Investor Sentiment

Tumbling Dollar Sends USDJPY Under 100, Oil Over $46 As Gold Spikes; Futures Flat

Overnight, John Williams' latest uberdovish paper "Monetary Policy in a Low R-star World", which we profiled yesterday, and which suggests lower rates for far longer, made the rounds and has led to a steep 0.8% drop in the Bloomberg Dollar spot Index, which sank to its weakest since June while the yen strengthened 1.2 percent, slipping briefly below 100 against the greenback for the first time since June 24, pushing oil and gold higher, and Asian shares lower.

Global Stocks Rise, US Futures Near All Time Highs As Flood Into Emerging Markets Continues

European shares advanced, with gains in automakers  helping Germany’s benchmark DAX Index turn positive for the year for the first time. Stocks rose around the world, led by emerging-markets, as oil climbed further after its best week since April and traders pushed back bets on higher U.S. interest rates. S&P futures advance and Asian stocks little changed as rising oil prices bolstered investor sentiment.

Italy Races To Arrange €5 Billion Bailout For Monte Paschi Before Friday's Stress Test

Italy is scrambling to secure a privately-backed bailout of Monte dei Paschi di Siena, the most exposed of the country’s troubled lenders, including a plan to raise €5bn of fresh capital so as to avert nationalisation, the FT reports. The bank needs to obtain some €5 bilion in capital ahead of Friday's stress test, or else a dire "contagion" scenario could unfold that could impair not only all Italian banks, but promptly spread first to France and then to Germany...

"Are Stocks Cheap Or Expensive" - Here Are 20 Answers

"Is the S&P 500 cheap or expensive" - In trying to answer that question, BofA does the right thing and instead of giving a blanket statement, it looks at the 20 most important valuation measures, and finds that the market is overvalued, in some cases dramatically, according to 18 of of the 20 most popular metrics.

Mattress Money & Need-For-Yield: "We Saw This In 2007"

“Cash On The Sidelines.” is the age old excuse why the current “bull market” rally is set to continue into the indefinite future. The ongoing belief is that at any moment investors are suddenly going to empty bank accounts and pour it into the markets. However, the reality is if they haven’t done it by now after 3-consecutive rounds of Q.E. in the U.S., a 200% advance in the markets, and now global Q.E., exactly what will that catalyst be? However, Clifford Asness summed up the problem with this myth the best and is worth repeating...

US Futures Dip, European Stocks Slide After EU Court Slams Italian Bank Bailout Plans

After a head-scratching S&P500 rally - which not even Goldman has been able to justify - pushed stocks to new all time highs with seemingly daily record highs regardless of fundamentals or geopolitical troubles, overnight US equity futures dipped modestly, tracking weak European stocks as demand for safe haven assets including U.S. Treasuries and gold rises. Asian stocks outside Japan fall. Crude oil trades near $45 a barrel. 

Citi Is Stunned How Quickly The "Extraordinary Political Backdrop" Is Deteriorating

"These developments point to a marked increase in political risks in systemically-significant countries. At the start of the year, we flagged many of these as  well as introducing our thesis that rising Geopolitical Risks, accompanied by rising "Vox Populi" risks such as Brexit and changing US politics, were at risk of converging in new and powerful ways. Even so, we did not anticipate quite how many would transpire, let alone within such a compressed timeframe."

Turkish Central Bank Pledges "Unlimited Liquidity" On Bank Run Fears: Wall Street's Take

On Friday, the Turkish Lira suffered its biggest daily drop in 8 years, and added to its woes after having lost more than 40% of its value since the end of 2012. So in an attempt to stabilize the financial system, earlier today, in a terse, 7-bullet statement, Turkey’s central bank vowed to provide "unlimited liquidity" to banks, while Deputy Prime Minister Simsek said nation’s macroeconomic foundations remain “solid.” Meanwhile, Wall Street's analysts chimed in on what they expect to happen in the coming days.

The Four Things That Keep Citi Clients Up At Night

The investment community remains in a quandary as the S&P 500 hits new highs alongside fund managers struggling with portfolio performance. Three questions tend to be uppermost in their minds – 1) can “defensives” keep rallying, 2) how can investors be “bearish” if the S&P 500 touches record levels and 3) what if Trump wins? An added concern - or perhaps hope - is whether there a possibility of even higher P/E ratios if US bond yields are suppressed by negative yields elsewhere?

Analyst Slams Tesla's Bid For SolarCity: "This Proposed Acquisition Suggests SCTY Is Worth Little Value"

"we curiously wonder out loud: if Tesla can acquire SolarCity, amid what we believe are signs of an existential crisis, then – if TSLA were to ever get into trouble – could taxpayers possibly be on the hook (i.e., could SpaceX, funded by US taxpayers, follow the same dubious corp. governance norms exhibited by TSLA/SCTY & bail out TSLA)? While we have neither the answer, nor the legal savvy, we do believe this proposed acquisition suggests SCTY is worth little value"

Stocks, Sterling Rise As "Brexit" Fears Forgotten; Dollar Drops Ahead Of Yellen Speech

Tuesday's overnight price action has been a continuation of yesterday's Brexit relief rally, as investors focused on the two latest polls favorable to Remain in Thursday's referendum (while ignoring the YouGov poll which gave Leave a small lead), and hoping the doom and gloom by George Soros will convince the undecideds to vote against Leaving. As a result, global stocks continued their advance while pound extending the biggest rally since 2008.

Soaring Brexit Fears Spark Global Flight To Safety, Send 10 Year Bunds Tumbling Below 0%

The UK EU referendum is suddenly totally dominant in financial markets. The increased focus comes as the leave campaign has gathered steam as 4 polls yesterday afternoon/evening put the 'leave' campaign ahead. As a result of the continued global scramble for safety, German 10Y bunds finally dropped below 0% for the first time ever, while global risk assets are red around the globe.