Israel

The record-breaking outflows in high-yield bonds are not the only indication that the U.S. economy could be on the verge of very hard times. Retail sales are extremely disappointing, mortgage applications are at a 14 year low and growing geopolitical storms around the world have investors spooked. For a long time now, we have been enjoying a period of relative economic stability even though our underlying economic fundamentals continue to get even worse. Unfortunately, there are now a bunch of signs that this period of relative stability is about to end. The following are 14 reasons why the U.S. economy's bubble of false prosperity may be about to burst...

Qatar, the world's richest nation per capita (and awkward home of US central command in The Middle East), has used its wealth to fund Hamas in the Gaza Strip, bankrolls (as we detailed here) Islamists fighting Syrian President Bashar Assad, and backed the Muslim Brotherhood and President Mohamed Morsi in Egypt - before he was deposed. As Bloomberg reports, they have additionally let other extremist groups raise money in Qatar, according to the U.S. Treasury Department - all in an effort to 'support' the gas pipelines that the tiny nation needs to maintain its uber-wealth. Qatar’s support for militants has angered its neighboring conservative monarchies... so, it is an intriguing shift that now, as Bloomberg reports, finds the terrorist-funding-nation mediating between Israel and Hamas to end the Gaza conflict.

Ferguson, Missouri:   What’s Really Going On ... And How Did We Get Here?

• Police fire tear gas, stun grenades at Missouri protesters (Reuters)
• Putin’s Pipeline Bypassing Ukraine at Risk Amid Conflict (BBG)
• Russia's Largest Oil Company Seeks $42 billion to Weather Sanctions (WSJ)
• Shells hit central Donetsk, Russian aid convoy heads towards border (Reuters)
• U.S. Tightens Sanctions, Putting More Russian Companies at Risk (BBG)
• How to Blindly Score 43% Profit Overnight in China Stocks (BBG)
• Tears guaranteed: San Diego Pension Dials Up the Risk to Combat a Shortfall (WSJ)
• Euro Recovery Halts as Germany Shrinks, France Stagnates (BBG)
• Billionaire Found in Middle of Bribery Case Avoids U.S. Probe (BBG)
• Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama 'Hug It Out' on Martha's Vineyard (WSJ)

The hammer finally hit for Europe when overnight both Germany and France reported Q2 GDP prints that missed expectations, the first actually contracting at a 0.2% rate with consensus looking for -0.1%, while France remained flat vs expectations for a tiny 0.1% rise. As a reminder, this GDP is the revised one, which already includes the estimated contribution of drugs and prostitution, suggesting the actual underlying economic growth is far worse than even reported. Then again, this is hardly surprising considering all the abysmal data out of Europe and the rest of the world in recent weeks, and with the Russian trade war sure to trim even more growth, look for all of Europe to join Italy in its first upcoming triple-dip recession in history.

This just happened...

1645ET *PALESTINIAN NEGOTIATOR SAYS TRUCE EXTENDED BY 5 DAYS
1659ET *THREE MORE GAZA ROCKETS HIT ISRAEL, ARMY SAYS
1729ET *IDF TOLD TO RESPOND TO PALESTINIAN CEASEFIRE BREACH: HAARETZ
1740ET *ISRAELI WARPLANES BOMBING GAZA: AL JAZEERA

For the record, Hamas denies responsibility for the rockets. We presume that "ceasefire" means something different in Gaza?

The financial Globalists at the Bank for International Settlements have a strategic plan, make no mistake.....................

