Israel

Someone is lying here: either Hamas did not down an IDF drone, dubbed "Sky Light", and the clip below is one big fraud (unclear why Hamas would go to such a length to fabricate a downed drone video), or the IDF is lying when it said it "confirmed" that one of its drones had been shot down. Either way, we have a feeling that the airborne campaign is coming to an end, and that Israel may and likely will escalate to a full blown land invasion very soon unless something dramatically changes. We fail to see what catalyzes this.

Update: the following tweet from Israel's ambassador to the US, Michael Oren, will hardly help: "ALERT: Tel Aviv area was just hit by a rocket attack from #Gaza"

Despite having lost its prominent headline position in the global media, the things in Gaza are going from bad to worse with news reports that Israeli ground forces are preparing to enter the Gaza Strip which will take the confrontation to an effective ground war level, even as a separate news report claims that Egypt has now closed its border with Israel, in yet another escalation. It is unclear how soon until Egypt also halts gas supplies to Israel as it did back in April - we assume not too long. So as the world awaits the next major step in a conflict that has a Katyusha rocket's chance in the Iron Dome of going away on its own, we present the latest clip provided by the handy, if oddly boastful, Israeli Defense Forces, this time showing how a rocket warehouse in Gaza just became one with the ether. Tangentially, and once again, we can't help but lament how a Plan X involving the US military would be an option here, if only the entire US military and intelligence hadn't become a gonzo reality TV show virtually overnight.

ith Israel having launched the biggest Gaza escalation in years, the waiting game now turns to the Gaza retaliation, which if the rhetoric is any indication, will be substantial. So what can Gaza do, and how far can its rockets penetrate, assuming they can bypass the Israeli "Iron Dome" defense shield? The following infographic from Stratfor explains it. The ranging is particularly relevant in the context of the Dimona nuclear power plant, which at least at first blush appears unreachable - after all, if Gaza really wanted to unleash the gates of hell on Israel, it would focus all of its firepower precisely on this one spot.

The World Gold Council issued a report “Global gold demand reflects challenging global economic climate: ETFs up 56% and India up 9% in Q3 2012”  which showed that global gold demand fell 11% in the three months to September from record levels seen during the same period last year, which was curbed by a sluggish Chinese economy and stronger Indian demand limited the drop. In Q3 2012, gold investment demand (total bar and coin demand plus ETFs and similar products) was 429.9 tonnes down 16% from Q3 2011. Although the year-on-year snapshot for investment demand suggests falling interest, this is not the case. Rather, it highlights the strong demand seen in Q3 2011. Interestingly, demand for ETFs rose 56% to 136t, compared to Q3 2011. Demand for gold-backed ETFs in Q3 grew significantly in the quarter partially due to institutions responding to the additional QE measures in the US and Europe. At 87 tonnes, Q3 2012 investment demand for gold surged from 78 tonnes in Q2, a rise of 12%. Examining this over the longer term, Q3 represents the first quarter-on-quarter increase in Indian investment demand since Q2 2011.

The main overnight event, if not very surprising, was the formal announcement of the power moves at the top of China from the now concluding 18th Communist Party Congress, which occured largely as expected. To summarize: "Xi Jinping took the helm Thursday of a new, trimmed down Communist Party leadership that insiders said was shaped less by the daunting economic and political challenges facing China over the next decade than by bitter personal and factional rivalries within a secretive Party elite.  In a surprise move, Mr. Xi replaced outgoing Party chief Hu Jintao as head of the powerful Central Military Commission, which controls the armed forces, making Mr. Hu the first Communist Chinese leader to cede all formal powers without bloodshed, purges or political unrest. But the new leadership lineup did not include the two figures with the strongest track record on political reform, dimming prospects that a new generation of rulers is committed to tackling vested interests within its own ranks." In other words and just like after the US elections - to quote the announcement during every 2:15 FOMC release from now until eternity - "no change, repeat, no change" (and the SHCOMP closing down 1.22%, and the Hang Seng down by over 1.5% more or less confirmed this). An interactive infographic of who's the new who in China can be found here, while a summary of what this means and what to expect are here and here.  Elsewhere, the other main event was the formal announcement that, as everyone certainly expected, Europe officially is now in a recession. The euro-area economy slipped into a recession for the second time in four years, with GDP falling 0.1 percent in the third quarter. The official start date of Europe's recession is now Q3 2011. And with October Eurozone CPI pushing at a perky pace of 2.5%, one can add stagflation to the official list of terms haunting Europe.

It was all going so well, first name terms with Obama and AAPL up 30% from where you bought it... a mere two months later and the Bank of Israel is now underwater on their AAPL shares and about to print bullets. We noted in early March what a ridiculous ponzi this was all becoming when the Bank of Israel announced its purchase of US equity positions including AAPL. In retrospect it is so gratifying to gloat at the self-confirming bias that enabled their reserve managers to buy on the way up as the stock that can do no wrong lifted all boats. Actually, it is easy to gloat in any 'spect'. We can only assume that Bernanke's Bat-phone is ringing off the hook this afternoon to 'get back to work' and come to the aid of his Bank of Israel mentor.

