Investor Sentiment

Tyler Durden's picture

Morgan Stanley: "We Struggle To Remember When Bearish Sentiment Was As Widespread As Today"





"... the growing perception that central banks are moving away from QE-style programmes to negative interest rates is less supportive for equities, in our opinion. With little evidence so far that negative rates boost aggregate economic activity, the risk is that this policy tool increasingly resembles a more blatant form of 'beggar thy neighbour' currency devaluation. A shift towards a more nationalistic and perhaps less coordinated global policy response could signal a quickening in the pace of fiat currency debasement and augurs badly for risk appetite, in our view."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Rally Hobbled As Ugly China Reality Replaces Japan NIRP Euphoria; Oil Rebound Fizzles





It didn't take much to fizzle Friday's Japan NIRP-driven euphoria, when first ugly Chinese manufacturing (and service) PMI data reminded the world just what the bull in the China shop is leading to a 1.8% Shanghai drop on the first day of February. Then it was about oil once more when Goldman itself said not to expect any crude production cuts in the near future. Finally throw in some very cautious words by the sellside what Japan's act of NIRP desperation means, and it becomes clear why stocks on both sides of the pond are down, why crude is not far behind, and why gold continues to rise.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Citi On Why Negative Rates Are Like Potato Chips: "No One Can Have Just One"





"Experience in other countries that have entered into this territory should sober you up on the likely economic and inflation impact. No country that has gone into negative rates has experienced major shifts in its growth and inflation profile – minor, yes; major, no. As a consequence every dip into negative rates has been followed by additional moves."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"Don't Overstay Your Welcome In This Bounce": JP Morgan Crushes Last Week's Exuberance





"Our take was that perhaps up to half of the earlier decline could be unwound. We believe, though, that one should not overstay one’s welcome in the bounce. The medium-term risk-reward for equities has worsened significantly, in our view, and the risk of a downside economic scenario is far from adequately priced in."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Market Stubbornly Refuses To Believe A Crash May Be Coming: Here's Why





The fabric of the market is showing signs of fracturing, as 9 years of declining policy rates and 6 years of QEs failed to kick-off growth, while, as Fasanara Capital's Francesco Filia notes, further easing has a visibly decreasing marginal effectiveness. It is end-of-cycle-type policymaking and market responsiveness and while some markets and sentiment reflect the concerns of a tail-risk-like collapse, stocks remain dissonant in the medium-term to the ongoing rioting against monetary activism and market manipulation by global Central Banks.

 
Sprott Money's picture

Something Broke In The U.S. Silver Market





By that, I mean the normal supply and demand forces no longer make sense.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Something Just Broke In The U.S. Silver Market





After looking over all the figures, it seems as if something broke in the U.S. Silver Market this year. By that, we mean the normal supply and demand forces no longer make sense.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

After Vicious Rollercoaster Session, Global Stocks Flat, US Futures Stage Tepid Rebound In Illiquid Chaos





After yesterday's rollercoaster session in both the S&P and in oil, where initially stocks soared alongside oil, only to promptly tumble as stops were taken out and as the refiners' inventory strategy was exposed after the DOE's latest weekly numbers were released, it has been a quieter session so far, though maybe not for China where stocks jumped at the open only to fizzle and close at the lows in what appears to be ever less intervention by the market manipulating "National Team."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Good News: Gold Speculators Haven't Been This Gloomy In 13 Years





Gold sentiment may finally be getting bearish enough to support a durable bottom.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Global Stocks Start Off December With A Bang, US Equity Futures Rebound; Yuan Drops





There was something for everyone in last night's much anticipated Chinese PMI data, with the official number sliding to the lowest in over 3 years, suggesting the PBOC will need to do more stimulus and is thus bullish, while the unoffocial Caixin print rising to the highest since June, suggesting whatever the PBOC is doing is working, and is also bullish. Not unexpectedly, global stocks decided to take the bullish way out, and have risen across the globe led by Asia, where stocks rose as much as 1.8%, Europe also green and US equity futures up 10 points as of this writing.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Can The Oil Industry Really Handle This Much Debt?





With at least 83 percent of these companies' operating cash being spent on debt repayments - the highest on record - the renewed collapse in crude oil prices of the last month has renewed focus on the tidal wave of defaults that the credit market is increasingly pricing in (and stocks not).

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Weekend Reading: Will They, Or Won't They?





Will they, won't they, should they or shouldn't they? Those are the questions being hotly contested by the mainstream media on a daily basis. Of course, the reality is the Federal Reserve faces the huge obstacle of weak global growth and deflationary pressures which could very well keep them on hold well into 2016. The potential loss of credibility in the Fed by the markets could be the bigger issue to be concerned with. For now, we wait.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Weekend Reading: Copious Contemplations





"After many years of ultra-accommodative polices, it is clear that ongoing interventions have failed to boost actual economic growth and only exacerbated the destruction of the middle class. It is clear that employment growth has only been a function of population growth, as witnessed by the ongoing decline in the labor-force participation rates and the surging levels of individuals that have fallen out of the work-force. While we will continue to operate to foster maximum employment and price stability, the reality is that the economy overall remains far to weak to sustain higher interest rates or any tightening of monetary policy."  

 
Tyler Durden's picture

6 Reasons To Be Bullish (Or Not) On Stocks





While there are certainly reasons to be "hopeful" that stocks will continue to rise into the future, "hope" has rarely been a fruitful investment strategy longer term. Therefore, let's analyze each of the optimist's arguments from both perspectives to eliminate "confirmation bias." 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

If This Really Is "1998 All Over Again", Oil Is About To Soar





If this is indeed a rerun of the post-LTCM/pre first tech bubble days, then oil is about to soar by 150%

 
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