Italy

It's All About This Friday's Payrolls: Key Events In The Coming Week

After Friday's Jackson Hole repricing of Fed hike expectations, which made it clear that the fate of a September rate hike is now in the hands of the August payrolls number, the main risk event of the week is therefore this Friday's US NFPs for which consensus expects a reading of 180K, down from last month's 217K print. A number substantially above this will make a September hike virtually certain, and potentially risks roiling markets as good news will likely be bad news this time around.

Global Stocks Slide, Futs Flat; Commodities Down On Stronger Dollar As Hike Odds Reprice Higher

The dollar index rose to a two-week high on Monday, while bond yields jumped to their highest since June and global stocks sold off after senior Federal Reserve officials indicated a U.S. interest rate increase was on the cards in the near term. The Fed effect - and the stronger dollar - reverberated through markets, pressuring stocks in Europe and emerging markets, pushing oil below $47 and the commodity complex lower.

Europe: The Substitution Of A Population

In one generation, Europe will be unrecognizable. Eastern Europe now has "the largest population loss in modern history", while Germany overtook Japan by having the world's lowest birth rate. Europe, as it is aging, no longer renews its generations, and instead welcomes massive numbers of migrants from the Middle East, Africa and Asia, who are going to replace the native Europeans, and who are bringing cultures with radically different values.

Frontrunning: August 25

  • Stock futures lower as countdown to Yellen speech begins (Reuters)
  • Italy quake death toll nears 250 as rescuers search demolished towns (Reuters)
  • Central bankers eye public spending to plug $1 trillion investment gap (Reuters)
  • Chelsea Clinton Plans to Stay on Board of Family Foundation (WSJ)
  • Bond Traders Are Desperate for Direction From Yellen in Jackson Hole (BBG)

Frontrunning: August 24

  • 'Voices under the rubble' after quake hits Italy; at least 38 dead (Reuters)
  • Turkish tanks, special forces launch first major push into Syria to battle IS (Reuters)
  • A Year After Stocks Armageddon, It’s Smooth Sailing for Markets (BBG)
  • Global stocks ease, dollar holds ground as U.S. rate bets abound (Reuters)
  • Merkel Tells Renzi He Can’t Bend Euro Rules to Boost Growth (BBG)

Is The EU Volcano About To Erupt?

Europe is more splintered now in many ways than it was before the adoption of the Euro. Anger is visible everywhere. The volcano is ready to blow.

Stocks Creep Higher As Dollar Resumes Falling, Oil Slides For Second Day

While the summer doldrums continue, with little market-moving newsflow overnight and zombified volumes, US futures crept higher and European shares rose after EU PMIs printed modestly better than expected, while a return to dollar weakness pushed emerging markets higher, even if it failed to boost oil which as we noted last night was downgraded by Goldman on various fundamental reasons.

Who's Going To Pick Up The UK Tab?

A large part of the reason why the UK had to be such a significant net contributor was that most EU members couldn’t scrape up their “fair share.” Who’s going to pick up the tab when that flow of revenue ends?

Jim Grant: "This Will Turn Out To Be Very Bad For Many People"

"The stock market is at record highs and the bond market is acting as if this were the Great Depression... the Fed is virtually a hostage of the financial markets. When they sputter, let alone fall, the Fed frets and steps in... the Fed is justified in that belief because it is responsible to a great degree for the elevation of financial asset values... and to me, gold is a very timely way to invest in monetary disorder."