Iraq

Cutting Through The Crap: The Ultimate Clinton-Trump Policy Cheatsheet

Amid the sound and fury of the presidential campaigns, one thing that is crucially unimportant appears to be policies... but in case you need to actually understand the actual differences between 'the crook' and 'hitler' actually are, HSBC has provided a handy cheatsheet...

Oil Erases 'Iran Rumor' Rally Following Inventory Data As Angola Supply Soars

Despite denials, yesterday's oil price rally sustained on the back of rumors that Iran was willing to support a production freeze. However, an unexpected crude build overnight from API combined with news that Angola has overtaken Saudi Arabia as the number 1 seller of oil to China (more supply at the margin) has sunk WTI Cride back to $47 - erasing all of yesterday's gains...

WTI Slides After Biggest Inventory Build In 4 Months

Amid the volatility of crude prices, inventory levels, and headline hockey; API printed a surprisingly large 4.464mm crude build (against expectations of a 850k draw). Having spiked early in the day on Iran rumors (and failed to fall on denials), WTI kneejerked lower after the API data showed the biggest crude build in over 4 months (and a bigger than expected build at Cushing).

Stocks Creep Higher As Dollar Resumes Falling, Oil Slides For Second Day

While the summer doldrums continue, with little market-moving newsflow overnight and zombified volumes, US futures crept higher and European shares rose after EU PMIs printed modestly better than expected, while a return to dollar weakness pushed emerging markets higher, even if it failed to boost oil which as we noted last night was downgraded by Goldman on various fundamental reasons.

Follow The Money Trail For Source Of "Russian Threat" Paranoia

How much longer will the citizens of the world put up with a situation in which warmongers with ties to the military-industrial complex are allowed to stoke up international tensions? The next time you read or hear someone issue stark warnings about the “Russian threat” - and why NATO needs to hike its spending to deal with it - just follow the money trail. It’s likely to be revealing.

Goldman Calls It For Oil: "OPEC Freeze Insufficient To Support Prices; The Price Rally Should Stall"

"Supply continues to feature the cross currents of rising low-cost supply, declining high-cost production, and new project ramp up. In fact, marginally more bearish data recently than we had assumed suggests in our view that the recent price rally should stall... While discussions of an OPEC freeze and a weakening dollar have been catalysts for the sharp reversal in oil prices this month, we believe neither will be sufficient to support prices much further"

Frontrunning: August 22

  • Oil falls as China fuel exports jump, U.S. rigs rise (Reuters)
  • Fischer Signals 2016 Rate Hike With Economy Nearing Fed Goals (BBG)
  • Show of European unity: Merkel, Hollande, Renzi meet to discuss gameplan (Reuters)
  • Rainy Rio wraps up challenging Games on upbeat tropical note (Reuters)
  • Japan's Abe Plays Super Mario in Rio to Promote 2020 Tokyo Games (BBG)
  • Donald Trump the Mortgage Broker Was in Trouble From Moment One (BBG)

US Futures Fall, European Stocks Rise As Stronger Dollar Sends Oil Lower

European stocks rose and US S&P futures fell after the dollar strengthened following the latest hawkish comments from Fed vice-chair Stanley Fischer signalled that a 2016 rate hike is still being considered and again boosted speculation that US rates will rise this year. The rising dollar pressured commodities and notably oil, which dropped 2% breaking a 7 days stretch of increases; emerging markets retreated. 

OPEC Ignites Biggest Short Squeeze In History: Hedge Funds Cut Oil Shorts By Most On Record

The past week saw the biggest crude oil short squeeze on record as money managers cut bets on falling prices by the most ever.  Hedge funds trimmed their short position in WTI by 56,907 futures and options during the week ended Aug. 16, the most in data going back to 2006. As a result WTI soared nearly 10% in the past week, pushing it into a bull market just three weeks after it tumbled into a bear market.