Investor Sentiment

Draghi's 4 QE Scenarios Unveiled As ECB's Reuters "Trial Balloon" Strikes Again

In our concluding comments on the ECB's disjointed message yesterday, in which Draghi feebly tried to talk down the EUR, we said "And now that the market is supremely confused, we expect the ECB to lob the next Reuters trial balloon any moment to punish all those who keep buying the EUR." Less than one day later, this is precisely what happened.

The Truman Show Markets

"Fake news, fake economies (based on fake demand dependent on asset bubbles), fake markets (dependent on QE and low interest rates). It’s the Truman Show, folks."

Netflix Is Spending Twice As Much As Amazon On Content

To continue its growth, Netflix will have to spend some $8.7 billion in cash on new content, nearly $2 billion more than it did in 2016, and more than double what its nearest, and cash flow positive competitor, Amazon, is spending on new content.

Goldman's Clients Are Confused About Inflation: Here's Why

The US inflation outlook and its equity investment implications were key topics of discussion during recent visits with clients in Boston, Chicago, and New York. Looking forward, will the rate of inflation in 2018: (a) decelerate, (b) accelerate, or (c) stay about the same? The answer depends on the information source.

Even Schwab Is Warning Retail Clients Of "Danger Signs Rising"

"A solid earnings season should contribute to a continuation of the bull market in stocks. Dangers are lurking, however, and the possibility of a decent-sized pullback has grown over the past couple of months, in light of monetary policy and geopolitical uncertainties. "

Breaking Down The Bull Market Thesis

"Considering that forward estimates are generally overstated by 33% on average, the risk is high of disappointment... The risk for investors is “willful blindness” that builds when complacency reaches extremes. It is worth remembering that the bullish mantra we hear today is much the same as it was in both 1999 and 2007."

Coming Apart: The Imperial City At The Brink

"...here in the imperial city in Washington DC, is that it is absolutely hollowed out... it is incapable of offering anything to its own people, the American people ... I think we have reached a point where there is no possibility of revival within the current system that exists. The current system is set upon ... is determined to eat itself out in a kind of civil war that is coming, and at the end of that, it will be done, will be finished..."

Stockman: Orange Is The New Black (Swan)

"Black swans are supposedly unexpected, stealthy and come of a sudden. But not this one — it is bright orange, and in your face day and night... I refer to the Donald, of course, and the fact that he is truly the Great Disrupter."