Israel

The Pentagon tries to take over social media to prevent any memes which challenge any of the policies of Helicopter Ben, Turbo Timmy, O-Bomb-a or the rest of the boys ...

While we politely disagree with David Rosenberg on what is the ultimate flight to safety "security" (in our insolvent day and age perhaps the very word at the heart of capital markets needs to be changed), with him believing in bonds, predicated by a fear of an eventual deflationary crunch, while we ignore any instrument that is used a policy tool by the central planners and instead prefer precious metals, we always are impressed by his ability to synthesize reality in a few succinct bullet points (even if according to Eni's Recchi itself is irrelevant after saying that "Italy’s bond yields don’t reflect reality"). That is most certainly the case today when in his latest Breakfast with Dave letter to clients, Rosie summarizes the 7 reasons why "we should be worried."

One look at the most recent naval update maps shows that in addition to global insolvency (courtesy of the broke European dominoes and a potentially technically broke US), a UK on the verge of a parliamentary scandal courtesy of a media baron whose empire is crumbling, and not to mention yet another downward inflection point in the global economic slowdown courtesy of the end of QE2 and no replacement yet, market watchers may have to start factoring in geopolitical risk yet again. While the fact that Syria, Yemen, Egypt, Tunisia, and now Turkey, are ever more increasingly on edge is apparently something Mr. Market has managed to internalize, when it comes to geopolitics everyone stops to listen when renewed Iran-Israel rumblings reappear. Which may just be the case. As the most recently updated naval map from Stratfor demonstrates, the CVN 77 G.H.W. Bush has just entered the Persian Gulf, the first time a US aircraft carrier has passed through the Straits of Hormuz in months. What is also notable is that the LHD 5 Bataan amphibious warfare ship has just weighed anchor right next to Libya: this is odd since the coast of Tripoli had been left unattended for many weeks by US attack ships. And topping it all off is that a third aircraft carrier, the CVN 73, is sailing west from the South China seas, potentially with a target next to CVN 76 Ronald Reagan which is the second carrier in the Straits of Hormuz area. Three carriers in proximity to Iran would be extremely troubling, yet fit perfectly with the story of CIA veteran Robert Baer, the man played by George Clooney in Syriana, who as Al Jazeera reports, appeared on KPFK Los Angeles, warning that Israeli PM Netanyahu is "likely to ignite a war with Iran in the very near future." It gets worse: "Masters asked Baer why the US military is not mobilising to stop this war from happening. Baer responded that the military is opposed, as is former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, who used his influence to thwart an Israeli attack during the Bush and Obama administrations. But he's gone now and "there is a warning order inside the Pentagon" to prepare for war." The punchline: "There is almost "near certainty" that Netanyahu is "planning an attack [on Iran] ... and it will probably be in September before the vote on a Palestinian state. And he's also hoping to draw the United States into the conflict", Baer explained." For the betting public out there, an September CL call may not be the dumbest trade possible...

• Merkel's Migraine: The Man Who Wants Greece to Give Up the Euro (Spiegel)
• Up to 15 years needed to fix Greece: German president (Reuters)
• Taxes still a stumbling block in debt talks (Reuters)
• EU stance shifts on Greece default (FT, first in the WSJ)
• EU calls emergency meeting as crisis stalks Italy (Reuters)
• China Boosts Lead in Global Exports (WSJ)
• Italy's Market Regulator Imposes Measures To Curb Speculation (WSJ)
• NOTW reporters tried to access 9/11 phone data (Reuters)
• Trichet says debt is global, not European problem (Reuters)

Today for the first time, Iran's IRNA news agency reported that the country had fired two missiles with a range of 1,900 km, coupled with TV coverage, into the mouth of the Indian Ocean. As PressTV reports, "Commander of the Aerospace Division of Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Brigadier General Ali Hajizadeh said that the long-range missiles were fired in the Iranian calendar month of Bahman (January 21 to February 20). He said that the missiles, fired from central Iran towards the Indian Ocean, successfully hit its designated targets, IRNA reported Saturday. Hajizadeh said that Iran's missiles have a range of up to 2,000 kilometers, adding that “Iran has the ability to produce longer-ranged ones (missiles) but presently there is no need to produce them." The purpose of the test firing was all too clear: "Our desired targets and the country's threatening us are located well within the reach [of our missiles]," he said. In other words: any US-based invasion of Iran will most certainly see prompt retaliation against US national-interests in the region. This is especially concerning since the US currently has two aircraft carriers, amusingly the Bush and the Reagan, both sitting side by side at the straits of Hormuz, with LHD 4 boxer backing up the rear in a zone that is now quite explosive. Had these test firings been perceived by a provocation, and lately it appears that the US is actively seeking one, it may have been quite a mess.

