• Pivotfarm
    04/18/2014 - 12:44
    Peering in from the outside or through the looking glass at what’s going down on the other side is always a distortion of reality. We sit here in the west looking at the development, the changes and...

Israel

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Frontrunning: November 8





  • Fed Anxiety Rises as QE Raises Risk of Loss With Political Cost (BBG)
  • Iran Nuclear Deal Expected as Early as Friday (WSJ)
  • Israel rejects mooted interim Iran nuclear deal, Kerry heads to talks (Reuters)
  • JPMorgan Banker Backed $200 Million Madoff Loan in 2008 (BBG)
  • Unleashing the food nazis - FDA Says Trans Fats Aren't Safe in Food (WSJ)
  • Draghi Aggression Shows Pledges Backed by Rate Surprise (BBG)
  • S&P Cuts France's Credit Rating by One Notch to Double-A (WSJ)
  • S&P criticises France’s high tax rates for stifling growth (FT)
  • Payroll Gains in U.S. Probably Cooled Amid Government Shutdown (BBG)
 


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Palestinian Leader Yasser Arafat Was Assasinated With Radioactove Polonium, Tests Show





And so another conspiracy theory, that Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat was poisoned with Polonium, becomes non-conspiracy fact.

 


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Frontrunning: November 6





  • Christie Sets Himself Up for Run in 2016 (WSJ)
  • De Blasio Elected Next New York City Mayor in Landslide (WSJ)
  • Hilsenrath: Fed Study: Rate Peg Off Mark (WSJ)
  • MF Global Customers Will Recover All They Lost (NYT) - amazing what happens when you look under the rug
  • Virginia, Alabama Voter Choices Show Tea Party Declining (BBG)
  • Explosions kill 1, injure 8 in north China city (Reuters)
  • Toyota boosts full-year guidance as weak yen drives revenues (FT)
  • Starbucks wants to recruit 10,000 vets, spouses to its ranks (Reuters)
  • U.S. Economy Slack Justifies Stimulus, Top Fed Staff Papers Show (BBG)
  • Israel set to become major gas exporter (FT)
 


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US Drones Taliban Leader; His Troops Vow Bloody Revenge; Pakistan Government Furious At America





Having done a bang up job in Syria, where Obama nearly started world war III so Qatar could send its natgas to Europe at a lower price than  Gazprom's, while alienating America's legacy allies in the region, Saudi Arabia and Israel, and ensuring its enemies see it even weaker in the international arena following Obama's schooling by Putin, the US president continues to win friends abroad (while spying there, here and everywhere, namely the Pope) with the latest snafu coming from Pakistan, another former ally, where America just droned the leader of the Taliban fighters on Saturday, leaving his body "damaged but recognizable". 

 


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Hungover Markets Enter November With Quiet Overnight Session





After a blistering October for stocks, drunk on yet another month of record liquidity by the cental planners, November's first overnight trading session has been quiet so far, with the highlight being the release of both official and HSBC China PMI data. The official manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4 in October from 51.1 in September. It managed to beat expectations of 51.2 and was also the highest reading in 18 months - since April 2012. October’s PMIs are historically lower than those for September, so the MoM uptick is considered a bit more impressive. The uptrend in October was also confirmed by the final HSBC manufacturing PMI which printed at 50.9 which is higher than the preliminary reading of 50.7 and September’s reading of 50.9. The Chinese data has helped put a floor on Asian equities overnight and S&P 500 futures are nudging higher (+0.15%). The key laggard are Japanese equities where the TOPIX (-1.1%) is weaker pressured by a number of industrials, ahead of a three day weekend. Electronics-maker Sony is down 12% after surprising the market with a profit downgrade with this impacting sentiment in Japanese equities.