After a busy morning of phone calls from Israel and chatting with his base 'influential' CEOs, we are sure the Compromiser-in-Chief will reach across the aisle this time... right? Will the market follow the recent trend and drop on his every word? Live webcast below...

No, this is not a clip from the latest Call of Duty showing what happens when one gets a 9+ killstreak. It is the IAF taking out the head of the Hamas military wing, which has set the region ablaze (even if the central bank manipulated VIX and EURUSD refuse to budge in response).

it was only a matter of time before today's Israeli offensive ran into a snag. The complication: Egypt, which has long been treading the fence being both a pro-US regional power (someone has to provide those joint guarantees on Egyptian bonds, and to supply the local tear gas canisters in exchange for a friendly Suez Canal administrator), as well as a pro-Muslim presence. Today, the government was taken to task by the ruling Islamist Muslim Brotherhood which felt the need to be true to its name and express disgust at the Israeli action in Gaza. From AFP: "Egypt’s Islamist Freedom and Justice Party, formerly headed by President Mohammed Mursi, said on Wednesday Egypt would no longer stand by as Israel attacked Palestinians after air strikes killed a Hamas leader. The FJP, the political arm of the powerful Muslim Brotherhood movement, said Israeli air strikes that killed top militant Ahmed al-Jaabari in Gaza earlier on Wednesday required “swift Arab and international action to stop the massacres.” The party, which fielded Mursi in a June election to replace toppled president Hosni Mubarak, said Israel “must take into account the changes in the Arab region and especially Egypt.” Egypt “will not allow the Palestinians to be subjected to Israeli aggression, as in the past,” the party statement said."

Between the escalation in the Middle East and Olli Rehn pouring cold-water on the hopes and prayers of an imminent Spanish rescue-request, sovereign bond risk rose notably today. A late-day rampapalooza in EURUSD (another round of end-of-day repatriation?) signaled risk-on in the correlated monkeys and sure enough (in the US and Europe) stocks rose into the European close. The USD is remarkably unchanged on the week - despite the volatility in risk assets in general (zee stabilitee at the 1.27 peg seems the new normal) - as the Fed/ECB 'agreement' appears to have crushed the life out of yet another market-based signal - as EURUSD implied vol crashes to five-year lows.

As expected, the escalation out of Gaza has been fast and furious with Al Arabiya reporting that the Hamas response to the operation that Israel has code named "Operation Pillar Of Cloud", which an IDF spokesperson has clarified Israel is ready to escalate into a ground operation into Gaza if needed, is that "Hamas is now in open war" with Israel. Moments later the organization Islamic Jihad has unsurprisingly, chimed in: "Israel has declared war on Gaza and they will bear the responsibility for the consequences." Stay tuned folks cause this may get very messy quickly. Now if only the US military wasn't currently the functional equivalent of a grotesque reality gong show.

"War (escalation) is good" appears to have been the idiot algos immediate knee-jerk reaction to the post-Israel news jump in oil prices - as correlations rule the world. But once the reality of Gaza being 'the start' of an apparent escalation, and opened up the third Israeli front after Iran and Syria, risk was decidedly off and US equities reverted to their lows of yesterday...and back to early August levels (pre-Draghi).

Update: Israel CDS 145/155, +6 bps

In a move that is certain to aggravate the already frayed relations between Israel and the Palestine, not to mention send Brent spiking, moments ago the IAF, in a precision airstrike, assassinated Ahmed Jaabari, the head of Hamas' armed wing - a position that is equivalent to Chief of Staff - together with his son, who were travelling in a car at the moment of the strike. And, as expected, the furious Hamas response has already been logged and promises much more death and escalation in the near term.

Markets, you see, always live in this “day before” where the bend in the highway never comes, where the path is always straight and fixed and where it is generally thought that nothing of consequence will happen. Then some event takes place, something magical or wonderful or awful occurs and the world is turned on its axis and nothing is ever the same again. We are in danger, “clear and present danger” and the strategy of the “day before” is no longer appropriate. $400 billion has poured into bond funds this year, an all-time record, with yields at depressed levels indicating a quite real flight to safety. The United States lost thirty-six percent of its wealth during the American Financial Crisis and, people or institutions, the song rolls across the landscape, “We won’t get fooled again!”

When we reported yesterday that following "recurring" "provocations" by the Syrian military, which is so very confused who it wants to declare war on first - NATO member Turkey, or best US friend Israel, it is pressing on both fronts, even as it continues to be torn by CIA funded, and Al Qaeda stoked civil war, which saw Israel launch a missile into Syrian territory for the first time since 1973,we said, "It goes without saying that this is merely the first proverbial shot across the  bow, or in this case the DMZ. Much more to follow, until finally the UN rules, and the fair and objective media backs it, that the time to invade liberate Syria has come." Sure enough, less than 24 hours later...

ISRAELI MILITARY REPORTS `DIRECT HITS' ON SYRIA TARGETS: AP