According to Oxford Analytica, there are fifteen "Global Stress Points" ranging from medium to extreme high impact to the entire world. And hate to disappoint China Bears, it seems whatever problems China has, it is not the one that'll tank the world like the Dollar and Euro.

The latest target of Operation Anonymous, which following the dissolution of LulzSec is the last substantial non-amorphous hacker collective left out there, could lead to some substantialgeopolitical fallout. That is because the target of the just announced upcoming DDOS attack is none other than the Israeli Parliament, the Knesset, and while Israel has allegedly been happy to dispense hack attacks in the past, the onslaught on the Iranian nuclear power plant courtesy of the Stuxnet virus coming to mind, we doubt it will as happy to be seen on the receiving end of decentralized computer warfare. Either way, with the world focusing on Greece tomorrow, this development, and specifically what form of retaliation Israel adopts, will be yet another important factor to keep track of over the next 24 hours.

Luckily, the IMF does not bar candidates for being too thin, or too male...

After it became clear that one of the girls that soon to be former Congressman Wiener [sic] was texting is underage, not even Nancy Pelosi, who previously said it is perfectly ok in her esteemed opinion for Tony to represent the people of New York, she has now done an about face and is calling for the man heading Weinergate to resign. Expect Weiner [non sic] to tender his resignation over the next 48 hours.

Is history repeating itself in Africa?

There is a great deal of uncertainty among investors about what the future of the U.S. economy may look like – so I decided to take a stab at what’s likely to happen over the next 20 years. That's enough time for a child to grow up and mature, and it's long enough for major trends to develop and make themselves felt. I’ll confine myself to areas that are, as the benighted Rumsfeld might have observed, “known unknowns.” I don’t want to deal with possibilities of the deus ex machina sort. So we’ll rule out natural events like a super-volcano eruption, an asteroid strike, a new ice age, global warming, and the like. Although all these things absolutely will occur sometime in the future, the timing is very uncertain – at least from the perspective of one human lifespan. It’s pointless dealing with geological time and astronomical probability here. And, more important, there’s absolutely nothing we can do about such things. So let’s limit ourselves to the possibilities presented by human action. They're plenty weird and scary, and unpredictable enough.

First we had the bread (or some other Oscar Meyer product)...Now comes the circus. Politico reports that Pelosi has just called for a "Weiner Ethics Inquiry." Um... What is there to inquire: the guy sent out pictures of his wiener in clear abuse of his political position (leaving his family drama aside) from a Twitter account that was obviously that of an elected official. It's unethical - period (to spare various other adjectives that come to mind). He should resign immediately. Then again, New Yorkers once again get precisely the representatives that they deserve. A far better inquiry (and thus use of taxpayer capital) would be to discover who else among the political elite does just the same on a daily basis (Weiner is certainly not alone), and has merely not been caught yet.

There is a plethora of original insight in Don Coxe (BMO Capital Makets) among them observations on sovereign risk moving from east to west, state finances (or lack thereof), the ongoing correction in financial stocks which portends nothing good for the equity investors, the ongoing violence in MENA, why this inflationary spike in food may last far longer than previous ones, and naturally, some very spot on thoughts on gold, which conclude with: "The only gold bubble likely to burst is the bubbling ridicule of gold."

Fight Club is about personal growth and community, of discovering what we are all made of, of seeking the inner steel and honing it to perfection, then using our newly strengthened muscles to build a tighter more functional community. Fight Club is about creation, not random destruction.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to address congress in a widely expected speech, the key focus of which will be to diffuse the situation following the president's remarks from last week over what the appropriate borders for the Israeli state should and should not be. As Reuters reports: "When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses Congress on Tuesday, many will be watching to see whether he escalates a war of words with the White House over how to make peace in the Middle East. Netanyahu has a mostly sympathetic ear in Congress, where few lawmakers in either party speak up for the Palestinians, hewing to decades of close U.S.-Israeli ties. But the Israeli prime minister has had a rocky relationship with President Barack Obama, and last week said the president's vision of a Palestinian state based on the borders of 1967 could leave Israel "indefensible."" Watch the full thing below.