Israel

The latest target of Operation Anonymous, which following the dissolution of LulzSec is the last substantial non-amorphous hacker collective left out there, could lead to some substantialgeopolitical fallout. That is because the target of the just announced upcoming DDOS attack is none other than the Israeli Parliament, the Knesset, and while Israel has allegedly been happy to dispense hack attacks in the past, the onslaught on the Iranian nuclear power plant courtesy of the Stuxnet virus coming to mind, we doubt it will as happy to be seen on the receiving end of decentralized computer warfare. Either way, with the world focusing on Greece tomorrow, this development, and specifically what form of retaliation Israel adopts, will be yet another important factor to keep track of over the next 24 hours.

Luckily, the IMF does not bar candidates for being too thin, or too male...

As the Nakba protests continue late in the night across the Middle East, things in Egypt have taken a turn for the worse after Reuters reports that Egyptian police have fired teargas to force back pro-Palestinian demonstrators who had broken through a barricade in front of the Israeli embassy in Cairo, according to witnesses. Additionally, according to the twitter stream, at least one person has been killed during the protest after being shot in the head. Those who wish to follow the latest on the ground updates from Egypt and Israel may do so by searching the #May 15 hash tag. Judging by the early drop in the EURUSD, the sentiment is definitely risk averse.

Just to make the clusterflock complete the following news from BBC Newsfile crosses the tape: "The Ma'an News Agency website in Arabic at 1631 gmt on 7 April posts the following "urgent" caption: "[Ofir] Gendelman [spokesman for the office of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu] Tells Ma'an: I do not rule out the possibility that Israel will wage war on Gaza tonight." Or, more metaphorically, the proverbial flame in a fireworks store. Surely this last straw will send the S&P limit [up|down] until someone has the brilliant idea that Bernanke can print his way out of that one as well.

• INTERIOR MINISTER ELI ISHAI SAYS SITUATION DETERIORATING
• ISHAI SAYS ISRAEL MAY HAVE TO ACT IF DETERIORATION CONTINUES
• ISHAI LINKS JERUSALEM BOMBING TO ITAMAR STABBING, GAZA VIOLENCE
• ISHAI SPEAKS ON ISRAEL ARMY RADIO

Priced in?

And just as oil was trending lower on the day, we receive our now daily news of Israel conflict escalation, as Reuters reports that tank fire has killed 3 Palestinians in Gaza, wounding another four including children. Bloomberg also chimes in:

• ISRAEL ARMY SAYS FOUR PROJECTILES LAUNCHED FROM GAZA HIT SOUTH
• FOUR PALESTINIANS KILLED BY ISRAELI FIRE IN GAZA, OFFICIAL SAYS

The result is an immediate jump in oil as the market apparently, and contrary to our expectations, has to digest this latest piece of geopolitical news.

Since the apocalypse is obviously priced in the Russell 2000, the market should be able to digest the latest piece roasted glow in the dark swan with barely a hiccup.

• ISRAELI WARPLANES HIT HAMAS MILITARY SITE IN GAZA, XINHUA SAYS
• ISRAELI GAZA ATTACKS INJURE FIVE PEOPLE, AL-ARABIYA REPORTS
• ISRAELI WARPLANES FLYING OVER GAZA, AL-ARABIYA REPORTS

That said, courtesy of the biggest case of headline fatigue in history, at this point absent NASA announcing the imminent destruction of the earth by an asteroid, or a Proxima Centauri supernova (and even that will be bullish as there is precisely 4.2 years of stock market Zimbabwefication before the earth is annihilated), there appears to be nothing that can possibly prevent the Chairsatan from reverse exercising his Russell 2000 put at 36,000.

Whether related to the broadly escalating violence in the region or not, the latest development out of Israel is sure to bring even more geopolitical tension, especially with Iran adn Syria already on edge following their own violent protests (and arguably looking for a political scapegoat). BBC reports that "Palestinian militants in Gaza have fired dozens of missiles into southern Israel in what appears to be their heaviest such barrage in two years. About 50 mortars were fired - two Israelis were hurt, Israel says." Never one to step away from an escalation, Israel replied in kind: "Israeli tanks later shelled targets in the coastal strip, wounding at least five people, Palestinian officials say." We are confident newsflow out of Israel and Gaza will intensify as the latest and greatest Black Swan out of the middle east is now stretching its wings.

