22% of the Q1 earnings season (by market cap) is over, and anyone listening merely to soundbites and reading media headlines would likely think that stocks have soared as a result of a relentless parade of beats. One would be mistaken. In fact, as the chart below shows, there is something very wrong with this earnings season...
The Fed is clearly worried about the economy. Ben Bernanke's latest speeches aren't exactly inspiring. It is as if he thinks the rosy(ier) numbers are some prank being played upon him by the gods; that soon this will all be taken away. He is right. He admits he doesn't understand why the economy is the way it is. Reality doesn't fit his theory. ("It's supposed to work, dammit!") So, what do you do when you are the head of the world's biggest printing press, and don't know what else to do? Why QE3 of course.
Deals from last week tell me that we are are again in a credit bubble.
Every time we see oil prices go up we hear that it will cause inflation and/or the economy will go into the tank. The premise is wrong because that has never happened.
S&P futures have moved more than 20 points since 3:30. The first big move was on the back of a story that Greece really will commit to the whatever the EU demands. The second move was after China re-pledged to invest in Europe. IG17 is about 1.5 bps tighter than the wides of the day and is unchanged this morning. In Europe, Main is unchanged while stocks are up about 1% across the board. Even the 10 year bond which saw yields drop from 1.98% to a low of 1.92% are only back to 1.94%. Why? Sentiment seems overly bullish, overly complacent, and the credit markets are sending a warning sign to stocks about irrational exuberance.
In this very informative interview between The Browser and Peter Boettke, the professor of economics discusses the contributions made by the Austrian School, and explains the various nuances of the economic school by way of recent books by "Austrians." He also explains what we can learn from Mises and Hayek, and argues that economics is the sexiest subject.
A look at one of those "new ideas" to resolve the debt limit impasse. I think it is a No Sale.
Irrational Exuberance Is Here: VIX Lowest Since July 2007 As Options Speculation Highest Since Dot Com DaysSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 04/12/2010 09:58 -0400
The VIX has just hit the lowest level since July of 2007 as Sentiment Trader reports that "speculation in the options market has spiked to its highest levels since the spring of 2000." The government's endorsed moral hazard policy has now lead to the worst of both the dot.com and the housing bubbles. There is nothing that can ever again default or lose money: Uncle Sam is there with your money to guarantee it. Ben Bernanke sees no bubble anywhere.
Pimcos' El-Erian Warns About Irrational Exuberance, Sees January Sell-Off As Harbinger Of Things To ComeSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/03/2010 09:52 -0400
"Judging from market valuations, I sense quite a gap between consensus market expectations and key political and economic realities, especially in the U.S. If the gap isn’t bridged by the validation of the more optimistic expectations, investors may well find that January’s global equity sell-off was just a precursor to a disappointing year for several asset classes, including stocks." - Mohamed El-Erian
"American International Group Inc.’s equity is currently worth zero, whatever manic depressive Mr. Market may say today. It is likely to remain zero based on AIG’s own analysis of its future over the next few years. In fact, its obligations to the U.S. Treasury would trade at a discount today. The only reason AIG’s stock should trade above zero today is if you believe crony capitalism will fund the birth of an AIG clone—in other words if you believe AIG’s future will be a rigged game."