The EU is warning Greece it faces suspension from the Schengen passport-free travel zone unless it overhauls its response to the migration crisis by mid-December, as frustration mounts over Athens’ reluctance to accept outside support. Meanwhile non-EU member Turkey gloats as it gets a soon to be embezzled wire transfer of €3.0 billion for its "proactive" refugee response.
It is only logical that a day after the S&P500 surged, hitting Goldman's 2016 target of 2,100 more than a year early because the US manufacturing sector entered into a recession, that Europe would follow and when Eurostat reported an hour ago that European headline inflation of 0.1% missed expectations of a modest 0.2% increase (core rising 0.9% vs Exp. 1.1%), European stocks predictably surged not on any improvement to fundamentals of course, but simply because the EURUSD stumbled once more, sliding by 40 pips to a session low below the 1.06 level.
"... Gladio, amongst others, is just a perfect example of how governments used oppression against their own citizens to shape the mindset of the public to unify them towards a common goal and objective, which in our case is: counter-terrorism. The problem, however, is that by giving this support, the public indirectly relinquishes many freedoms and liberties."
There was something for everyone in last night's much anticipated Chinese PMI data, with the official number sliding to the lowest in over 3 years, suggesting the PBOC will need to do more stimulus and is thus bullish, while the unoffocial Caixin print rising to the highest since June, suggesting whatever the PBOC is doing is working, and is also bullish. Not unexpectedly, global stocks decided to take the bullish way out, and have risen across the globe led by Asia, where stocks rose as much as 1.8%, Europe also green and US equity futures up 10 points as of this writing.
"Eventually, all of America’s lesser problems will combine into one giant problem. The very survival of the society will feel at stake, as leaders lead and people follow. The emergent society may be something better, a nation that sustains its Framers’ visions with a robust new pride. Or it may be something unspeakably worse. The Fourth Turning will be a time of glory or ruin."
What should the rational investor do in an environment of ongoing financial repression? If you wanted to trigger a bank run, this is certainly how you might go about it.
As noted earlier, after last week's snoozefest, this week starts off with a bang when the IMF announces in a few hours it will accept the Chinese Yuan in the pantheon of world reserve currencies alongside the USD, EUR, GBP and JPY the only question being what the alotted weighing of the currency will be. Things then progress to tomorrow's global PMI numbers, Yellen speeches on the economy to the Economic Club of Washington and Congress (Weds/Thurs), the eagerly anticipated ECB meeting on Thursday and finally Friday's OPEC meeting and US payroll print - the last before the FOMC in 2 weeks time.
"We think that the equities risk-reward will be less attractive than it was in the past few years. We reduce our equities OW in a balanced portfolio to a minimal one, at 5% vs benchmark, the lowest we have had since the current upcycle started. The long period of indiscriminately buying any dip might be coming to an end."
The recent attacks in Paris evoke strong emotions for many people, but investors need to look through those feelings to the short, medium, and long-term implications. We believe Paris may mark an important turning point for Europe and the global business cycle... but for different reasons than you may think. There is a chance that the slow disintegration of Europe will drive more capital onto US shores, boosting valuations and fueling a blow-off top in the US equity market; but beware global shocks and take any rally as a chance to get defensive.
"As part of an intellectual tradition that saw the salvation of the world in some form of world government... and with the financial backing of the CIA and the US State Department, the Anglo-American establishment was now committed to the creation of a federal United States of Europe." Today, this is still the case. Powerful international lobbies are already at work attempting to prove that any return to democratic self-government will spell doom.
Earlier today, Italian police seized a shipment of 800 pump action shotguns bound for Belgium. Their origin: Turkey. Given what we know about Ankara's connection to Islamic State, one is certainly left to wonder if this isn't one of many "smoking guns" (pun fully intended) that will surface in the weeks and months ahead now that Vladimir Putin has thrust Erdogan's ISIS connections into the limelight.
A society that is given the option to protect itself is not a fearful society, it is a prudent one. The victims of Paris were never allowed the option to protect their lives, nor were they fortunate to have armed defenders present or trained combatants to stop the attack before it reached them. People need the opportunity to secure their own safety since, as the past twelve years has shown, the State will fail them.
- Turkey downs Russian warplane near Syria border, Moscow denies airspace violation (Reuters)
- Investors seek safety in bonds, yen after Turkey downs Russian jet (Reuters)
- Donald Trump Is Not Backing Down (BBG)
- Uber's Exposure May Grow as U.S. Drivers Seek 57.5 Cents a Mile (BBG)
- U.S. issues global travel alert as manhunt continues for Paris attackers (Reuters)
- Stung by Oil, Distressed-Debt Traders See Worst Losses Since '08 (BBG)
It had been a relatively quiet session overnight when as reported previously, the geopolitical situation in the middle east changed dramatically in a moment, when NATO-member country Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet allegedly over Turkish territory even though the plane crashed in Syria, and whose pilots may have been captured by local rebel forces. The news promptly slammed Turkish assets and FX, sending the Lira tumbling, pushing lower European stocks and US equity futures while sending 2 Year German Bunds to record negative yields.
According to The Times, EU leaders are holding "secret" meetings to discuss the future of Europe's cherished Schengen Agreement which allows for passport-free travel within the bloc. As one unnamed diplomat put it, "the current system is simply not working."