 


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Stocks Dump To End Best Month Since January





Good news (Chicago PMI) was very bad news and sent stocks into freefall early on. Hedgers then appeared to lift their protection (sending VIX lower) and igniting a surge back to the highs in stocks, tagging the stops, and then stocks slumped to end October (among the best month in the year for most indices) with a 2-day losing streak (the first in over 3 weeks) but EU stocks outperformed. Stocks had been ignoring the "taper-on" trends in Bonds (7Y TSY +5bps on week), USD (+1.3% on week), and precious metals (-2% on the week), but into the close, volume picked up and equities tumbled. Silver and Gold were monkey-hammered lower (ending Oct +1% and-0.3% respectively). FX markets saw USD bid aggressively (though CAD strengthened against the greenback). Credit remains considerably less enthusiastic than stocks. An ugly close for stocks... (blamed on Israel for now)

 


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Syrian Army Base Rocked Again By Overnight Explosions, Israel Implicated





The last time major explosions were reported near Damascus, it was in May, when Israel and its air force did everything in its power to provoke the Assad regime to escalate military operations both domestically and abroad. It almost succeeded when three months later Obama nearly led a falseflag-driven "liberation" force facilitating Saudi and Qatari energy interests in the region and their pipeline ambitions below Syria. Since then Israel had been largely dormant, seething in its (and Saudi) disappointment that it was unable to play Obama like a fiddle. The unstable detente changed again overnight, when as Haaretz reports "a large explosion was heard at a Syrian army missile base in Latakia.  Eye witnesses told the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human rights that the explosion took place near Snobar Jableh, south of the city. It was not yet clear whether anyone was wounded in the strike." And not surprisingly, it is once again Israel' that was implicated in the latest regional provocation because as Haaretz adds, the "strike follows Lebanese media reports that Israeli aircraft circled above southern Lebanon."

 


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Key Events And Issues In The Coming Week





In the upcoming week, the key event is the US FOMC, though we and the consensus do not expect any key decisions to be taken. Though a strengthening of forward guidance is still possible, virtually nobody expects anything of import to be announced until the Dec meeting. In the upcoming week we also have five more central bank meetings in addition to the FOMC: Japan, New Zealand, India, Hungary and Israel. In Hungary we, in line with consensus, expect a 20bps cut to 3.40% in the policy rate. In India consensus expects a 25bps hike in the repo rate to 7.75%. On the data front, US IP, retail sales and pending home sales are worth a look, but the key release will be the ISM survey at the end of the week, together with manufacturing PMIs around the world. US consumer confidence is worth a look, given the potential impact from the recent fiscal tensions.

 


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12 Shocking Clues For What America Will Look Like When The Next Great Economic Crisis Strikes





The collapse of American society is accelerating.  For the moment, much of our social decay is being masked by the tremendous level of affluence that we are experiencing in aggregate.  It has been reported that 4 out of every 5 adults in the United States "struggle with joblessness, near-poverty or reliance on welfare for at least parts of their lives", but in general Americans still enjoy a debt-fueled standard of living that is far beyond what most of the rest of the world enjoys.  When that debt-fueled standard of living permanently disappears, it is going to unleash chaos unlike anything that America has ever seen before. So how can we be so sure that this is going to happen?  After all, the United States didn't descend into complete and utter chaos during the Great Depression of the 1930s.  Wouldn't an economic depression unfold in a similar manner today? Unfortunately, a lot has changed since then.  A lot more Americans were self-sufficient back in those days, and the truth is that the character of our nation has been rotting and decaying for decades.

 


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Israel Central Bank Follows Fed With First Woman Chairman Appointment After Larry Summers' Rejection





We can only imagine to what depths of misogynistic hell Larry Summers' ego must have tumbled after women ended up overtaking him as heads of not one but the two central banks he was slated to head within a month.

 


Pivotfarm's picture

Petrol Increase because Traders Can’t Read





We all know that it’s not actually the message that is important but the way that the words are interpreted by those reading them. Never has that been more important than with Twitter. You only get 140 characters, which might be too much when we read some of the comments on there. But, for others it’s far from enough. Traders look like they could be needing a few more pages to get the full picture. Just a few days ago traders made a mistake when they read the tweet posted by the Israeli army on October 10th 2013.

 


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