Israel

Remember what the 2012 leaked Stratfor memo said about the focal point of western airborne power? Here it is again: "Syrian air defenses are a lot more robust and are much denser, esp around Damascus and on the borders with Israel, Turkey. THey are most worried about mobile air defenses, particularly the SA-17s that they've been getting recently. It's still a doable mission, it's just not an easy one. The main base they would use is Cyprus, hands down. Brits and FRench would fly out of there. They kept stressing how much is stored at Cyprus and how much recce comes out of there. The group was split on whether Turkey would be involved, but said Turkey would be pretty critical to the mission to base stuff out of there. EVen if Turkey had a poltiical problem with Cyprus, they said there is no way the Brits and the FRench wouldn't use Cyprus as their main air force base." (sic) Well, it has begun. Guardian reports that "Warplanes and military transporters have begun arriving at Britain's Akrotiri airbase on Cyprus, less than 100 miles from the Syrian coast, in a sign of increasing preparations for a military strike against the Assad regime in Syria."

What the Falafel? There are times when you wish you could just dig a big hole and throw yourself into it and let someone else fill it in with shovel-loads of muck.

The planting and harvesting of false flags in Syria will need a crop rotation following the latest "revelation" by Germany's Focus magazine (on Saturday), subsequently reported by the Times of Israel, that Israeli Defense Forces had listened in on senior Syrian officials discussing a chemical attack last Wednesday. TOI reports that "according to the report Saturday in Focus magazine, a squad specializing in wire-tapping within the IDF’s prestigious 8200 intelligence unit intercepted a conversation between high-ranking regime officials regarding the use of chemical agents at the time of the attack. The report, which cited an ex-Mossad official who insisted on remaining anonymous, said the intercepted conversation proved that Bashar Assad’s regime was responsible for the use of nonconventional weapons."

UPDATE 3: He speaks... and it's over

UPDATE 2: KERRY STILL MIA (NO PUN INTENDED)

UPDATE: KERRY COMMENTS ON SYRIA DELAYED UNTIL 2:30, STATE DEPT SAYS

Following the weekend's escalations (and today's intelligence intercepts, inspections, and attacks), US Secretary of State John Kerry is back from vacation and takes to the teleprompter (and hopefuly some Q&A) to brief us on which red line is next and when the US goes back to war (removing the Taper fears)...

*RUSSIAN, TURKISH FOREIGN MINISTERS DISCUSSED SYRIA BY PHONE
*PUTIN, CAMERON DISCUSSED SYRIA IN PHONE CALL, KREMLIN SAYS
*CAMERON, PUTIN SAY CHEMICAL WEAPON USE MERITS SERIOUS RESPONSE
‘IDF intercepted Syrian regime chatter on chemical attack’ - Times of Israel

Pre-Kerry: S&P 500 (Fut) 1663.25, 10Y 2.8055%, USD 81.45, WTI $106.15, Gold $1393.55

INSIGHT - military intervention in Syria, post withdrawal status of forces

Released on 2012-03-06 07:00 GMT

Preliminary Evidence Indicates that the Syrian Government Did NOT Launch a Chemical Weapon Attack Against Its People

Now that the US has made up its mind once more and "knows" that Wednesday's chemical attack in Syria was conducted by the government and targeting the "rebels", even as the "developed" west calls for a UN investigation to determine just that, and as the US (including the CIA), Israel and Jordan have already sent an advance military force into Syria to conduct more false flag provocations and blame it on the regime, the only next step is to soften and prepare popular opinion for what comes next. And what comes next is on the front page of the WSJ this morning: "The U.S. began refining its military options for possible strikes in Syria, officials said... Officers at the Pentagon on Thursday were updating target lists for possible airstrikes on a range of Syrian government and military installations." Then again we have seen all this before. Surely, one of these times the administration will actually go ahead and push the button instead of just talking about it.

• So no great rotation into EM? Capital Flows Back to U.S. as Markets Slump Across Asia (BBG)
• Muslim Brotherhood leader arrested in Egypt (Reuters)
• Allies Thwart America in Egypt: Israel, Saudis and U.A.E. Support Military Moves (WSJ)
• Dear Bloomberg: when you buy the loans of a distressed retailer, you are not betting on a rebound, you are betting on being the fulcrum security in a bankruptcy: Kyle Bass Said to Bet on J.C. Penney Comeback With Loan Purchase (BBG)
• Bubbles Bloom Anew in Desert as Buyers Wager on Las Vegas (BBG)
• Britain rejects Spanish request for Gibraltar talks (Reuters)
• U.K. Mortgage Lending Rises to Highest Since Lehman Collapse (BBG)
• Pension Funds Dispute Math in Detroit Bankruptcy (WSJ)
• Christie Says Gayness Inborn as He Signs Therapy Measure (BBG)

It may be time for John Kerry to emerge from his boat and whisper a soothing word or two:

EGYPT VICE PRESIDENT ELBARADEI ANNOUNCES RESIGNATION: AFP
MURSI BACKERS SHOOT, KILL 4 POLICEMEN IN CAIRO STATION: REUTERS

But fear not: Israel has the Egypt's government's back: recall Israelis, Egyptians Cooperate on Terror. Then again, maybe escalating the region was the point all along.