• Obama says Missouri shooting death tragic, reflection needed (Reuters)
• U.S. Weighs Iraq Rescue Mission to Save Yazidis (WSJ)
• Maliki says Abadi's appointment as Iraqi PM 'has no value' (Reuters)
• Iran Joins U.S. in Backing Replacement for Iraq’s Maliki (BBG)
• Kurds Push Attack in North Iraq as Maliki Clings to Power (BBG)
• Obama Donors Embrace Corporate Inversions He Criticizes (BBG)
• Syrian Forces Advance on Aleppo, Rebels Fear Another Siege (WSJ)
• Israel, Palestinians pursue Gaza deal with ceasefire clock ticking (Reuters)
• Ebola Drug’s Success Bolsters Approach for Other Diseases (BBG)
• With Natural Gas Byproduct, Iran Sidesteps Sanctions (NYT)
• Kazakhs to Hoard Food as Putin Sanctions Rattle Alliance (BBG)

If a trader knew nothing about the growth, the debt, the inflation, the exporters vs. importers, the serial defaulters, currency manipulators, hot-money or conversely deflation fighters; simply grouping the nations of the world on whether they were 'friend' or 'foe' to the US would provide an odd highly correlated value perspective on the interest rates paid on 1yr and 10yr sovereign debt... It appears your status with the central bank cabal was more important than your ability to repay the loaned money?

Last Thursday's comments from NATO's Rasmussen on Russian incursions into Ukraine sent stocks reeling... and then the pre-announced end of Russia's military drill sent stocks soaring. All the while Treasuries oscillated in a relatively tight range, unmoved by equity's manic moves. Today, as Russian convoys sit 'aggressively' at the border, Israel plans new fight with Gaza as truce ends, and Iraq is escalating, stocks are fading back to last week's NATO levels (as the dollar, long-end bonds, and gold are all sliding).

• Gunshots, tear gas in riots over shooting of black Missouri teen (Reuters)
• Russia sends big aid convoy to Ukraine, West sounds warnings (Reuters)
• Maliki Bid to Block Successor Escalates Crisis in Iraq (BBG)
• Poor German data pushes euro toward 9-month lows against dollar (Reuters)
• Derivatives Reincarnate Boosting Debt Wagers in New Era  (BBG)
• Israel Says No Gaza Talks Progress as Hamas Warns on Truce (BBG)
• Traders brace for research crackdown as easy money dries up (Reuters)
• U.S. Bank Profits Near Record Levels (WSJ)
• Unproven Ebola Drugs Are Ethical to Use in Outbreak: WHO (BBG)
• Caesars’ CEO Loveman Says No Qualified Bidders for Revel (BBG)

If the global equity "markets" were in need of a sharp "horrible news is great news" boost overnight, it came courtesy of Germany's ZEW investor confidence survey, which printed at a stunning 8.6, a plunge from the 27.1 in July and far below the 17.0 expected - the lowest print since December 2012 -largely suggesting that a European triple-dip is all but assured. And if that wasn't enough, strong language from John Kerry, assured to fan the flames of geopolitical instability, came hours ago when the US SecState said even more Russian sanctions may be coming. And just to make sure the NY Fed trading desk has to come up with a new narrative is the latest development in the Russian "humanitarian convoy" saga, which as we reported last night, has departed Russia but which Ukraine is now refusing to allow into its country. All in all, it's is setting up to be another super bullish day in the rigged markets for which all that matters is... Tuesday.

"You give me this office, and in turn, my fears, doubts, insecurities, foibles, need for sleep, family life, vacations, leisure is gone. I am giving myself to you. The American people should have no patience for whatever is going through your head because you have a job to do. You don't make that decision unless you are prepared to make that sacrifice, that tradeoff. Those who make mistakes in the president's office make them because they haven't fully thought through the dimensions of that choice."

- Barack Hussein Obama

Despite the early volumeless lift, helped by USDJPY, it appears stock investors began to get the hint that the US economy (Stan Fischer), Iraq (coup), Ukraine (Russian will do it anyway), and Israel are not all fixed. Bonds rallied modestly early on ignoring the equity bounce and then as Europe closed (and a few Ukraine and Iraq headlines of reality hit), stocks leaked back off their highs. Treasuries end the day unchanged (5Y -1bps), Silver popped 0.75% back above $20, copper and oil modestly higher and gold down small to $1310. FX markets appeared quiet (USD ended practically unchanged) but EUR weakness was offset by CAD and SEK strength. S&P futures volume was 40% below average.

... Who America and Her Close Allies SUPPORT (the Terrorists, That Is) ...