Iraq

This week will see the end of August trading and September is, along with November, one of the strongest months to own gold. This is seen in the charts showing gold’s monthly performance over different time frames - 1975 to 2011, 2000 to 2011 and our Bloomberg Gold Seasonality table  from 2003 to 2013 (10 years is the maximum that can be used).

Thackray's 2011 Investor's Guide notes that the optimal period to own gold bullion is from July 12 to October 9. During the past 25 periods, gold bullion has outperformed the S&P 500 Index by 4.7%.

The Germans "haven't considered any military participation... and are still not doing so." The Brits unexpectedly voted 'not' to join Obama in an attack on Syria , with Cameron adding that he didn't think "it's a question of having to aplogize" to Obama. But Obama can rest assured as the French remains undeterred. After France refused to join the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, but was quickly aided by the US in the military intervention against Islamist militants in Mali earlier this year, Hollande is vehement of the need to "punish" Damascus, "France will participate. It is ready." Sounds like a resounding 'we're in,' right? It seems Hollande is dead set on lower French unemployment... by making every jobless person a soldier in Syria (packing at least one backup white flag of surrender). But, don't get too excited since, with lukewarm public support, Hollande has said he will summon the French parliament to vote on the debate... on September 4th (no rush...).

Events Are Moving Quickly In Syria … Here’s What You Need to Know

Moments ago the UK House of Commons, in a razor thin vote, rejected the Cameron proposal for military action in Syria with a vote 285 to 272. Cameron promptly said he would respect the will of the House of Commons and UK Defense Secretary Phillip Hammond confirmed there would be no UK military intervention in Syria. Incidentally, this may have been the best outcome for an already humiliated British premier who will avoid being dragged into an unpopular war having both sided with his greatest ally, the US, and also relented and listened to the voice of the people. More importantly, the "people" in the UK actually had a voice, which is more than can so far be said about developments in the US. And speaking of the US, the NYT reports that even as the Syrian war "option" is slowly being shut out for staunch US allies (except for France of course), that Obama is "willing to move ahead with a limited military strike on Syria even while allies like Britain are debating whether to join the effort [ZH: and have now voted against it] and without an endorsement from the United Nations Security Council" citing senior administration officials.

The rise of Tomahawk force began in 1983 during the Reagan buildup, but the demise of the Evil Empire did not slow down its development one bit. By the end of the century the United States had about 150 surface ships and attack submarines that could launch these deadly cruise missiles and an inventory of nearly 5,000 missiles. Tomahawks have a range of seven hundred miles. This means that from their offshore platforms they can reach three-fourths of the world’s population. And during the last two decades they have been used in just this “stand-off” manner against targets in Iraq, Bosnia, Afghanistan, Sudan, Libya, and others—teaching presidents that they could meddle freely without getting bloodied.

Some took a prior report the that the "developed" nations would use Cyprus as a warplane strike base just as a leaked memo predicted in 2011, skeptically. Today we finally got official confirmation from that Britain that it is sending six RAF Typhoon jets to Cyprus "as a defensive measure amid growing tensions over Syria and talks of Western military intervention." It's defensive in case Syria launches an airborne assault of the UK we take it? And just as expected, with the US already piling up naval assets in both the Mediterranean and the Arabian Sea, Russia is responding in kind, and has dispatched a submarine and a cruiser to the Mediterranean. Finally, keeping things exciting, China reiterated that the West should stay the hell out.

Those curious if the Indian Rupee cratered once again in overnight trading will be disappointed: following the previously reported intervention by the RBI in which it would provide US dollars only to crude companies, the currency rose strongly at the open only to fade and trade rangebound before closing in the mid 67 range. In other words, much more will be needed by the central bank to stabilize the currency, the markets and the economy. The main overnight story, however, remains the Syrian conflict and market reactions to it. Stocks traded higher in Europe early today, with credit spreads tightening as market participants scaled back expectations of an imminent strike on Syria after US Defense Secretary Hagel said that the US will act on Syria only with international collaboration. Of note, the G-20 is set to take place next week where Syria is widely expected to be the hot topic for discussion among global world leaders. But while futures ramped in early trade following a spike in the USDJPY over 98, they have since retraced most of their upside, and crude is back to nearly unchanged.

How do markets (US equities, Gold, Crude Oil, and the USD) react around US military conflicts...? Citi shows what happened before-and-after the Gulf War, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya... and why Syria is arguably more complex than these previous conflicts...

French President François Hollande jumped straight in declaring in more Sarkozy-style fashion than ex-President Sarkozy himself that he would attack Syria. That was even before the UN investigators had been shot at by some unidentified people.

While most of the country is obsessing over Miley Cyrus, the Obama administration is preparing a military attack against Syria which has the potential of starting World War 3.  In fact, it is being reported that cruise missile strikes could begin "as early as Thursday".  The Obama administration is pledging that the strikes will be "limited", but what happens when the Syrians fight back?  What happens if they sink a U.S. naval vessel or they have agents start hitting targets inside the United States?  Then we would have a full-blown war on our hands. Could this be the beginning of a chain of events that could eventually lead to a massive global conflict with Russia and China on one side and the United States on the other?  Of course it will not happen immediately, but we fear that what is happening now is setting the stage for some really bad things... Let us hope that cooler heads prevail before things spin totally out of control.

Since the Vietnam War, the United States has engaged in several military interventions. As the West looks ready to act against Syria, accused of using chemical weapons against its own citizens, WaPo presents 10 instances when America has intervened, sometimes without authorization from the United Nations.

Debunking U.S. Claims about UN Weapons Inspections In Syria

If Syria is invaded by the West, then we should be getting ready for a hike in the price of Brent that some say may reach a much as $150 since it will escalate into a regional problem and affect supplies coming out of Iraq.

At a time when we claim to be seeking a permanent solution to the circular situation which exists between Israel and Palestine (Palestinians), it is incongruous to reality that we fail to see what is happening all around the Middle East.  The old United Arab Republic, Syria and Egypt, have over 90 million people divided and fighting, whether in open civil war or through socioeconomic confrontation.  It has less to do with political regimes, and so-called dictatorships such as those of Mubarak and Assad, and more to do with the existing distribution of wealth and power.  And equity may or may not come through dialogue (hopefully) or civil struggle (unfortunately).  

With the 22 Arab League member stopping well short of endorsing outside military action - though urging the UN to agree on 'deterrent' measures - the burden of proof for attacking the Assad regime remains firmly on the shoulders of the US. As as the WaPo reports that the administration is planning to release evidence possibly as soon as Thursday, that it will say proves that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad bears responsibility for what U.S. officials have called an “undeniable” chemical attack that killed hundreds on the outskirts of the Syrian capital.