In the past the Jackson Hole conference very much revolved around the Fed chairman with the opening remarks often the top (and most market-moving) news from the junket. Despite an interesting docket of speakers and presenters from a central banking perspective (as BofAML details below), with no major Fed officials scheduled to speak (and only Kuroda turning up from the rest of the major world central banks), the markets are likely to pay a lot less attention to Jackson Hole than in the past.

The middle of the month brings a mixture of second-tier macro numbers punctuated by the market-moving (and Taper-cementing) retail sales report. We get IP, CPI and PPI from the US this coming week. In terms of hard activity numbers, US retail sales on Tuesday will be the highlight which as a reminder is, in addition to Jackson Hole, seen as one of two key pre-Taper catalysts to keep an eye on. Outside the US, the key data will be the quarterly publication of German, French and Eurozone GDP, as well as Japanese GDP, which has already been released (weaker real growth, higher inflation). The second week of the month also tends to show the first survey results with the Phily Fed and Empire surveys on Thursday. In Germany the ZEW will come on Tuesday. Finally, from an FX point of view, we will be focused on balance of payments related data, with the trade balance in India and TIC data in the US. After a few very weak TIC releases in recent months we would expect more evidence of weak capital inflows into the US.

While we have previously exposed the less than exuberant perspective of many Egyptians towards the US, it now seems the torrent of anti-US hostility has reached such large proportions that the mainstream media is forced to admit report it. As the WSJ reports, a headline in a major Egyptian state newspaper this week referred to the proposed U.S. envoy to Egypt as the "Ambassador of Death." Posters in Cairo's Tahrir Square, a center of pro-government rallies, depict President Barack Obama with a beard and turban, exclaiming his "support for terrorism." The moves, WSJ adds, highlight the depth of public distrust of U.S. policies, and draw from a "reservoir of anti-Americanism and conspiratorial theories". Of course, after yesterday's revelation of the staged Muslim Brotherhood riots, nobody really knows just where US-Egyptian sentiment really lays but it seems fair to say that it is not improving.

One of the more surprising news to hit the tape yesterday was that Saudi Arabia, exasperated and desperate by Russia's relentless support of the Syrian regime and refusal to abandon the Syrian army thus facilitating the Qatari plan to pass its natgas pipeline to Europe under Syria, had quietly approached Putin with a proposal for a huge arms deal and a pledge to boost Russian influence in the Arab world if only Putin would abandon Syria's Assad. It will hardly come as a surprise to anyone that in the aftermath of yesterday's dilettante mistake by Obama which alienated Putin from the western world (and its subservient states such as Saudi Arabia of course), has just said no. It will certainly come as no surprise because as we explained previously, the biggest loser from Russia abandoning Syria (something we predicted would never happen) would be none other than Russia's most important company - Gazprom - which would lose its energy grip over Europe as Qatar replaced it as a nat gas vendor. What is shocking in all of this is that Saudi Arabia was so stupid and/or naive to believe that Putin would voluntarily cede geopolitical control over the insolvent Eurozone, where he has more influence according to some than even the ECB, or Bernanke. Especially in the winter.

The sharpening international geopolitical competition over natural resources has turned some strategic resources into engines of power struggle. Transnational water resources have become an especially active source of competition and conflict, triggering a dam-building race and prompting growing calls for the United Nations to recognize water as a key security concern. With the era of cheap, bountiful water having been replaced by increasing supply and quality constraints, many investors are beginning to view water as the new oil. Political and economic water wars are already being waged in several regions, reflected in dam construction on international rivers and coercive diplomacy or other means to prevent such works. The World Bank estimates that such constraints are costing China 2.3% of GDP. In short, we must focus on addressing our water-supply problems as if our lives depended on it. In fact, they do.

What the US wants in Egypt is what it failed to attain in Iraq - stability of the kind that assumes US control over the situation. In Iraq’s case, this meant control over one of the world’s biggest oil resources. In Egypt’s case it means a smooth ride for American foreign investment, a wide reach over one of the busiest shipping zones in the world and an assurance of peace with Israel. But now Washington finds itself in a tricky position. It needs to make sure that any new Egypt is friendly with Israel, but it also needs to make sure that it caters to Saudi Arabia’s vision of a new Egypt. So far, so good--minus the stability factor.