Irrational Exuberance

David Roche, former Head Of Morgan Stanley Research And Global Strategy, and currently president of Independent Strategy shares perspectives that should be read closely by any bull who believes that there is anything else to this market rally than pure liquidity driven euphoria riding on the coattails of the Fed's Quantitative Easing program. Deconstructing one by one all the myths that make up the arsenal of every pundit who appears on CNBC to talk up their book, Roche concludes "Of course, the insider game between financial institutions and the central banks can go further. But we do not want to be a part of it because it is unsustainable. It is as finite as QE." And QE is ending in one month, at about the same time when Greece will have to bailed out as its money will finally run out. About 30 days and counting.

"Judging from market valuations, I sense quite a gap between consensus market expectations and key political and economic realities, especially in the U.S. If the gap isn’t bridged by the validation of the more optimistic expectations, investors may well find that January’s global equity sell-off was just a precursor to a disappointing year for several asset classes, including stocks." - Mohamed El-Erian

Must read: UBS Macro Sales (note, this is likely not the UBS house view) calls for a peak in Emerging Markets. "To me this is our Bhutan Dry Docks moment. The economic argument supporting EM investment is valid -as I pointed out earlier, you can't create a bubble without something that initially supports investment flows - but its gone too far. When I read market commentary that suggest that
the Shanghai composite share index (see below) is now better value because price earnings ratios have come down from 100 to 50 its like déjà vu all over again. I wrote stuff like that back in 94 - just before the peak - just before the crash - just before the US rate cycle turned. I'm calling a top in emerging markets. Q1 2010 will still see massive money flow into the asset class as portfolio decisions are driven by last year's stellar performance and developed market pessimism, but starting in Q2 as Paul's setting change comes closer, it is time to call a top to the twin liquidity bubble of this cycle - traded commodities and emerging markets."

As the 'naughties' come to a somewhat anti-climactic close, it is important for those of us in the investment community to take stock of what new lessons have been learned, what immutable laws have been reinforced, and what changes in policy, strategy and execution need to occur in order to avoid a repeat of the booms and busts of the last decade.

Questions for our Esteemed Chairman ...

We present an independent perspective on the 2009 holiday shopping season courtesy of Abacus Advisors. “The discounters and off-price chains will continue to do well,” Alan Cohen of Abacus Investors says. “People will be shopping this Christmas, but they will be very cost-conscious and trading down. Instead of buying five items, they will buy three. Instead of buying an expensive item, they will go with a moderately priced one.” When all is said and done after the holidays, filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection may be the only option for many chains, Cohen added. Then again, maybe retailers can rely on Cramer's optimism that everyone is massively underestimating the unemployed consumer who has bet the house and the dog on those one hundred shares of Amazon.

Maybe, it just may be the total collapse in credibility and trust in
the US Federal Reserve and Treasury. I mean, come on. Have you heard the bullsh1t that they spouted in the news this morning? Quick Bloomberg scan:

Yellen Says Unclear If Use of Rates Can Stem Leverage (Update1) ...

How can it be that risk assets, notably common stocks, have been roaring ahead, presumably discounting a robust V-shaped economic recovery, while Treasury bonds are holding their own with a bull flattening bias, presumably rejecting the V-shaped hypothesis, instead discounting a U-shaped recovery as the base case, with a W-shaped outcome the dominant risk case?

Is giving the Fed more power like appointing the head of the Medellin drug cartel as drug tzar?

I believe monetary authorities are desperately trying to reflate the real economy by flooding the financial system with a tsunami of liquidity. Asset bubbles are being formed as we speak. Equity and commodity prices will head much higher but it remains to be seen whether higher asset prices will translate into higher real prices. Stay tuned, but in the meantime you might want to curb your enthusiasm and remain very alert as asset prices disconnect from fundamentals.

According to Joseph Stiglitz, "the weakness in the economy has helped the equity markets" which are now "irrationally exuberant."

There is no better representation of the ongoing irrational exuberance in capital markets than what has been happening with HY bond issuance. And the number indicates that many fixed income fund managers are staring at a lot of pain in the future: YTD there has been $100 billion issued in HY bonds, more than double the $49 billion issued in all of 2008. The biggest losers in all of this: restructuring shops who have been hiring senior bankers left and right to prepare for an onslaught of bankruptcies. Alas, with the majority of 5x+ leveraged dinosaurs extending maturities yet again compliments of "money that just has to be put to work" expect bankruptcies to be indefinitely delayed once more, never mind that the deteriorating underlying businesses generate less cashflow than ever and actual bond recoveries, when the inevitable bankruptcies finally do come, will be worse than single digits.

Irrational exuberance in High Yield shows no sign of abating: the loan-HY bond spread is down to 2009 tights: a mere 326 bps for the represented universe of credits. Last week HY bonds averaged 710 bps, while loans were are 383 bps. For rational types, now is the time to consider some long loan-short bond basis packages, at a 1.0x:1.85x ratio. Also the negative loan-HY basis in Sealy continues, now at about 500 bps: either the data there is really faulty or somehow that relationship makes sense... in some parallel universe.

One of the pieces we highlights in today's frontrunning was commentary by Susan Antilla at Bloomberg, discussing the perfect world in which the SEC wasn't merely yet another tentacle of the Wall Street syndicate, slapping wrists and issuing statements now and then to remind of its worthless existence. One of Susan's points brilliantly Swiftian in its simplicity: "Considering the blinding evidence of dysfunction, it occurs to me that enough is enough. Why not just shut the place down?" Many would say this is such an obvious observation that it has escaped the thinking of the majority. Yet when this market bubble pops, which it eventually will, unless the Fed can somehow find a way to bring the value of the dollar to 0, a furious America will once again demand the heads of those who were supposed to oversee the irrational exuberance in progress. At that point Mary's tenure will be over, yet the travesty that is the SEC will likely continue in some form. However, there is a chance for an earlier resolution. Judge Rakoff, who so far has been the critical voice of sanity in a corrupt world, may cross paths with Mary even before her ultimate downfall. And he is not happy with the "regulators"

The following excerpt from a commentary discussing the trading in Citadel Broadcasting loans is all you need to know about (i) market dynamics and (ii) why you probably have to be a schizophrenic to be trading in this market. "Any credits nearing events that could trigger a restructuring or that are heading into bankruptcy are going up, aided by investors chasing low dollar names."