Two Iranian warships planned to sail through the Suez canal en route to Syria on Wednesday, Israel's foreign minister said, calling the move the latest "provocation" by Tehran and hinting at an Israeli response. "Tonight, two Iranian warships are meant to pass through the Suez Canal to the Mediterranean Sea and reach Syria, something that has not happened in many years," Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said in a Jerusalem speech distributed by his office.

In what can only be described as broadly market positive news (remember in bizarro world $200 oil is equivalent to 2,854 on the S&P), Jerusalem Post reports that the leader of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah is ready for another war with Israel and will "conquer the Galilee."  "I tell the fighters of the resistance that one day they might be asked to liberate the Galilee," Nasrallah said at a "Resistance Martyrs Day" ceremony. "The Israelis are afraid," Nasrallah said. "I want to assure you and tell the Israelis that they should be careful because the blood of Imad Mugniyeh will not go to waste." Presumably, Hezbollah has been closely following Israel's response to recent revolutions across the region, and likes what it sees: "The Hezbollah leader also discussed Israel's reactions to the protests across the Middle East, citing Defense Minister Ehud  Barak's assessment that the Middle East is "changing in front of our eyes." "This shows that Israel, which was confident in the past, is no longer," as it was, Nasrallah said." And following that profound piece of psychological insight, all we can say is BTFD, or we would, if Bernanke allowed dips any more.

"In terms of atmospherics, Hacham said the Israeli delegation was "shocked" by Mubarak's aged appearance and slurred speech. Hacham was full of praise for Soliman, however, and noted that a "hot line" set up between the MOD and Egyptian General Intelligence Service is now in daily use. Hacham said he sometimes speaks to Soliman's deputy Mohammed Ibrahim several times a day. Hacham noted that the Israelis believe Soliman is likely to serve as at least an interim President if Mubarak dies or is incapacitated. (Note: We defer to Embassy Cairo for analysis of Egyptian succession scenarios, but there is no question that Israel is most comfortable with the prospect of Omar Soliman.)"

More information is starting to emerge about the Stuxnet virus which we discussed extensively previously. Richard Falkenrath, a principal at Chertoff Group, talks to Bloomberg and does a good overview of the impact of Stuxnet, and just how substantial its destructive potential could be. Among his observations is that "it took the resources of a nation state to create this piece of malware." And considering that the ultimate target of Stuxnet infections is Iran, and specifically its Bushehr nuclear reactor, it is not all that surprising that according to Falkenrath the originating country is Israel. The only question is whether Iran also has access to comparable high sophisticated technology (and if so, whether the recent crash in the CFTC's server preventing the disclosure of today's Committment of Trader report has anything to do with it). The amusing bit, is that Iran's nuclear power plant actually does run Windows. Which makes one wonder why go to such great lengths instead of having someone merely remind the host computers that the local version of Win95 is and has always been pirated.

Oops

In an interview by Likud Knesset Member Danny Danon, speaking with WND senior reporter Aaron Klein, who hosts an investigative program on New York's WABC 770 AM Radio, the Israeli said that "Israel is preparing for a time of war...We are ready for all scenarios, and we are able to defend our civilian population. I cannot tell you how long we can wait more. But we prefer to wait and see if the international bodies are acting, or [whether] it will be only the burden of Israel, like it was in the early '80s, when the great leader, Menachem Begin, [made] the great decision to bomb the nuclear reactor in Iraq." He concluded: "We don't want this to be a war of Jews against Muslims. It should be a war of Western civilization [against] Iran." Good luck explaining that to 1.5 billion Muslims around the world.

As has been widely anticipated, Iran is currently in the last stages of preparation before pushing the On button for its brand, spanking new (and 20 years in the making) nuclear power plant. As Reuters reports: "Television showed live pictures of Iran's nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi and his Russian counterpart watching a fuel rod assembly being prepared for insertion into the reactor near the Gulf city of Bushehr." Yet despite Russia's guarantee that it would collect spent rods that could be used to make weapons-grade plutonium, Israel is not taking this development lightly at all, and as Jerusalem Post reported earlier, warned that "It is totally unacceptable that a country that blatantly violates decisions of the United Nations Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency, and ignores its commitment to the Non-Proliferation Treaty charter, will enjoy the fruits of using nuclear energy," according to Foreign Ministry spokesman Yossi Levy said. Which in turn has prompted Ahmadinejad to warn that a strike on Iran would be answered with "harsh and painful" response. All in all, just another Saturday in the middle east.