Investor Sentiment

Futures Decline, Europe Slumps After German Industrial Orders Collapse

After a turbulent overnight session on Monday morning, this morning traders settle at their desks to find a relatively calmer environment, with US equity futures down 0.2% to 2,371.75, while European stocks fell for a third consecutive day, and Asian markets which closed mixed (China up, Nikkei down, MXAP up 0.2%).

A Look Back At 1999!

"If this market rally seems eerily familiar, it’s because it is. In fact, the backdrop of the rally reminds me much of what was happening in 1999...If you were around then, you will remember."

BofA Throws In The Cautionary Towel: Raises S&P Price Target From 2,300 To 2,450

Overnight, Bank of America's Savita Subramanyan became the first sellside strategist in recent weeks to throw in the cautionary towel, and raised the bank's year-end S&P price target from 2,300 to 2,450 to "reflect an increasing likelihood that we are entering the typical later stages of a bull market, during which fundamentals typically take a back seat to sentiment and technicals."

Number Of Distressed US Retailers Highest Since The Great Recession

"Moody's-rated US retailers rated Caa or Ca today make up just over 13% of our total rated retail portfolio, which is the highest level since the Great Recession.  As they struggle to survive, distressed retailers can take more desperate measures, including highly promotional pricing that can border on irrational.  This leaves stronger firms with the choice of either competing in a race to the bottom, or giving up sales in order to preserve margin."

European Rally Fizzles, S&P Futures Turn Red As USDJPY Slides, Bunds Strongly Bid

What started off in familiar fashion, with Asian stocks rising, and Europe hitting multi-month highs and US futures in record territory has stumbled in recent minutes following a continued rush for safety in short-dated German Bunds (the 2Y is now trading at -0.92%) and ongoing selling in the USDJPY, which has pushed Stoxx 600 back to unchanged, and S&P futures to modestly red for the session.

For BlackRock, This Is The Red Flag Among Record Low Volatility

“Hiding political risk is not reflected in markets. People are not that nervous, and there are things that could go wrong, particularly when you think about all of the political risks. That adds to the argument for having gold in a portfolio.”

Some Good News For Active Managers: First Weekly Mutual Fund Inflow In 12 Months

Finally some good news for active managers. After one year of consecutive outflows, last week saw the first inflows into long-only equity mutual funds going back to last February, as according to BofA there finally was a $0.5 billion cash inflow, "a sign of rising investor confidence & broadening participation in equity rally."

50% Correction Is Impossible! Really?

"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as they have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."

– Dr. Irving Fisher, Economist at Yale University 1929