Irrational Exuberance

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"Irrational Exuberance" Is Back... For The Third Time

Exhibit A.

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Irrational Exuberance Is Here: VIX Lowest Since July 2007 As Options Speculation Highest Since Dot Com Days

The VIX has just hit the lowest level since July of 2007 as Sentiment Trader reports that "speculation in the options market has spiked to its highest levels since the spring of 2000." The government's endorsed moral hazard policy has now lead to the worst of both the and the housing bubbles. There is nothing that can ever again default or lose money: Uncle Sam is there with your money to guarantee it. Ben Bernanke sees no bubble anywhere.

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Pimcos' El-Erian Warns About Irrational Exuberance, Sees January Sell-Off As Harbinger Of Things To Come

"Judging from market valuations, I sense quite a gap between consensus market expectations and key political and economic realities, especially in the U.S. If the gap isn’t bridged by the validation of the more optimistic expectations, investors may well find that January’s global equity sell-off was just a precursor to a disappointing year for several asset classes, including stocks." - Mohamed El-Erian

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Tavakoli On The AIG Bubble: Irrational Exuberance

"American International Group Inc.’s equity is currently worth zero, whatever manic depressive Mr. Market may say today. It is likely to remain zero based on AIG’s own analysis of its future over the next few years. In fact, its obligations to the U.S. Treasury would trade at a discount today. The only reason AIG’s stock should trade above zero today is if you believe crony capitalism will fund the birth of an AIG clone—in other words if you believe AIG’s future will be a rigged game."

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