Irrational Exuberance

Tyler Durden's picture

The Inevitable Failure of Mechanistic Monetary Policy





Our current faith in central banks' ability to "make the economy all better, all the time" is horrendously misplaced.

 
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The Committee To Destroy The World





Now we can see the real tragedy of negative interest rates: they not only have the perverse effect of reversing the flow of time, but they demonstrate that borrowers are not acting with the good faith incentives normally associated with someone who needs money. Rather than paying forward, borrowers are paying backwards because they are effectively trying to return something they don’t want. Such an arrangement renders it impossible for an economy to grow. By destroying the temporal and moral structure of money, negative interest rates destroy the economy. When tomorrow cannot be paid, the current regime must fail. The only question to be determined is the form that failure will assume. This may sound like philosophy but it is cold, hard reality.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Just One Chart





If you ever doubted that bad news is good news... have faith!

 
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SocGen Asks The $4.5 Trillion Question





"Will The Fed Allow Irrational Exuberance, Season 2?"

 
Tyler Durden's picture

China Warns Against Irrational Exuberance





As Chinese stocks rise for an eigth straight day hitting their highest levels since the crisis, China's securities regulator sees signs of froth and warns investors against adopting a foolish mentality. 

 
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Even Ed Yardeni Admits "This Is Not Investing... The Markets Are All Rigged"





"This is not investing," exclaims Ed Yardeni in this brief clip, "it is all about central bankers... these markets are all rigged." That is not a criticism he notes, "I just say that factually... I love these central bankers, they've been very good to the stock market." The clip is then followed by a defense of this pumping by central banks, because "we are a 401(k) society." Which apparently ignores the whole "massive inequality gap" issue that is staring America right in the eyes... But for now stocks are up so "shut up and enjoy it" as Larry Kudlow said yesterday.

 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Indeed This Time Is Different: Because It’s Far Worse





Suddenly the narrative that “everything is awesome” is showing to not be as “awesome” as it was first proclaimed. Merely a few months have passed since the ending of QE and praises of awesomeness everywhere are morphing into questions more akin to “Oh no: not again!” And with that we are now watching those who pushed, pulled, and levitated that narrative scramble desperately to push another narrative back onto the stage that worked so many times before: “Every sell off over the last 6 years has shown to be a profitable buying opportunity.” i.e., Just buy the dip (JBTFD). Yet it would seem these dips; are far different.

 
StalingradandPoorski's picture

Irrational Exuberance 2.0





What people and central bankers do not understand, is that you can't devalue your way to prosperity. Absolutely nothing has changed since the last crisis. The same too big too fail banks have only gotten much bigger. The same people that were in charge leading into the crisis and during it, are the same people who are in charge of fixing it. New regulations were established to try and regulate the industry, but they will be proven to be ineffective. Why? Because the Volcker Rule and Dodd-Frank have had all the important elements removed, thanks to the massive lobbying power of the TBTF banks and the Fed.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Chart Of The Day: The Run For Nasdaq All-Time Highs





While there are many that suggest there is "no bubble" in the financial markets at the current time, a simple look at the extreme elevation of prices over the last couple of years is eerily reminiscent of the late 90's. Given the very elevated levels of investor bullishness, margin debt and complacency, there is more than sufficient evidence that a mean reverting event is highly likely at some point. However, at the moment, the perceived "risk" by investors is "missing the run" rather than the potential destruction of capital if something goes wrong. This is the opposite of what "risk" management is about...

 
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Fed Warns Equity Valuations "Appear Stretched", P/E Ratios Are "Somewhat Elevated"





Confirming last year's warning, The Fed's Monetary Policy Report has sent a broad message to the markets in what may be Yellen's Irrational Exuberance 2.0 moment: "Overall equity valuations by some conventional measures are somewhat higher than their historical average levels, and valuation metrics in some sectors continue to appear stretched relative to historical norms... price-to-earnings and price-to-sales ratios are somewhat elevated, suggesting some valuation pressures... with heightened leverage that is close to levels preceding the financial crisis."

 
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Why The Last Thing US Equity Markets Want Is Good Data





When, amid the plunging stock market in October as we neared the end of QE3, Jim Bullard said QE4 was possible; not only did markets then undertake the longest and most consistent streak of gains in history, he appears to have entirely changed the market's reaction function to data...

 
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Irrational Exuberance 3.0: Fed Again Warns Of A Build Up In "Valuation Pressures"





"The staff report noted valuation pressures in some asset markets. Such pressures were most notable in corporate debt markets, despite some easing in recent months. In addition, valuation pressures appear to be building in the CRE sector, as indicated by rising prices and the easing in lending standards on CRE loans. Finally, the increased role of bond and loan mutual funds, in conjunction with other factors, may have increased the risk that liquidity pressures could emerge in related markets if investor appetite for such assets wanes. The effects on the largest banking firms of the sharp decline in oil prices and developments in foreign exchange markets appeared limited, although other institutions with more concentrated exposures could face strains if oil prices remain at current levels for a prolonged period."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Empire Of Lies





We are living in an era where a single statement of truth will drive a pin into the global bubble of phantom assets and debts, and the lies spewed to justify those bubbles.

 
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