Italy

It has come down to this: a year in which the US stock market (led by a handful of shares even as the vast majority of stocks has dropped) has gone nowhere, but took the longest and most volatile path to get there, is about to close either red or green for 2015 based on what happens in today's low-volume session following yesterday's unexpected last half hour of trading "air pocket" which brought the S&P back to unchanged for the year.

With just two days left in 2015, the main driver of overnight global stocks and US equity futures remains the most familiar one of all of 2015 - crude oil, which, after its latest torrid bounce yesterday has resumed the familiar "yoyo" mode, and again stumbled dropping below $37 on yesterday's surprising API 2.9 million crude inventory build, as well several more long-term "forecasts" by OPEC members, with Kuwait now budgeting for $30 oil, while Venezuela's Maduro said the oil price fell to $28/bbl and is "headed downward." As a result U.S. futures declined and European stocks fell, extending their worst December drop since 2002 in thin volume on the last full trading day of the year.

The movement toward deeper European integration appears to have halted, and gone into reverse, as the EU seems to be unraveling along ideological, national, tribal and historic lines. If these trends continue, and they seem to have accelerated in 2015, the idea of a United States of Europe dies, and with it the EU. And this raises a question about the most successful economic and political union in history - the USA.

“I think 10-year USTs are quite attractive because of my outlook for the weakening economy. Actually I believe we’re already entering a recessionin the US. Given the weakness in the global economy and the deceleration of growth in the U.S., I would imagine that by next year the Fed will cut rates once again and launch QE4."

Three years after 2012, Goldman has finally admitted that all the talk about a major exodus of your Americans from parental houses and into the harsh crony capitalist world, was nothing but hot air. As the chart below shows, the share of 18-34-year-olds living with their parents has never been higher.

After a furious three day "dash for trash", no volume, no breadth, commodity-driven rally, even Santa is now exhausted and overnight US equity index futures were little changed with European and Asian shares mixed. The dollar has declines as gold, silver gain, with WTI initially continuing its recent meteoric rise (up over 8% in the past three days, nearly hitting $38), only to reverse and give up all overnight gains moments ago. Copper falls after Chinese stocks see a second day of weakness, down 0.7% while an unexpected tumble in the USDJPY to 7 weeks lows has dragged the Nikkei (-0.5%) and its futures down.

There is one thing that could dramatically slow down China's metal exports - tariffs, anti-dumping duties and other forms of protectionism.  “What may slow down the exports is anti-dumping and protectionist measures that several countries have taken against cheap imports,” said Ernst & Young’s Agrawal. In other words, a trade war... which is precisely what the U.S. just launched by hiking tariffs on Chinese steel imports by a whopping 256%.

Russia adds another 700,000 ounces (22 tonnes) to gold reserves in November. Ally Kazakhstan increased gold reserves for 38th month –  to over 7 million ounces. Russia views gold bullion as “100% guarantee from legal and political risks ...”

"I hope I'm wrong but I fear Washington is trying to provoke a war in the Middle East to cover the coming collapse of the Petrodollar system and the American economy when the dollar is no longer the world reserve currency. The war is necessary to blame the coming dollar and debt collapse on Russia and China rather where it belongs on Wall Street, the central banking cartel and Washington political establishment. Remember while a Washington provoked war or conflict is likely to start in the Shia Crescent; it could spread across the Middle East and into Europe."

“To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything.” ~Edward Abbey

The start of the Fed's most eagerly awaited two-day policy meeting in years has finally arrived with the market expecting Yellen to announce the first 25 bps rate hike in 9 years tomorrow with nearly 80% probability, and so far US equity futures are enjoying a last minute relief rally, while emerging market stocks rose for the first day in ten after the longest losing run since June. Europe's Stoxx 600 Index has also rebounded from a five-day losing streak, the worst in over four months.

Jim Cramer - of all people - warned about this in 2007: watch the video inside!

Many people are cheering now that yesterday Marine Le Pen and her Front National (FN) party didn’t get to take over government in any regions in the France regional elections. They should think again. FN did get a lot more votes than the last time around, and, though she will be a little disappointed after last weekend’s results, it’s exactly as Le Pen herself said: “Nothing can stop us”.

- Watch video - “Monetary insanity” of ECB and Fed is “frightening”
- “Absolutely nothing has been learned” since financial crisis
- “Financial hypocrisy on a grand scale”
- Ireland was vassal of Bank of England and now ECB
- Ireland needs to get “financial and monetary independence”
- Huge demand for gold and yet prices manipulated lower
- Real unemployment is U.S. probably 15-20%
- Dollar may rally in short term but vulnerable in long term
- Russia, China may monetise gold as geopolitical weapon
- Gold and silver are “hedges for you in local currency terms”

A tragic example of this was seen in Italy in recent days when a pensioner committed suicide after having his life savings wiped out in a bank bail-in. A pensioner from near Rome, hanged himself after his €100,000 (£72,000; $110,000) investment in Banca Etruria bonds were wiped out in a bail-in. A suicide note was left by the pensioner criticising the bank.