International Monetary Fund

Will Venezuela Be Forced To Embrace The Dollar?

The last phase in all cases of hyperinflation is currency stabilization. This phase is inevitable whether it be because of changes introduced by the government or due to complete rejection of local currency by the population. In order for such a monetary reform to be successful, it is essential that the government first eliminate the main cause of the inflation (the budget deficit). Unfortunately, it does not seem as though the Venezuelan government has any plans to decrease spending, nor does it appear that revenue from oil will be recovering any time soon, meaning that any attempts at currency stabilization will surely fail (just as it did the last time when the bolivar fuerte was introduced in 2008). In light of this situation, it seems that Thiers’ Law is inevitable.

SaxoBank CIO Warns "Central Banks Can Do Nothing"

Saxo Bank chief economist Steen Jakobsen said that zero rates, zero growth, zero productivity, and zero reforms have left a great many countries adrift in a “new nothingness”. The products of this nothingness, said Jakobsen, include apathy, stagnation and “an economic outlook based more in peoples’ heads than in reality”.

Frontrunning: May 18

  • Stocks sag as U.S. rate rise expectations revive (Reuters)
  • Clinton, Sanders hit final stretch of nominating contest (Reuters)
  • Bernie Sanders Wins in Oregon, But He Needed Kentucky, Too (NBC)
  • Clinton less than 100 delegates from nomination (The Hill)
  • Trump needs 66 delegates to officially clinch nomination (The Hill)
  • Japan GDP Rebound Not Enough to Stave Off Stimulus (WSJ)

The Mystery Of Saudi Treasury Holdings Solved: US Reveals Saudi Holdings For The First Time

One month ago, when the NYT reported that Saudi Arabia would liquidate as much as $750 billion in Trasurys should the US pursue legislation that could hold it liable for the September 11 bombings, many asked: does Saudi Arabia own that many Treasurys?  We now have the answer courtesy of a Bloomberg FOIA submission to the US treasury, and our estimate of "far less" Saudi holdings was indeed accurate. As Bloomberg reports, "the stockpile of the world’s biggest oil exporter stood at $116.8 billion as of March."

Who Rules The World? Part 1

The Western picture of world order is that “ever since the end of the Cold War, the overwhelming power of the U.S. military has been the central fact of international politics.” This is particularly crucial in three regions: East Asia, where “the U.S. Navy has become used to treating the Pacific as an ‘American lake’”; Europe, where NATO -- meaning the United States, which “accounts for a staggering three-quarters of NATO’s military spending” -- “guarantees the territorial integrity of its member states”; and the Middle East, where giant U.S. naval and air bases “exist to reassure friends and to intimidate rivals.” The problem of world order today is that “these security orders are now under challenge in all three regions” because of Russian intervention in Ukraine and Syria, and because of China turning its nearby seas from an American lake to “clearly contested water.” The fundamental question of international relations, then, is whether the United States should “accept that other major powers should have some kind of zone of influence in their neighborhoods.”

How Hedge Funds Invest Heavily In Washington D.C.'s Culture Of Corruption

If you want to get a sense of what’s motivating Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders voters, it’s a desire to take people like Robert Shapiro, remove them from the halls of power, and toss them into a cardboard box on the street. Of course, that won’t be happening any time soon, but that’s what a lot of people want. As we detail below, confirmed recently by Congressman X, Washington is infested by the secretive world of the dark money groups representing mercenary hedge funds in their insatiable quest for more and more money. In many ways, it’s merely a microcosm of America in 2016. A culture in which ethics has become so irrelevant, it isn’t even a nuisance; it simply never factors into the equation.

Steve H. Hanke's picture

In January, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) told us that Venezuela’s annual inflation rate would hit 720 percent by the end of the year. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook, which was published in April, stuck with the 720 percent inflation forecast. What the IMF failed to do is tell us how they arrived at the forecast. Never mind. The press has repeated the 720 percent inflation forecast ad nauseam.

Full-Blown Fearmongering: Bank Of England Warns Of Recession, "Sharp" Sterling Fall If UK Leaves Europe

While the Bank of England voted unanimously 9-0 to keep rates on hold at 0.5%, what the market was far more focused on the BOE's latest gloomy scenarios about what would happen should the UK vote for Brexit on June 23. The BOE did not disappoint, and cautioned that that sterling could fall "sharply" and unemployment would probably rise, while in the press conference after the announcement BOE governor and former Goldmanite Mark Carney went all the way warning Brexit "could possibly lead to recession."

Frontrunning: May 12

  • Trump’s Early Backers on Capitol Hill See Their Profile Raised (WSJ)
  • Oil prices rise toward six-month high, tightening supply (Reuters)
  • EIA says outlook for oil brightens as output disruptions erode surplus (Reuters)
  • Investors Fleeing $9 Trillion of Negative Yields Fuel Bond Binge (BBG)
  • Beaten-Up Hedge Fund Billionaires Reminisce About 'Golden Age' (BBG)

MEPs Slam Latest Greek Bailout As "Social Armageddon"

Lawmakers in the European Parliament have sharply condemned the latest Greek bailout deal - reached after weeks of negotiations - which they say will lead to "Social Armageddon" and "too high a price to pay." As SputnikNews reports, heated exchanges over the state of play of the Greek macro-economic adjustment program were seen in the European Parliament this week, and divisions are also very evident within the Troika itself as obvious need for debt relief (IMF) is scuttled by Germany and the Eurogroup.

What Will The Global Economy Look Like After The "Great Reset"?

The globalist reset needs a trigger, a crisis which admittedly we do not have the ability to avoid. But, the reset also depends on the right people in place to rebuild the system after the crisis unfolds. Here is where the future can be determined. Whoever is left standing after the opening salvo will have a choice: to hide and hope for the best, or to fight for the position to choose who builds tomorrow. Will it be the psychotic globalist cabal, or will it be free people of conscience? It may not seem like it now, but the end result is up to us.

Central Banks And The Rise Of Extremism

Perhaps the world will have to wait it out to finally be graced with leaders who are willing to stand by their convictions and make hard, maybe even unpopular, choices. Such leaders might have to risk sacrificing everything political to be crowned the next true champions of conviction, giving us all a shot at a once again storied fate. Where does that leave us? Apparently angry. Very, very angry.