Investor Sentiment

The Problem With Forecasts

Talk about conflicted. Just ask yourself WHY Wall Street spends BILLIONS of dollars each year in marketing and advertising trying to keep you invested at all times. Since optimism is what sells products, it is not surprising, as we head into 2017, to see Wall Street’s average expectation ratcheted up another 4.7% this year.

2016 Year-End Bull/Bear Debate

As we head into 2017, trying to predict the markets is often quite pointless. The risk for investors is “willful blindness” that builds when complacency reaches extremes. It is worth remembering that the bullish mantra we hear today is much the same as it was in both 1999 and 2007. We don’t need to remind you what happened next.

Bullish Or Bearish - This Is The Real Risk

"As a money manager, I am currently long the stock market. I must be, or I potentially suffer career risk. However, my job is not only to make money for my clients, but also to preserve their gains, and investment capital, as much as possible... The real risk to investors is not “missing out” on a further rise in the markets, but catching the bulk of the reversion that will wipe out most of the gains from the previous advance."

3 Things: Exuberance, Small Caps, & 6% Realities

"...there is a long way to go between President-elect taking office, drafting bills and getting them passed. There is even a further period of time before any actions actually passed by the Trump administration actually create perceivable effects within the broader economy. In the meantime, there are many concerns, from a technical perspective, that must be recognized within the current market environment."

October Was The Worst Month For Hedge Funds Yet This Year

The breadth of redemption pressure in October was the industry’s largest in 2016 with 61% of reporting funds estimated to have net outflow during the month. Essentially, flows in October were poor not necessarily because investors redeemed from the industry, "but no one is really allocating with any enthusiasm."

Europe Votes To Suspend Turkey EU Accession Talks, Sending Lira Crashing To Record Low Despite Unexpected Rate Hike

The market barely had time to respond to today's surprising rate hike by the Turkish central bank, when an even more unexpected development took place in the European Parliament which voted overwhelmingly to temporarily freeze talks on Turkey’s bid to join the European Union, citing deteriorating human rights and democratic standards under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s rule.

"The Shoe Has Dropped" - Low Vol ETF Sees Largest Outflow On Record

After last week's victory by Donald Trump which unleashed the great Trumpflation rally, the not so low vol went off the charts, and "the shoe officially dropped" because as Bloomberg notes, the "Low Vol" iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol EAFE ETF saw a record one-day outflow on Wednesday.

'Italeave' Looms As Italian Crisis Indicator Spikes To Record High After Trump Win

"The US election will help all those who have not had the courage to come out and say 'I will vote No'," proclaimed one of Italian PM Renzi's opponents as The FT reports the centre-left prime minister’s referendum on change is threatened by the global populist wave. Even before the US election, he faced a struggle to secure victory in the referendum, with most polls tilting in favor of voting 'No', albeit with many undecided voters, but opponents claim "many undecided voters in the polling booth will say ‘No No No’, just like Trump voters."