more important than ever.

 
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Frontrunning: October 12





  • Central Bankers Urge Fed to Get On With Interest-Rate Increase (WSJ)
  • Bond Market Casualties Leading Biggest S&P 500 Revival Since '11 (BBG)... on hopes of more easing
  • U.S. Patrols to Test China’s Pledge on South China Sea Islands (WSJ)
  • Merkel Under Fire: German Conservatives Deeply Split over Refugees (Spiegel)
  • Assault Weapons Ban Before U.S. Supreme Court (NBC)
  • Hedge Funds Are Playing 'Dangerous Game' With Copper (BBG)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Death Of Cognitive Dollar Dissonance & The Remonetization Of Gold





“Capitalism is not primarily an incentive system but an information system.” Prices are the information. And the price of time itself is the single most valuable piece of information. Time, as we intuitively know, is money; they are two sides of the same coin. Mess with time and money, and you mess with everything else. Yet as with central planning in general, the central planning of either money, or time, cannot possibly work. Hayek warned the economics profession of precisely this in the 1970s. They didn’t listen, ensconced as they still remain within their interventionist Keynesian paradigm. Well that paradigm is about to be blown apart, time and money are about to return to the market, where they belong, and real, sustainable economic progress is about to restart once again.

 
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Frontrunning: October 9





  • Global stocks eye biggest rally in four years on Fed relief (Reuters)
  • FOMC Minutes Sap Confidence in Fed's 2015 Rate Hike Resolve (BBG)
  • Glencore to cut annual zinc production by a third (FT)
  • Tea Party wave that lifted Republicans threatens to engulf them (Reuters)
  • Why Kevin McCarthy Came to Quit Speaker Race (WSJ)
  • A U.S. Recession Just Got a Little More Likely (BBG)
 
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"I Would Say Don't Worry" Says Chinese Central Banker As Indian Central Banker Says "World Economy Is Looking Grim"





"I would say, don't worry" said Yi Gang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, after the International Monetary Fund warned of risks in China's economic challenges.

"The world economy is looking grim" - said Raghuram Rajan, Indian central bank governor and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.

 
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Frontrunning: October 7





  • How Iranian general plotted out Syrian assault in Moscow (Reuters)
  • China FX reserves post record quarterly fall as cenbank steps up yuan support (Reuters)
  • MSF calls for independent inquiry into U.S. attack on Afghan hospital (Reuters)
  • Yen Advances as Bank of Japan Refrains From Adding to Stimulus (Reuters)
  • Abu Dhabi Said to Explore Asset Sales After Slump in Oil Price (BBG)
  • U.S. Oil Approaching $50 Boosts Stocks as Emerging Markets Surge (BBG)
 
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Yuan Rising: China Surpasses Japan To Claim Number Four Spot In Most Used Global Currencies





"The data are positive for the probability of the yuan getting into the SDR basket. It shows that the so-called devaluation in August, which wasn’t massive in value, hasn’t driven people away from using the yuan."

 
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Central Banks Now In "Dangerous Situation": "You've Thrown The Kitchen Sink At It, What's Next?"





"There’s a lack of faith in monetary policy -- you’ve thrown the kitchen sink at it, you’ve cut rates to zero, you’re printing money -- and still inflation is lower. I think this is a dangerous situation if people perceive that it has the responsibility and it doesn’t have the tools."

 
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Gundlach Explains Why The Market Hasn't Crashed Yet: "People Are Holding And Hoping"





 "The reason the markets aren't going lower is people are holding and hoping." Incidentally, there is a reason why hope is not a strategy: in the end, it always fails.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Emerging Market Meltdown May Plunge Global Economy Into Recession





"The impotence of monetary policy in boosting growth and staving off deflationary pressures has become painfully apparent, especially when it is acting in isolation and when a large number of countries are resorting to the same limited playbook."

 
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Frontrunning: October 1





  • After Rough Quarter, Investors Buckle Up (WSJ)
  • From heroes to bystanders? Central banks' growth challenge (Reuters)
  • Russian Airstrike in Syria Targeted CIA-Backed Rebels, U.S. Officials Say (WSJ)
  • Kremlin says Syria air strikes target list of groups, not just Islamic State (Reuters)
  • That’s information warfare? Russia accused of killing civilians in Syria (RT)
  • Euro zone factory growth eases in August despite modest price rises (Reuters)
  • How Glencore's Crazy Month Makes Greek Banks Look Tame (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: September 30





  • Asia shares rally, but on track for worst quarterly loss in four years (Reuters)
  • Global Rally Shows Relief at End of $11 Trillion Stocks Meltdown (BBG)
  • Glencore Extends Rebound as Turmoil Shows Signs of Easing (BBG)
  • Putin wins parliamentary backing for air strikes in Syria (Reuters)
  • China Cuts Minimum Home Down Payment for First-Time Buyers (BBG)
  • German Unemployment Unexpectedly Rises in Sign of Economic Risks (BBG)
  • Japan Industrial Output Slide Hints at Recession (WSJ)
 
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A Currency War That Few Economists And Analysts Notice, Much Less Understand





Most economists and financial analysts think that 'currency war' merely refers to the competitive devaluations that nations sometimes engage in to help boost their domestic economies, as they had done in the 1930's for example. This time the currency war is a much more profound confrontation of differing agendas revolving around the historically unusual role of the US dollar, based on nothing more than the will of the Federal Reserve and the 'full faith and credit' of the US, as the reserve currency for global central banks and international trade.

 
GoldCore's picture

Russians Buy 1 Million Ounces of Gold Bars In August





Gold had a 3 percent weekly gain and silver had a 3.5% weekly gain. Gold ended with a gain of 0.73% on Friday while silver rose to as high as $15.43 before ending with a gain of 0.26%.

 
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