The good news for economic prosperity and freedom is that the failure of the grand experimenters next time to ignite asset price inflation early on in any incipient economic upturn might lead to their dismissal (if not effected earlier!).
"...anybody with any objective, critical, independent mind can tell this is an unsustainable, very ephemeral rally in stocks that has occurred since 2009. And when the bond market breaks, when that bubble bursts, it will wipe out every asset -- everything will collapse together -- because everything is geared off of that so-called 'risk free' rate of return."
On the current path, the world is experiencing the largest artificial asset allocation in modern history, one that is driven by a misguided interest rate regime that has lost its efficacy and is producing more harm than good. Yet the fear of withdrawal pain is keeping central bankers from doing the inevitable: Quit. The response is predictable: "I need the drugs!"
The old Wall Street expression is “They don’t ring a bell at the top.” This snarky adage is usually employed by those saddened financial managers who ride a successful investment to a peak and then watch in horror as it reverses course to a level below their cost basis. A pity this notion is misguided, since the market frequently “rings the bell.” It is just that most market participants are not listening. Perhaps they should be listening now.
In America today, we are enjoying a standard of living that we do not deserve. We consume far more wealth than we produce. The only way we are able to do that is by going into debt. Debt takes future consumption and brings it into the present. In other words, we are damaging the future in order to make the present a little bit better.
European stocks rose and US S&P futures fell after the dollar strengthened following the latest hawkish comments from Fed vice-chair Stanley Fischer signalled that a 2016 rate hike is still being considered and again boosted speculation that US rates will rise this year. The rising dollar pressured commodities and notably oil, which dropped 2% breaking a 7 days stretch of increases; emerging markets retreated.
In the latest quiet trading session, European shares rose while Asian stocks fell and S&P futures were little changed. Minutes of the Fed’s last meeting damped prospects for a U.S. interest-rate hike, sending the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index doen 0.3%, approaching a three-month low. Dollar weakness continues to buoy commodities, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index set for the most enduring rally in more than two months, as WTI flirted with $47
The only thing standing between Portugal's insanely decoupled low bond yields and the ugly fundamental reality is a BBB rating from DBRS which enables The ECB to keep buying the nation's bonds. The problem is, pressure is mounting on DBRS (the only 1 of 4 raters to maintain Portugal as investment grade) to drop the hammer... and Portuguese risk is rising.