Irrational Exuberance

Knave Dave's picture

After years of trying to create a "wealth effect", the Federal Reserve is slowly dialing down its special-effects machine. Yet, this week, the stock market provided dot-com-era proof of completely iirrational exuberance -- the kind of stupid stuff that happens when cheap money follows free money.

The End Game

"..the debt problem is so pervasive, there is only way one forward - inflate... They will do anything (and everything) to ensure the financial system doesn’t implode on itself... They will keep printing until the bond market takes the keys away."

What Happens When The Fed Warns The Market Is Overvalued

While investors hang on every dovish word bluffed from a venerable Fed speaker's mouth, the cognitive dissonance when something negative is uttered is stunning. Since Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" moment, asset-gatherers and commission-takers have advised ignoring Fedspeak on stocks... historically, that was a mistake for investors.

What Could Possibly Go Wrong? - Why This Time Is Not Different

In the 1990s, stocks continued to rise relentlessly for years, even after then Fed Chair Greenspan warned of irrational exuberance in late 1996.  Last decade, the rally in home prices continued as ever more people appeared convinced that home prices never fall.  This time around, we are eight years into a bull market. As in those times, investors have all but given up betting against conventional wisdom...but this time is not different...

El-Erian Warns Of America's CONfidence Economy

Financial markets seem convinced that the recent surge in business and consumer confidence in the US economy will soon be reflected in “hard” data, such as GDP growth, business investment, consumption, and wages. But economists and policymakers are not so sure. (To some outside the US, it is an assumption that sometimes looks a lot like blind faith.)

The "Super Bowl Party Conversation" Indicator

"The party this weekend was an example of the third stage. Wives were walking around with freshly injected lips and botoxed faces. Men were brandishing new Rolex watches while bragging about their latest acquisitions. I now know more about their personal stock portfolios than I do about their children’s latest successes."